What States Can Dean Deliver that Gore Lost in 2004?

[deminflorida]

Good Question being asked in South Carolina?

"There is no doubt Howard Dean has struck a chord with a significant chunk of the Democratic base, but how that translates into enough electoral votes to win the White House remains problematic. One question I put to the campaigns of some Democratic hopefuls is that assuming the election is as close as in 2000, what states can your candidate win that Al Gore lost? The Dean people don’t want to answer this question yet, stating their belief that Gov. Dean will run hard in all states."

http://www.ydsc.org/index.php?option=articles&task=viewarticle&artid=9&Itemid=3

[ithacan]

1. West Virginia

Gore lost because of guns. Dean won't.

[deminflorida]

3. I Agree with that one....

If he takes the campaign to the outdoors shows....fishing, etc...

He could do well in the South...

[TLM]

29. WV, TN, and CO on the gun issue alone...

He might take MO as well on guns.

He'd likely take NH too.

[Josh]

35. Dean will not win ANYTHING on guns alone -

people who vote with their guns in mind already have a candidate. His name is George W. Bush.

[ldoolin]

53. See my reply below...

...because it applies to your post too.

Many of the people who have crossed over and voted Republican lately over the gun issue are lifelong Democrats who have a legitimate fear that some in the Democratic Party have universal gun confiscation or registration as a goal.

We can prove to them that their fears are ungrounded, and win them back to the Democratic ticket, by nominating a presidential candidate who has stated that he will draw the line at any significant new federal gun laws.

[Josh]

57. You could be right

I remained worried, nevertheless that Dean cannot compete in many states that Gore *won*.

[Bucky]

41. Typical self-connivance from Dean supporters

This is one reason why Northeastern liberal intellectuals are not trusted and often disliked in Flyover Country (as discussed in another thread). The temerity it takes to suggest that Dean can win over moderate voters just because he has a right wing opinion on this one issue--a viewpoint that he shares with Bush, by the way--is not just absurd. It's dismissive of the intelligence of all voters in the states mentioned (West Virginia, Tennessee, and Colorado).

The reasons we lose in these states are diverse and deal with a broad range of cultural issues where the Republicans are trusted and the Democrats are not. For Dean's people (not Dean, btw, just his more arrogant supporters) to think they can win votes by tossing a few ideological pennies to the peasants as his carriage splashes past them is crude and numbskulled. This only reinforces the perception that Dean will tank and tank badly in the general election.

[ldoolin]

51. You apparently don't live in any of those states

I watched rural counties in 2000 that were considered safely Democratic vote for Bush, in one case the very first ever that county went R. Ever. I'm talking about a county that voted for McGovern in 72, Carter in 80, Mondale in 84, Dukakis in 88 - and Bush in 2000. Signs like "Vote Bush Or Register Guns" were a common sight.

The perception, deserved or not, was that Al Gore wanted to push for universal gun registration. Blue collar Democrats in rural areas alienated by the Democratic Party's pandering to the Sarah Brady group crossed over and voted for Bush. That combined with Gore's alienating many liberals with his free trade, "New Democrat" views which led to some defecting to Nader, sank us. Gore lost.

Anyone who thinks these blue-collar Democrats aren't going to come *back* to the Democratic ticket once we nominate somebody who has clearly stated that he will draw the line on any new gun laws, is deluded. Anyone who thinks that the Nader voters aren't going to come back to the Democratic ticket once we nominate somebody who is unafraid to stand up against Bush's Iraq war and criticize the Patriot Act, is also deluded.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

52. Winning WV back where it belongs will not do it alone

and those same signs this year will say: "Vote Bush or register Marriage"

[ldoolin]

55. WV alone...

...would have put Gore over the top in 2000 and made Florida irrelevant.

Had the gun issue not been a big turn-off, we might easily have also won: Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire.

That comment about registering marraige doesn't rate a response.

[Phelan]

46. Gore is from TN and he didn't carry it

There is a real southern mistrust of yankees that he would have to work through

[Bucky]

42. Dean will lose WV on fake issue of "Gay Marriage" & real issue of taxes

Dean will pick up New Hampshire. But I can see him costing us Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, and possibly Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Dean's only hope for victory is a total Bush Administration melt down. That's one hell of a gamble.

[Northwind]

2. All of them.

'Nuff said.

[jmaier]

5. Actually

That isn't enough said. How to get the electoral outcome is pretty much what this is ALL about.

West Virginia is a possibility (4 votes).
New Hampshire is a possibility (5 votes).

Assuming he carries the states Gore carried that still leaves him 1 vote shy and I just can't find it. If he can REALLY mobilize blue collar union & urban votes then Ohio is a possibility and that would carry the victory (20 votes).

My other concern is that he will have a challenge carrying a few of the states which Gore actually won but in very, very tight matchups, notably Wisconsin.

[ferg]

6. WI, MN, OR, WA should be shoe-ins for Dean

Unlike Gore. That's one of the advantages Dean will have over the Gore campaign.

That leaves Dean with more time to deal with the marginal states.

I'd say the main pickups would be WV, NH, AZ and NV.

I don't know enough about OH to say, though it would be a great pickup.

Another advantage Dean will have is the grassroots campaign should make a number of states like VA, AK, and CO interesting without forcing Dean himself to spend too much time/money there.

I'm not mentioning FL because the combination of Dibold/Choicepoint fraud means that Jeb will deliver the state no matter what kind of a majority the Democrat gets.

[deminflorida]

11. Nope, I disagree,

Florida is a huge battle ground state...with Bob Graham not having to defend his seat in the Senate, he'll be supporting the Dem candidate tooth and nail, Don't kid yourself...he is huge in this state as far as popularity and respect goes.

Bill Mcbride the guy that ran against Jeb Bush in 2002 is a very, very good Tampa lawyer, and you can bet his eye is on Jeb this time. The republicans are going to be under a microscope down here, and the possiblity of being gang-raped in a state prison doesn't sit too well with them. I don't think your going to see too many hands in the cookie jar this time.

[ferg]

13. FL: hope you're right

[ldoolin]

56. pickups

I'd say the main pickups would be WV, NH, AZ and NV.

These are the exact same four states I'm thinking, plus Florida especially if Bob Graham is on the ticket. I can't honestly see the Repukes picking up any states that went for Gore in 2000. I suspect the gay marraige non-issue might put a few borderline states like Tennessee and Louisiana more firmly in the R column, but those states were in the R column in 2000 to begin with. Assuming Nader doesn't run, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon will be more firmly in the D column than in 2000.

[graelent]

8. Nevada

Nevada is still very angry about Bush lying about not moving forward with the Yucca Mountain Nuclear depository.

This will be a campaign issue and could convert Nevada.

[KittyWampus]

26. Really?Dean Tried Shipping Nuclear Waste To Sierra Blanca

Texas....

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. Dean hurt himself in the south with that Flag comment.

.

[deminflorida]

7. I Don't Think So...

I heard several Black Leaders in S.C. this morning talking on NPR. They say it was an oversight, and it was just Dean being honest about how important it was to reach out to white southern males with gun-racks in their trucks as well as blacks in the south.

Check it out at NPR.ORG, but you'll have to pay for the transcript.

[billbuckhead]

12. I listen to NPR in the morning and I heard it, but I don't believe it

They were just being polite. NPR also "used" college students to say Dean was a liberal. Gephardt got more attention than Clark. It was more NPR propaganda.

[billbuckhead]

9. Cause of Dean's gun buddies we'll carry Shangri-la &Eldorado too

What bullshi#! Dems are losing all the states that are predominately fundementalist. The gun lobby keeps losing in religiously diverse Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Dems keep losing in fundie land regardless of their gun stands. Roy Barnes in Georgia was as gun friendly as a governor in a state with a large urban population could be, but still lost. The idea that promiscuous gun regulation trumps civil unions in fundieland is way off base.

[Scott Lee]

60. Yeah, so badly that he's running at the top in Georgia.

If Dean doesn't stop this, he may find himself winning all the South.

[Michigander4Dean]

10. Any state with a significant single-issue gun electorate

Guns are why Gore lost West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Tennessee, and perhaps Virginia, Arizona, and Montana.

[hedda_foil]

14. Don't forget New Mexico.

Very winnable.

[IronLionZion]

17. Didn't Gore win New Mexico?

[Bucky]

43. By a hair thin margin. Bush+BBV makes NM red for Dubya w/ Dean

:(

[JohnKleeb]

15. Guns on VA?

Yes Guns are important here, but I dont see Dean or even Clark winning here. IIRC even Carter didn't win here.

[IronLionZion]

16. He has to fight like a motherF***er in PA

Guns and unions may help him a little. This is no shoe-in for either party. It is a ruthless battleground and I want Dean or the Dem nominee to campaign all over this state.

With Nader out of the picture he should fight hard in Florida as well.

[ryharrin]

28. He's already within 6% against Bush, so its definitely possible.

He's doing the best out of all the candidates against bush there.

[kaitykaity]

18. On the gun issue alone, Dean could get1

Arkansas and Tennessee. I also think he could
do well in Louisiana (with the help of Senator
Landrieu, and the new Dem governor).

[coloradodem2005]

19. Ohio and West Virginia at least.

He could stand to benefit from the steel tariffs being repealed. Being pro-gun could help him in the Southwest. Bob Graham could help him in Florida.

[goforit]

20. Virginia.....Tennesee.....Louisiana......Alabama......Indiana

I feel these states are not happy with the GOP.

It should be interesting.

Bush is most certainly not know for his true "COMPASSION"!!!!

[billbuckhead]

21. Here's proof that guns are "code" that they aren't the real reason

<http://www.buzzflash.com/interviews/03/12/int03326.html>

UC Berkeley Sociologist Arlie Hochschild answers the question, "Why are 50% of Blue Collar White Males Planning to Vote for Bush in 2004, Even When He is Picking Their Pockets and Stealing the Futures of Their Children?"

A BUZZFLASH INTERVIEW

"George W. Bush is sinking in the polls, but a few beats on the war drum could reverse that trend and re-elect him in 2004. Ironically, the sector of American society now poised to keep him in the White House is the one which stands to lose the most from virtually all of his policies -- blue-collar men. A full 49 percent of them and 38 percent percent of blue-collar women told a January 2003 Roper poll they would vote for Bush in 2004." -- Arlie Hochschild

Perhaps the central paradox for a Democratic presidential candidate is figuring out how to attract some of the 50% of blue collar workers who might vote for Bush. Howard Dean awkwardly addressed the issue when he referred to the need to attract guys with "Confederate flag bumper stickers." Dean used the wrong metaphor, but he was correct in identifying a key election challenge for the Democrats.

Recently, we read a TomDispatch.Com article by Arlie Hochschild, "Let Them Eat War," and were impressed by her understanding of the issue. Hochschild doesn't mince words: Bush's "policy -- and this his political advisor Karl Rove has carefully calibrated -- is something like the old bait-and-switch. He continues to take the steaks out of the blue-collar refrigerator and to declare instead, 'let them eat war.' He has been, in effect, strip-mining the emotional responses of blue-collar men to the problems his own administration is so intent on causing."


-------------snip------------------

[Phelan]

47. If Dean wins Alabama in the general election I'll buy everyone here a car

It may be a Kia but hey

[quaker bill]

22. Florida

Remember, Gore won it in 2000, if the votes were only counted. The scrubbed black voters have been restored to the rolls thanks to the NAACP suit.

[flpoljunkie]

45. Not true, Quaker Bill. Tallahassee Democrat indicates otherwise, 11/30/03

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democrat/2003/11/30/news/local/7376572.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Posted on Sun, Nov. 30, 2003

SPECIAL REPORT: DEJA VOTE?

Hurdles remain
Florida's voter database won't be ready in time
By Nancy Cook Lauer
DEMOCRAT CAPITOL BUREAU CHIEF


Florida has spent tens of millions of dollars on new equipment, voter education and poll worker training since the 2000 election meltdown. But none of those reforms will matter if the would-be voter is denied a chance to cast a ballot to begin with.

And after spending almost $6 million to create - and then fix - a database to ensure accuracy in county voter rolls by weeding out ineligible voters, Florida will not meet a federal requirement to establish a central voter-registration database in time for the 2004 presidential election. The state now is seeking a waiver until 2006.

Many state lawmakers seem unconcerned. A Division of Elections update on how the state is implementing federal requirements earlier this month before a Senate appropriations subcommittee lasted about five minutes and drew no questions from committee members.

But Rep. Chris Smith, D-Fort Lauderdale, appointed by Gov. Jeb Bush to a task force to fix the state's election problems, called the failure to establish the central registration database "a major concern."

...more...

[John_H]

23. A very short list--NH While Clark picks up WV, AR, FL, and maybe even OH

[MIMStigator]

24. Dean won't even win NH

a poll last week showed him 30 points behind * in NH where they know him

[maxanne]

25. premature

speculation.

Another 9 months of Dubya and there will be plenty of converts.

[kaitykaity]

30. What poll exactly?

Any comparisons to where Clinton was against Bush I
at this same time in the campaign?

Just curious.

[Bill of Rights]

27. I'd like to speculate about 3 candidates

Dean - Florida. I think the masses are going to come out for this one. These would be the masses who are not usually polled.

Gephardt - Florida, Missouri and Ohio. He has a great shot at beating Bush. Almost makes me want to support him as my #1.

Clark - Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana.

[HFishbine]

38. "Almost makes me want to support him as my #1."

What? That slime ball?

[SaintLouisBlues]

49. Gephardt is an honorable public servant

and would make a very good president.

Slimeball? Grow up.

[dusty64]

31. My first thoughts

would be NH, WV, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio. Depending on the VP choice (I have my theories) Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. The South Is The Most Culturally Conservative Region In The Nation

and Howard Dean is the most culturally liberal major candidate in the race...

The South is the most religious region in the nation and Howard Dean is the most secular major candidate in the race...

The South is the most pro-Iraq war region in the nation and Howard Dean is the most anti-Iraq war major candidate in the race...


These are the facts...

Make your own conclusions....

[9119495]

33. The South is the most conservative...so none of our guys

will pull votes there. Forget about SC, AL, and MS--they would vote for a Bush-Hitler ticket. The idea that Clark, Gep, or Edwards could get Southerners to turn against "a president guided by god" and one "from the South" is rediculous.

So, since you've directed us to make our own conclusions, I'll point you to states already mentioned in this thread, notably WV, NV, OH, AZ--so few are needed if most (not all, even) Gore states are held.

Remember, Dean has the grass roots growing--I don't see any other democrat that will be able to get out the vote as Dean will--even though I like most of them.

[HFishbine]

34. Bank on it...

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Louisian, Missourri, Arizona, West Virginia, Alaska, Indiana and Ohio.

[theboss]

36. Maybe WV and NH

My confidence is low at the moment.

[Padraig18]

37. Only correct answer, absent a crystal ball:

No one can possibly know, at this juncture. :shrug:

[dpbrown]

39. None - and a tie is a loss in 2004

We need a strong Democratic alternative to Bush in order to beat the Republican margin of theft and the shift in electoral votes to Bush states.

[On the Road]

40. If Florida is Registered as a Win This Time

Dean could actually LOSE Pennsylvania or Illinois and and still win the electoral college.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

50. No way. If we trade Florida for Pa. we still lose

check the map... http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[mzmolly]

44. Well with recent Nader news ... FLORIDA !

:hi:

[Bucky]

48. It's only recent Nader *rumor*. Hope should be grounded in facts

[dolstein]

54. Before you get to that question, wouldn't it make sense to ask

whether Dean could carry all the states Gore carried in 2000? Deaniacs seem to accept this proposition as a foregone conclusion, but I just don't see it.

[Padraig18]

58. N-O O-N-E K-N-O-W-S!

It's all pure speculation at this point, much like ancient Roman augurs examining pigeon entrails--- and just about as accurate or useful... :eyes:

[Renew Deal]

59. The state of depression

if we lose. OK, seriously... Dean is an unknown. He will either win 25 states or lose 49-50. It is hard to say how America will take him. His recent performences make me think he will win 1-2. It depends on the day, and that's one of the many things that are scary about Dean.

[frustrated_lefty]

61. Louisiana, Florida, Tennesee

Gore lost Tenn due to his NRA stance.

Louisiana and Florida are different stories, butI think Dean can deliver there.