Ladies and gentlemen, Karl Rove presents "The Swing States"

[JPJones]

Based on ad buys from the crooks and liars

Obvious:
Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Ohio.

Good News:
Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada and West Virginia.

Sadly in play:
Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

What went wrong?:
Maine, Delaware and Washington !?! (Kerry is not buying ads in Del. or Wash., however)

Two more that I think will see ads:
Louisiana - Gov. Blanco (D, elected '03); Senators Breaux (D) and Landrieu (D)
Tennessee - Gov. Bredesen (D, elected 02)

This all means that Kerry starts with 165 EV and Bush starts with 170 EV. If Washington and Delaward aren't actually in play, Kerry starts with 179 EV. How the remaining states break is impossible to predict, but I think Russert is right: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0312.html
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040312/ap_on_el_pr/bush_ads_4

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Shrub lie-ads can be countered

with direct political action. That's what we're doing in Newton Co AR this weekend and next. We're having a rally/teach-in next weekend where we plan to highlight Bush's lies. We'll have voter registration available and guest speakers. Should be an interesting time.

[JPJones]

2. Good for you.

Make sure you invite the media to your events. The rule on our local primary campaign was - if you have more than 5 people confirmed for an event, send out a press release.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

21. Media was there

and they took photos of this week's protest. Should be on the front page of the local paper.

[King of New Orleans]

3. there are enough people in Newton Co

to have a rally?

Absolutely love the Western end of the Buffalo River.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

24. Glad you like it!

Hope to see you at the bridge in Boxley Valley some day!

yes, there are enough people. :) We protested the war last year-and are at it again, with an additional cast of characters. Had good feedback with a couple of folks joining in spontaniously.

[WiseMen]

4. Great Move: Would be good to have a "Lies and Liars Teaching Month"

nationwide. There is enough available materials in the form of
videos and books to do this.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

25. That is a really good idea!

Bet Franken would promote it on his own new radio show, and there could be teach ins all over the nation!

[rucky]

5. I think you'll also find a connection between these states

and RW radio play.

in Portland, for example, we're mostly Democrat or Green but the airwaves are dominated by the wingnuts because of the surrounding area. That explans WA, OR, MN & NM, at least.

[Darkamber]

6. Washington Ads

It has been very interesting to see our airwaves filled up with ads all of a sudden. Both Radio and TV are currently filled with Bush ads.

However, there are anti-Bush ads on by move-on and another group. Washington is a very much an 'anti-tax' state and Bush could be trying to push that with his "Kerry is raising taxes" message.

However, though the rural might go to Bush, the City is still very much in the Kerry or ABB camp. Dean supporters can play a big role in making sure get GOTV here in Washington as well.

I think the heartland will be the key states this year for Kerry to win.

[alcuno]

7. Remember. Rove spent A LOT of $ in CA in 2000.

Not all of Rove's "swing" states are really swinging.

[Ugnmoose]

8. Bush ads now running inTN

I saw first ad last night. I think TN is definitely in play this year.

[Scoopie]

11. Hey Ungmoose!

In what part of Tennessee do you live?
I don't watch much regular television, so I haven't seen any Shrub ads - thank God!
I'm in Knoxville.

[Leilani]

18. Were they on cable or network?

I'm in Hawaii & seeing Bush ads on cable.

I believe you can pick your markets more easily on network.

[flaminbats]

9. Praise the lord for dirty tricks!

without dirt we would only have tricks, and without tricks we could only have dirt..:spank:

[Scoopie]

10. I agree.

Tennessee's definately in play.
I live here and I'm making it my personal mission to make sure the media stops referring to us as a "solid red" state. I honestly don't know how they come up with that assumption, considering we've always simply voted for the winner:
1976 - Carter (D)
1980 - Reagan (R)
1984 - Regan (R)
1988 - Bus 41(R)
1990 - Clinton (D)
1996 - Clinton (D)
2000 - Shrub (by less than 3 percent of the vote, I might add)
And, like you pointed out, we voted for a Democratic governor in 2002. By the way, Phil Bredesen is from upstate New York, so we're also not shy about voting to someone from the north - although Bredesen has lived in Tennessee for most of his adult life and started his company here.
I get really miffed when I see the Bushies and their friends in the media refer to us as a Republican state - as you can see from the evidence provided, we're a definite swing state.
For example, my mother was at the mall yesterday and saw a pick-up truck with a POW/MIA sticker in the back window. There was a hand-written sign propped up, so my mother stopped to read it. It said Kerry/Clark WILL win in 2004! :D And this is in East Tennessee - the most conservative part of the state!

[JPJones]

12. TN people - what city has Bush ads?

If it is Memphis, it could be targeting AR.

[mobuto]

13. LOL - Maine

Maine may have been in play in 2000, but it isn't now. Most recent poll had Kerry up 51-38%. Rove would be wiser spending his money in a more winnable state, like Massachusetts or maybe Vermont.

;-)

[Hippo_Tron]

31. Massachusetts or Vermont, Please tell me that's a joke n/t

[BradCKY]

14. So Far

They have only run Pro-Bush (not attack ads as far as I know) up here in Chicago. But I don't see Illinois as a swing state so I don't even know if it matters.

[Lexingtonian]

15. Maine, Delaware and Washington

They're not, strictly speaking, in play.

Maine is probably mostly because of the media market overlap with southeastern New Hampshire (where the Republican strength is) and maybe to shake at rural Maine a little bit. It's also a way of getting around making TV ad buys in Boston- which would cause a backlash with spillover into southern NH and is pretty expensive to boot.

Delaware is not really going to be affected by media buys in Wilmington- the state's votes are strongly concentrated in Newark/Wilmington and are pretty committedly Democratic. The TV reach out of Wilmington is into rural southeastern Pennsylvania, the Eastern Shore of Maryland and most of the rest of the Delmarva peninsula, and southern New Jersey though- all Border State Republican country that has to be kept from demoralization and rebellion. And a cheaper and less problematic media market than Baltimore.

Washington State is probably being hit because Seattle Democrats are an easily splintered bunch- anti-Kerry stuff could drive a good number of people there into Undecided and to the Greens, and put Republicans back in the driver's seat. One thing Gore and his team said in 2001 was that they had had to put all kinds of energy and money and time into Oregon and Washington State to quell the Green problem that they didn't have enough left for Ohio, Missouri, and Florida.

In short, it's mostly spoiler attacks. The way Kerry has campaigned around the South aggressively and shaken up their support their(driving it down simply by providing a bearable alternative) has a fair amount to do with it.

[Lexingtonian]

16. btw

I'm a little surprised that Colorado and Virginia aren't considered part of the game.

[Leilani]

20. Not at this point in time

They should be safe GOP.

However as time goes on, & if Kerry picks up support, they might be vulnerable.

But most people mark them as safe for Repugs.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

17. the Dems just cant seem to take Ohio

Ohio is becoming, it seems, more GOP, at least my part of the state. I know my local congressional district flipped to the GOP after being held by a Democrat for many years.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

19. Im concerned about Pennsylvania.

As the state has two major citys that should be Democratic, that would be a place i would expect the Dems to do well in.

[pollock]

22. Michigan looks like a Democratic state.

Governor and both senators are Democrats.
News each day about how hard hid the economy is. Companies leaving to go down to Mexico.
Maybe Kerry wants a strong turnout, but don't see it going to Bush.

[Hippo_Tron]

30. Louisiana has two dem senators and a dem governor...

Along with all of the state offices except secretary of state, and both chambers of the legislature held by democrats. Chances are this state is going to Bush.

[molly]

23. No need to buy ads in Delaware

[Auntie Bush]

26. Why? It can't be that solid, can it?

[molly]

27. Yes - it can

[molly]

28. I told everyone 2 weeks ago?

that my sister-in-law from Ohio called on their primary day to tell me that she changed her voter registration from pug to DEM. Their family have been "log cabin pugs" forever. She is in her late 40's - early 50's and was so excited to tell me. They don't have a lot of money, so it meant something for her to call me specifically to tell me that - she sounded proud and resolved. She said there are a ton of very upset Ohio voters - especially in manufacturing jobs. Her husband is one who has worked for his company for years and is now doing lots of overtime WITHOUT pay.

Someone under-estimated the "little" guy - the most powerful guy!

[Hippo_Tron]

29. About Louisiana, Breaux and Landrieu will probably endorse Kerry...

But Blanco might not. Honestly I wanted a guy named Randy Ewing to be governor but he lost in the inital election and only Jindal and Blanco made it to the runoff. Blanco was by far the lesser of the two evils but she is still pretty conservative.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

32. Politically, the only good thing about living in TX right now is

not having to watch this crap...

[rasputin1952]

33. ROFLMAO...

that is one of the slickest things I've seen all day!

thanks for the belly laugh!!!!!

:bounce: