Analysis: Importance of Florida in presidential election debatable

[Freddie Stubbs]

By Brian E. Crowley, Palm Beach Post Political Editor
Monday, March 15, 2004

This may be blasphemy to Florida Democrats, but the Sunshine State could be less important than they think in this presidential election.

In fact, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry could abandon his campaign in the state later this year -- just as Bill Clinton did in 1992 -- to spread his limited resources to potentially more fertile political turf in the Midwest and Southwest. After all, the closest election in 2000 was not in Florida, where President Bush defeated Al Gore by 537 votes, but in New Mexico, where Gore won by 366 votes.

Even Kerry once suggested that Democrats could win the election without winning a single state in the South.

"Everybody makes the same mistake of 'Look South,' " Kerry told a New Hampshire audience in January. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own."

more: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/auto/epaper/editions/monday/news_0455c239b14f001f00fd.html

[onehandle]

1. Ohio is going to be the game this time. nt

[Nicholas_J]

2. It is more important

Fo Kerry to win back those states where Bush won by a narrow margin in 2000 that surround the great lakes. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and others where Bush won by a bare handful of votes will be a better strategy than to try to beat Bush in the Shouth. All Kerry will need to do is hold onto every state that Gore won in 2000 and add Ohio, (which he has a better chance of doing than winning southern states.) and he can beat Bush. Bush did far better in the South in 2000 than Gore, yet Gore won the popular vote. It does not matter whether a candidate wins a state by 1 vote or 100,000 votes, the winner gets all of the electoral votes, so it is simply bertter for Kerry to focus on those states that have bigger reasons to vote against Bush for. And those are the industrialized states of the Midwest who have lost the greatest number of jobs due to outsourcing.

[NWHarkness]

3. A minor correction

Gore carried Pennsylvania.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. Bush did not win Pennsylvania

Gore did.

[dolstein]

5. Bush can't win without Florida

In my book, that makes Florida pretty damn important. I don't know why DU'ers would want Kerry to hand Bush Florida on a silver platter, particularly when polls show the state to be very competitive.

Now of course I'm not arguing that Kerry should write off Ohio. He should actively contest that state too. Indeed, he should actively contest as many of the 18 or so battleground states as his resources permit.

[Bombtrack]

9. Exactly, People are so innane with their reasonings that, no Ohio,

No, Arizona. The fact is that there are around 15-17 swingstates in this election, Florida is one of them, Florida is the only southern one if you don't include Arkansas(which I don't until polling shows otherwise) and Florida is by a signifigant margin the BIGGEST.

Of course we can win without Florida. But there is no state du-jour that somehow is proven to be more important than it.

[cally]

6. I agree!

I posted a not well received thread about this on Saturday. I think it's a waste to try for Florida. The fix is in there and I don't see how we can win without much money and resources. I think we should focus elsewhere.

[dryan]

7. Message to Kerry - don't leave Florida!

There are a lot of Democrats in Floida that are just salivating for a chance to vote against George Bush in November. They (I) have been waiting since November 2000 for this. Please Sen. Kerry - you can win in Florida! Campaign here!

[denverbill]

12. They picked an odd way of showing it.

Electing Katherine Harris to Congress and reelecting Shrubby's brother as governor. Not much of a repudiation if you ask me.

[dolstein]

8. Newsflash: We can't win ANY swing state w/o "money and resources"

Why one earth would you want to simply write off the largest swing state (in terms of electoral votes)? Personally, I think Kerry probably has a better shot in Ohio, but not by much. Ohio is, culturally speaking, as conservative as Florida is. In any event, it is WAY too soon to start writing off states that are competitive.

[Bombtrack]

11. Ohio is more conservative than Florida

It also hasn't had the population growth/shift that Florida has had. It doesn't have the determined minority community that Florida has(because of 2000). It hasn't had Randi Rhodes broadcasting for 4 years. It doesn't have hundreds of thousands of Howard stern fans newly deprived of it 2 of the top 3 biggest metros in the state, who place the blame soley on Bush.

[ButterflyBlood]

18. that depends on how you define conservative

talking on social issues, then yes. however economically, Ohio is very far to the left of Florida. and with the current economic conditions and job losses, economic issues might be taking precedence.

I personally think we should forget Florida since the system is far too corrupt.

[Nicholas_J]

20. Since 2000

The differntial between democrats and republicans in Florida has shrunk in a big way. In 2000, there were 150,000 more democrats than republicans registered in Florida, by 2002 that shrank to 68,000 and is now less than 35,000. For Kerry to be beating Bush in Florida polls indicates that a lot of Republicans in Florida are crossing over to vote for Kerry in polls rather than for Bush.

In Florida, North of Orlando, many people who held office as democrats have switched parties in order to be able to stay in office, as happened in the Jacksonville Mayors race several years ago. The Democratic mayor switched parties when it became obvious that running as a Democrat would cost him the election.

[Bombtrack]

10. You're "the fix is in" is baseless hypocritical paranoia

How about some friggin specificity. Florida is a swingstate, it's the closest red swingstate by far in 2000, if you even consider it red, and it's the biggest swingstate and Bush cannot probably win without it. If your paranoid babble is about BBV, then you forfiet the election, because Florida is not even close to the most electronic-voting filled state of the swingstates. The issues that happened in 2000 were entirely different, and if you understand exactly what did happen, you would know there is zero chance of the same happening again

[cally]

14. Have they fixed the voter rolls yet?

I don't think so. As far as evidence, Dems got more votes in 2000 in Florida. We didn't get the electoral votes. Then look at the voters who were not allowed to vote in Florida. Add butterfly ballots. I've seen nothing to reassure me that the disenfranchisement of voters won't happen again. Prove to me that Florida has fixed the problems.

[Bombtrack]

15. The voter rolls were a one time purge in reaction to a mayoral election

scandal in which dead people and others who weren't supposed to voted. The butterfly ballots are no more. There goes your argument right there. Study the issue before spreading hypocracy. The basic issue in Florida was interference in a RECOUNT. I've listed plenty of issues why Kerry is more likely to win handily in Florida than almost all other red states(other than probably New Hampshire) meaning there would be no recount.

[cally]

17. You need to do some more research

the voter purge was much more than that and has not been rectified. It was not just in one city.

My whole point is where to direct limited resources. If you are burned once, then why try again. Yes, I think Dems won last time and could win again. I repeat, we won last time but did not get the electoral votes. How do we make sure if we win that we get the electoral votes and how much money and effort will it take? How do we make sure that police don't set up roadblocks preventing folks from voting? I just think our resources are better directed elsewhere where the President's brother is not Governor.

[Bombtrack]

21. I never said it was just in one city. But it was a one-time list

so your notion that it is bound to happen anew is virtually impossible. It was a purge that happened as a reaction to a scandal in Miami around 1998 I beleive. The state hired a company that made a bad list, and many counties used it, and some threw it out, so although we don't know how many people were disavowed from voting who should have, there will be no new people added too it. And if you didn't notice, Bush has the loyalty from all the GOP governors, not just Jeb

[leyton]

13. The Cuban demographic - anyone read the New Yorker recently?

They published an interesting article (as they so often do) about the importance of the Cuban-American community in Florida and its strong connection to Jeb Bush. It turns out (this may not be news to you) that if Gore had carried but a third or so of that demographic, he would have won Florida. It also mentioned, I believe, that Cuban-americans, while happy with Jeb, were growing increasingly discontent with George W. Bush's policies. In particular, the war in Iraq seems to have angered them, because Bush is sending troops all the way over there when he could remove the dictator next door.

T'was interesting, I thought.

[MoonRiver]

16. Jeb will steal FL for * again. The BBV fix is in and unless Kerry

takes a lawsuit against Diebold all the way to the SC, AND it hears the case, AND, miraculously rules against Jeb, there's not a snowball's chance in hell of Kerry be allowed to win there, whether he actually does or not. I can't imagine why he'd waste his time and money in that state under these conditions. Of course he can win the GE without FL, and he had better be able to, cause no way is he getting FL's electoral votes in 2004. Sorry to be so pessimistic, but this is hard cold reality.

[ButterflyBlood]

19. Florida is too corrupt

as long as Jeb's around, we better not rely on it.