Polls! Polls! Polls! Get 'em here!

[neverborn]

USA Today Gallup Poll

KERRY 52
BUSH 44

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-03-08-poll_x.htm

YEAH!

State polls: (In play: AZ, FL, IN, IA, MI, MO, NV, OR, PA) Oh yeah!

Arizona
Arizona State University. 2/19-22. MoE 4.7%. (November results)

Bush 46 (51)
Kerry 44 (33)

California
LA Times Poll. 2/18-22. MoE 4%.

Bush 40
Kerry 53

Connecticut
UConn. 2/26-29. MoE 4.4%.

Bush 36
Kerry 49

Florida
Miami Herald. 3/3-4. MoE 3.5%.

Bush 43 (51)
Kerry 49 (38)

Illinois
Research 2000. 3/1-3. MoE 4%.

Bush 36
Kerry 54

Indiana
SurveyUSA. 2/15-17. MoE 4.2%
Bush 51
Kerry 45

Iowa
Des Moines Register. 2/7-11. MoE 3.5%.

Bush 42
Kerry 49

Kansas
SurveyUSA. 3/3-4. MoE 4.5%

Bush 57
Kerry 39

Kentucky
SurveyUSA. 2/14-16. MoE 3.8%.

Bush 57
Kerry 41

Maryland
Mason-Dixon. 2/23-25 MoE 4%

Kerry 47 Bush 38

Massachusetts
Boston Herald. 2/27-28. MoE 4.8%.

Bush 28
Kerry 57

Michigan
Detroit News. 2/26-3/1. MoE 4%.

Bush 40
Kerry 46

Missouri
Decision Research (D) 2/14-19. MoE 3.5%

Kerry 49
Bush 46

Nevada
SurveyUSA. 2/11-12. MoE 4.5%

Bush 49
Kerry 48

New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire. 2/4-12. MoE 4.3%. (October results)

Bush 38 (49)
Kerry 53 (38)

North Carolina
SurveyUSA. 2/23-25. MoE 3.9%

Bush 53
Kerry 42

Oregon
Oregonian. 3/4. MoE 5%.

Bush 40
Kerry 45

Pennsylvania
Franklin & Marshall College. 2/19-22.

Bush 46
Kerry 47

Rhode Island
Brown University. 2/7-9. MoE 5%. (September results)

Bush 31 (36)
Kerry 53 (39)

South Dakota
Mason-Dixon. 2/5-7. MoE 4.7%.

Bush 50
Kerry 39

Utah
The Desert News. 2/19. MoE 5%.

Bush 64
Kerry 31

Washington
SurveyUSA. 2/4-5. MoE 3.2%

Kerry 55
Bush 43

[BootinUp]

1. PA, MO -tight, But looks very good overall -eom-

[lancdem]

7. I realize November is a long way away

but we need to keep in mind that undecideds traditionally swing heavily to the challenger, so if Kerry's running about even with Bush in some states with a decent percentage undecided he should win them.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Iowa bodes well for us.

Kerry is WAAAAAAY ahead of Gore's showing there. If Kerry can spend the kind of time/intensity campaigning in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida as he did there, then he will win easily.

[Adelante]

3. Amazing numbers, thanks.

GO DEMS!!

:bounce:

[Kathleen04]

4. Kerry should make a push for AZ and NV

We're behind, but they're tight races..

:)

[silver state d]

6. we will deliver NV

you have my word

[CalebHayes]

18. Nah, lets just keep what we got.

[Kathleen04]

21. Somebody pointed out below that

we actually are ahead in AZ.

Only 1 pt. behind in Nevada.

They're winnable.

[BootinUp]

22. With a little luck

This could be a landslide in November. :toast:

[Kathleen04]

24. Yeah!

I'm hoping for a victory that somewhat resembles Clinton's in '92..that would be excellent. :bounce:

[Renew Deal]

5. Those are very good.

AZ, NV are in play with PA. PA is the only blue state in play.

[lancdem]

9. Kerry will win PA

That is my prediction

[osaMABUSh]

12. I agree: Kerry wins Pa easily

I live here (Pgh) and a sense no new support for Bush. The 'T' of PA (the rural parts) will always go repuke but the urban areas are solidly blue.

[osaMABUSh]

13. Also, Teresa Kerry is well liked in Pa since she lived here

when wife of Sen. Hienz (R) and supported many local causes.

[lancdem]

10. Missouri and Florida are two other red states

we have a shot at.

[bornskeptic]

8. You've got the numbers reversed on the ASU Arizona poll.

It should be Kerry 46 Bush 44.

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

[Kathleen04]

14. Excellent!

Thanks for figuring that out, great news.

[osaMABUSh]

11. Here's what I want to see in a polling results:

Will more 2000 Bush (and Nader) voters vote for Kerry or more 2000 Gore voters go for Bush? I think the it has to be a net positive for Kerry.

[jfxgillis]

15. Everyone on this thread ---

-- Please go to "Ask the Adminstrator" and kick/support my idea that DU open a sub-forum devoted strictly to scientific polls and scientific polling analysis news stories.

It's the LOCAL polls with potentially national resonance that are so interesting and so tough for people outside the localities involved to monitor. If we all bring polls to everyone's attention, we could literally create a valuable resource.

[spooky3]

16. Hey, jfxgillis, I like your idea and proposed something like it

a month or two ago, but it was nixed. maybe this time it will be different.

[jfxgillis]

20. Damn ... I was wondering why

The Mods didn't answer.

What was the reasoning?

[elperromagico]

25. I concur.

I got all excited during the last DU pledge drive because I thought when they said "Latest Polls," they meant the latest state-by-state polls.

I'm a poll junkie. I enjoy poring through them and trying to calculate how well our man Kerry will do against Bush. :)

[spooky3]

17. Wow, even bright RED Indiana is close!

[elperromagico]

26. That's one number that really amazes me.

If Kerry is within 6 points of Bush in a state which the Republican typically wins by about 10-15 points...

This could be interesting.

[AmyStrange]

19. Three words - Dean in Dec...

Polls can turn on a dime faster than you can spit. This is not an anti-Kerry post, this is merely a cautionary tale,


Dave (AmyStrange.com) Ayotte
Please, regularly check the One Missing Person (is one person too many) searchable website for the latest (and archived) missing person news stories:

http://NEWS.OneMissingPerson.org/




Serious Serial Killer discussion:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SK-Cafe/

[Kathleen04]

23. True..but I do think that Democrats switching...

to another Democrat is different.

I think that mostly the Independants and somewhat non-partisan people may fluctuate between Kerry and Bush more heavily than Democrats.

Things are not written in stone by any means, but it's a good snapshot of how things are looking for Bush.

If we see these kind of numbers after he spends his 200 million, then I'll be thrilled. :)

[AmyStrange]

27. agreed except...

the uncommitted in Dec were enough to swing the election to Kerry. What's the uncommitted in thse polls,

d

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

28. your numbers are fliped in FL and AZ--Kerry is ahead in both

The numbers are good, but those same polls actually showed Kerry in the place of Bush and Bush in Kerry. In otherwords, Kerry is ahead by 2% in AZ and 6% in FL.

[Zhade]

29. God, I hope those numbers hold in Florida.

My family lives in Florida. If the margin isn't wide, rest assured there will be hard-to-uncover theft.

The fact is, if it's not a landslide in November, the assumed theft attempts may succeed. And if there is a blowout, the b*shies could very well halt the election. We should be aware of this possibility.

To be perfectly honest, I believe there will be people taking to the streets in November, one way or the other. I hope I'm wrong.

None of this, by the way, is to say I like or trust Kerry. I don't. However, I loathe the b*sh administration with a white-hot rage I've not felt in a long, long time. They must be stopped.

And then we must make sure Kerry keeps his nose clean.

[JCMach1]

30. PA, OH, FL, and MO are shaping up to be the battleground states

Hit the trifecta of those and you win election!