Analysis : Obama's average vote share 16% higher.

[tinrobot]

Interesting analysis over at The Fresh Political. When Obama wins, he wins big. When Clinton wins, it's by a much smaller margin.

Analysis and chart here:

http://thefreshpolitical.blogspot.com/2008/02/obama-leads-in-delegates-states-and.html

Out of 31 states that have held their contests so far, Obama has defeated Clinton in 20 of those states. The margins of victory in each contest seems to differ by candidate.

According to this data, Obama's victories are both greater in number, and magnitude than Clinton's victories. The Median percentage in all contests as of Monday shows Obama performing much better on average. Obama's median percentage is 48.5% to Clinton's 32%. The disparity reflects Clinton's inability to perform well in smaller states, especially those holding caucuses. The average margin of victory in caucus states is even greater for Obama.

Interesting how lopsided these margins are, and more interesting how the media hasn't picked it up.

[Big Blue Marble]

1. Thank you for finding this.

K&R

[philly_bob]

2. Does this include caucuses & elections, or just elections? /nt

[tinrobot]

4. Both, I believe.

n/t

[JCMach1]

3. I am sure if you run the numbers you would find a similar

pattern in the 2000 election. Wow! look how much * won in Utah and Idaho!

To make it worse, it is statistically invalid as you have two different categories: Caucuses and Primaries.

2% in the California Primary was probably= to 10-20-30% or more of some of the Caucus states if you judge by population.

As usual... there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.