Obama's young voters and black voters are no match for Hillary's older, women voters

[bigtree]

Media Downplay Widespread Support for Hillary

Alternet
By Peggy Simpson, Women's Media Center.
February 6, 2008.

{snip}

Clinton won the hotly contested California primary with a huge margin among Hispanics, Asians -- and women. Women voted for her by a commanding 57-39 margin, ignoring appeals last weekend from Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and her cousin Maria Shriver to switch to Obama.

Clinton's endorsements from three children of the late Robert Kennedy had been discounted, when noticed at all, by the East Coast media. They wrote in a Los Angeles Times op-ed piece that ran soon after Caroline Kennedy's bombshell Obama endorsement that, in essence, deeds count more than poetic words. Former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend said she had worked with Clinton for 25 years, as had her two brothers for 15 years, on issues of children and poverty. This may have had resonance with California Latinos.

They stayed hitched to Clinton. They also turned out in record numbers, comprising nearly 30 percent of the California vote, voting 66-33 for Clinton. Hispanic women also voted with Clinton in Obama's home state of Illinois, as well as in other states where they are a significant bloc, such as New Jersey and New Mexico.

Super Tuesday reinforced certain realities. Obama does best with blacks, more affluent and better educated voters and with those under 30. He is doing better with whites than in earlier primaries. Clinton wins with a solid bloc of women voters, a better than 2-1 margin among Hispanics, an even larger one among Asian voters and a major edge among older voters.

That doesn't tell the full story. Women are turning out in record numbers and have averaged 58 percent of Democratic primary voters. Young voters are not. Their turnout Tuesday ranged from 8 percent in New Mexico to 16 percent in California but the average was about 12 percent -- not much more than their historic average. The Iowa caucus surge of young voters has not been replicated elsewhere.

More pertinent is the fact that Obama's clout with young voters is eclipsed by Clinton's strength with voters 60 and over, who form a core chunk of the Democratic electorate. They constituted 30 percent of the voters in New York and Massachusetts, 36 percent in New Mexico, 28 percent in California and 32 percent in Missouri.


http://www.alternet.org/election08/76211/

[Blue_State_Elitist]

1. It usually is the older women that come in groups that make a difference.

[ursi]

2. why the backlash against the young who would have to fight in a war if drafted?

[bigtree]

4. go play somewhere else

[Arkansas Granny]

31. There is no backlash against young voters. From the article:

"Women are turning out in record numbers and have averaged 58 percent of Democratic primary voters. Young voters are not."

Campaigning for and supporting your candidate is all well and good, but it's the votes that count. It doesn't matter how enthusiastic you are about a candidate, unless you show enough commitment to get out and vote for your candidate it's a wasted effort.

[blm]

3. How many of those older women read the BCCI report? If they had they'd never vote

for a Bush or a Clinton.

[bigtree]

5. way off point

start your own thread on that

[blm]

27. Wrong, big. I AM an older woman and this thread is about....ME.

heh. So I'm pondering why SOME older women (who SHOULD be more like me) have never bothered to show an interest in their country's actual historic record enough to become more informed voters.

That's all. ;))))

[bigtree]

32. sweetie

you're a gem

[AX10]

6. She will also win the Latino vote.

Sidenote: Someone needs to tell John Nichols (The Nation) that the tension between Latino's and Blacks is mutual so stop trying pin all the blame on the Latinos.

Also Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy, Maria Shriver are three people one should never listen to when it comes to such serious matters as electing a President.

[bigtree]

9. I don't wish for that tension to have any influence.

we need to come together in the fall

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. And I'm SURE you'd be saying the same thing if they'd backed Hillary.

:eyes:

[LisaL]

35. Oh you can listen to Oprah. You just don't have to do what she says.

[Radical Activist]

7. It takes effort to turn out young voters.

You have to organize. Obama was able to do that in Iowa but not California. Obama can win in November with good organization.

[bigtree]

12. I thought Kerry did as good as anyone

but, in 2004 the youth didn't show up in the numbers projected. I think some education is in order, but the key is to design that drive around the individual states and their particular rules and schedules. I saw where there was some confusion in neighboring Va. over if they were supposed to vote yesterday.

[RaleighNCDUer]

21. That's because the youth vote was still tied to Dean.

Kerry was a poor compromise.

Just as those youth who ARE turing out in record numbers for Obama are just as likely to stay home in November if Hillary gets the nom.

[Radical Activist]

Youth showed up in large numbers in '04.

Larger than in the past.
At the same time Kerry said very little to young voters. They weren't going to get out and vote based on what he did during or after Vietnam, which is what half the election was about. Young people showed up to vote against Bush but no one showed up to vote FOR Kerry. He didn't give them much of a reason to.
Obama will do better because he speaks to young people and gives them something to vote for and not just someone to vote against.

[bigtree]

29. you've got a good case to argue on that

from Rock the Vote:

It’s true that there was a lot of talk about young voters in both 2004 and 2006 – but for very good reason. After a nearly continuous downward turnout trend since 1972, turnout among 18-29 year olds was up significantly in 2004 and 2006.

* In 2004, 20.1 million 18-29 year olds voted, a 4.3 million jump over 2000. The turnout increase (9% points) among the youngest voters was more than double that of the overall electorate (4% points). (U.S. Census Bureau)

* In 2006, the youth increased by 1.9 million over 2002 levels. Turnout among the youngest voters grew by 3% points over 2002, twice the turnout increase (1.7% points) of older voters. (U.S. Census Bureau)

In fact, in 2004 the turnout rate of 18-29 year olds was higher than all but one year (1992) since 18-20 year olds got voting rights in 1972.

more: http://blog.rockthevote.com/2007/12/for-media-young-voter-myths-and-facts.html

[Radical Activist]

39. Plus, its harder to get young people to vote in a primary.

If there had been turn out comparable to a general election then the youth vote would have made a bigger difference for Obama. He had a very strong organizational effort to get them voting in Iowa but California came too fast and is too large. That's why Hillary won CA.

[Raven]

8. I'm an "older woman" for Obama and many of my "older women" friends

are for Obama and some of my rock solid Republican friends are for Obama...Obama will roll right over John McCain.

[Freedomofspeech]

48. same here.....

I don't have one female friend supporting Hillary.

[marlakay]

10. Don't be so sure both my sister in law and me

both white middle agers are voting for obama. and I know alot of others...even my 80 yr old mom.

[bigtree]

15. that's not bearing out in the stats. Let's hope it pulls even in the fall.

[book_worm]

11. The thing is that Dem women will vote for Obama in November, not sure about Independents

for Hillary.

[robbedvoter]

18. The thing is that every time Dem women hear, read this one, they re-examine that

so call wisdom - and the fact that you don't see how offensive it is, makes it even worse. Some of us, emotional Dem women are kinda fed up with those attitudes - you might to dial back the arrogance a bit.

[RaleighNCDUer]

26. Huh?

Are you saying that lifelong Dem women will NOT vote for Obama if he gets the nomination?

[cali]

13. We'll see. But I notice that the author neglected something

very important. White men are going for Obama- not Clinton, and ssdly, I think this is a trend.

[bigtree]

17. actually, I've seen them about evenly split

[cali]

22. no. I'll try and find the article I read about it.

even though I'm for Obama I hate seeing that stuff. Just as I hate seeing the AA vote and the latino vote so polarized. It's funny but it doesn't bother me to see older voters or younger voters or more and less affluent voters going in a certain way.

[bigtree]

30. well, this is the primary

I imagine we'll be unified against the republican by then.

[H2O Man]

24. I do not think

that is a bad thing. There are different groups within the democratic party. If any group made a decision based upon hatred of another group (racism, sexism, etc) then it would be sad. There is no doubt that some people are motivated by fear, anger, and hatred -- DU provides solid evidence of that. But I assume that most groups are deciding who they will support, based upon the qualifications of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

[faithfulcitizen]

16. Not to mention white men. nt

[eleny]

19. I'm an older woman voter

Gobama.

[pampango]

20. It is amazing that Obama has matched Hillary given her support from women and older voters.

Is that your point?

He must have something going for him. He must be getting his share of votes from somewhere, if not from women, older voters and Hispanics. Will Obama's support fade because the people who support him are less dependable or don't vote? So far his groups are matching up fairly evenly against hers. If his support fades, I'll offer my congratulations to Hillary.

We will see.

[bigtree]

23. I think the dynamic of the primary has suited his campaign well.

He still has some major state problems, but in states with defined demographics which favor him, he does well. Do you see a scattering of that support with the scattered demographics? I'm just talking out of my ass on this, but it would explain Cali.

[pampango]

42. Not sure I understand.

If by "states with defined demographics which favor him" you mean states with lots of African Americans, he does indeed to well in those states and he has done well in states without many AAs. Similarly, Hillary has done well in states with lots of Hispanics and she has done well in states that don't have that many.

They each have bases of support (I suppose all presidential candidates do), then they strive to reach out to other voters. If Obama can't appeal successfully to voters in states without a lot of Blacks, then he won't win the nomination. He's done well at this so far, but who knows if it will continue.

[bigtree]

43. I think he does have a broad section of support, but these numbers cited in the article

show weaknesses against Clinton in these groups. I would expect those differences in support to mostly disappear in the general election, no matter who is the nominee.

[Avalux]

25. Well, this older woman voter is not "Hillary's".

I can think on my own and unlike a lot of them, won't vote for her just because she's a woman.

[MoJoWorkin]

47. I'm with you , sparosnare. I am a 62 year old white Grandma for Obama

[RamboLiberal]

28. I think those older women voters would turn out for Obama

in the GE. I think though that most of the young voters energized by Obama will not turn out for Hillary. And there's a very good chance a good chunk of the African-American vote will be very tempted to sit this one out if they feel the Democratic party and Clinton have slighted them.

I also think the Hispanic vote would turn out for Obama over the xenophobic Repukes and a pandering McCain for the GE.

IMHO Hillary has too many voters who would never pull the lever for her to win the states needed to get the electoral college numbers needed to win.

Obama I think has the chance to pick up more states than Hillary.

But who knows - our party is taking a risk this season with either candidate - but hey either way feels good to me over what the Repukes offer. It's just my opinion that Obama gives us the better chance to win the WH. But I'm voting for whomever wins the nomination. I just hope what happens with the party and I'm speaking of a brokered convention, super delegates, trying to seat Mich and Florida, etc., won't be something that turns Dems against each other. Even if this happens and I'm pissed and holding my nose I see no alternative but to still vote for the candidate even if I'm sending flaming letters to Howard Dean and the DNC.

BTW I'm a 55 year old white female who will vote for Obama in the Pennsylvania primary.

[LisaL]

33. In a state like Florida, older voters are going to be really

important, if one wishes to win a general election.

[Bread and Circus]

34. This one is even better:

http://www.alternet.org/election08/76098/

[bigtree]

38. that's been discussed here.

I think some consideration should be given, however, to the patterns which have already occurred. You are right, however, to suppose that these voters would respond in a more enthusiastic and organized manner in the general election against the republican candidate. In that effort, we really have no way of knowing how the campaign of, say, McCain, will affect our nominee's appeal to these groups.

[hfojvt]

36. Isn't that kinda hard to tell?

Historical turnout, that is. These are primaries, and many states have not had competetive primaries since 1992. In our last caucus in 2004, there were less than 20 participants. This year we had 600. That feels like a record turnout in all demographics.

[in_cog_ni_to]

37. I AM WOMAN, HEAR ME ROAR!

Older women are smart, level-headed, don't drink much Kool-Aid and really aren't very fond of cults.:)

GO, HILLARY!

[Blue-Jay]

40. He is, after all, The Black Candidate.

[bigtree]

41. a great deal of his support leading to victory came from the votes of blacks

in states like Ga., S.C., and Alabama. That bloc was diluted in states with a more scattered, diverse population where Clinton was able to pull in Latinos, Asians, and women of all races to give her the edge.

But, Obama also has a decent draw on white voters, male and female, which make him extremely competitive with Clinton (the white, woman candidate ;))

[madrchsod]

44. geezers rule!

those kids and blacks don`t know shit..they are being brainwashed by the cult of obama!

[bigtree]

45. the 'kids' need better support from the party in the primary season

[madrchsod]

46. you are correct..if we lose them now...

well the party lost me during the 60`s, i had hope with bobby then he was was killed...i gave up being political until the mid 90`s

[Jed Dilligan]

49. That's the problem with shutting down the whole

public education enterprise: people under 50 don't even know what a primary or a caucus is. I find it disgusting that these people with demonstrably less stake in the future dominate our choices.