What do you think is the chance of this happening again?

[Poiuyt]

What if bush loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College vote again. A lot of polls show Kerry leading in the popular vote but the state by state surveys show bush picking up more electoral votes at this point. I would think the chance of this happening again would be slim, but I wish the electoral surveys looked better:

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php

http://www.censeoresearch.com/2004pres.htm

[For PaisAn]

1. Weird

I just finished looking at this site http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php
and then came on DU and came across your post.

I had been trying figuring out what single states would give us a win. Here's what I came up with:

This year the electoral votes in several states have changed from the 2000 numbers. We were short by 5 electoral votes in 2000 and we have a net loss of 7 electoral votes from the changes and we can add 1 vote for DC(hoping we don't get another abstention). So we'd need a state with 11 or more electoral votes. There are 9 states that voted Repub in 2000 that have 11 or more electoral votes. They are:
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
North Carolina - 15
Ohio - 20
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Virginia - 13

So we either pick up one of these states or else we'd have to pick up more than one of the others.

It definitely makes me nervous.

[patricia92243]

2. In N.C. we have a Dem governor, but it does't seem to help.

[For PaisAn]

4. I know, go figure?

NY votes Democratic for president but we have a repug Governor. I don't understand how this happens.

[ibegurpard]

3. I really think Ohio is the one to go for.

eom

[For PaisAn]

5. Was thinking the same thing.

They've had huge job losses and can't be happy with Bush and with 20 electoral votes it would be a slam dunk instead of a nail-biter.

[Seldona]

6. I think Florida is looking good.

The Florida Dem's I know are some of the most galvanized I have met.

I don't think anyone is holding a bigger grudge over the 2000 debacle than Florida Dem's.

At least I am hoping.

And there is the Log Cabin Repub factor as well.

I can guarantee you there is one contingent of his that will be staying home. Maybe even enough to decide another close race all by themselves.

Like I said though, hopefully.

[For PaisAn]

7. Hoping but

not expecting Florida. BBV & Jeb. They will not concede Florida under any circumstances. They will use all means of corruption, intimidation, purging, etc. They will take (steal)Florida again.

Good point about the Log Cabin Repugs. Do you know how many there are?

[Kathleen04]

8. On Inside Politics...

the representative for the Log Cabin Republicans said there are 1 million who voted for Bush in 2000.

[patricia92243]

9. Would they vote Dem now or just not vote at all?

[For PaisAn]

10. Wow

Did he or she indicate how they might be voting this time?

[Kathleen04]

11. He said they were going to have a meeting

to discuss who to endorse or not endorse.

They have a negative ad that shows Cheney in the 2000 debate saying that gay marriage should be left to the states and criticizing Bush..so they are definately angry.