Possible cause for concern for Clinton? El Paso (heavily Hispanic) poll: C 33%, O: 32, Und: 35

[Drunken Irishman]

What could be a telling sign of things to come, Hillary Clinton only leads Obama by a point in El Paso, Texas -- a city dominated by Hispanics.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_8285220

Also of note, the poll was taken prior to Obama's success in Maryland, DC and Virginia last Tuesday.

[arewenotdemo]

1. She sees the writing on the wall...specifically in regard to Texas.

Hence her desperate play for seating Florida and Michigan delegates.

[Iktomiwicasa]

52. Well, Texas won't count either

if Hillary can arm twist the supers.

[ORDem]

71. Watch for canceled events in TX and her spending a lot of time

in OH. Not that there's anything wrong with that. :smoke:

[Qutzupalotl]

2. That is a huge undecided number.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. This is true, but that benefits Obama.

Since for weeks we've been told Hispanics will break heavily for Clinton. Well El Paso, a city which is 77% Hispanic, shows essentially a tie between the two. That does not bode well for her if this number is mirrored throughout Texas.

[tandem5]

3. No, that's interesting 'cause here in Sacramento news 10 did a poll and found...

that while nobody knows exactly what a "rivercat" is, a vast majority were okay with name - go figure!

[usregimechange]

4. If this is true it will be a long night for Hillary on March 4

[catagory5]

5. Obama can hope for this

you cant trust a 30-30 poll. Now way that there are 30 some odd % undies..........

[MindMatter]

28. Maybe somebody has done this analysis

but it seems that in the last 10 races, Obama has beaten the polls by a wide margin. That suggests that either the polls have an inherent bias that favors Clinton or else Obama has momentum that is not reflected in the lag of the polls.

I'm not suggesting that any of the pollsters are overtly biased towards Clinton. What I am suggesting is that the polls ask the "establishment questions" and this election may not be operating under the establishment rules. The polls may be asking the wrong questions for 2008.

[mckeown1128]

67. One theorized problem with the polling that I have heard of.

Is that they call landlines and not cellphones. Obama supporters tend to be younger and upwardly mobile. It can be assumed that many of them (like my wife and me) use cell phones only.

Thus an undersampling in the polling. I also read a very interesting blog on Dailykos that showed Obama regularly outperforming his polling averages by around 3 points in most states. (Of course with the exceptions of NH and CA)

[mysteryman2]

6. I am Latin

Latin family's don't participate in polls. The same thing was said in California. The race was tight. Hilary smashed him.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. It varied by poll, but many did show a large number of Hispanic votes.

Of course, El Paso is 77% Hispanic, so unless they polled the entire white community, many Hispanics HAD to have participated in the poll.

[Levgreee]

11. 1. 54-42, with a large amount of absentee, is not *smashing* 2. he was polled at being even, at best

and often down by about 4-6.

[Moh96]

23. california result is 52-43 not 54-42

and yes if he calls that smashing then what do you call what Obama has been doing 65 and 75

[TexasObserver]

12. Ay dios mios. Since when do Latinos and Latinas in Texas call themselves Latin?

Latinas and Latinos under 30 years old in Texas are largely voting for Obama. Their parents may vote Hillary, but not them, and there are more younger citizen Latinos in Texas than older citizen Latinos. And Texas is not California, and neither are its Hispanics aligning like California. Given the delegate process here and the allocations of national delegates by Senatorial Districts, neither Hillary nor Obama can gain or lose many delegates in the 6-8 Senatorial Districts which the Latino vote can carry.

Si se puede.

[mysteryman2]

16. We will C

[TexasObserver]

17. Gracias, pendajo.

I'll look forward to your further insights.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. LMAO...

:rofl: No mystery about the mysterman, huh? Pendajo seems quite fitting :rofl:

[TexasObserver]

22. hehehe ... don't miss the poem in post #21 below ... it's a DUzy!!

or should be

[WolverineDG]

31. Yup

All those Clinton folks raving about Clinton's appearance in McAllen securing the Hispanic vote didn't know that tons of them were stepping out of line to sign up as volunteers for Obama. :rofl:

dg

[mysteryman2]

36. 1.2 Million people voted for HRC in Florida /Michigan

Obama isn't that much ahead in votes if all if you count Florida and Michigan. What the will of the people don't count there.

[TexasObserver]

38. Yes, we know. Hillary cheated in Florida & Michigan. Big friggin deal.

They'll either have a caucus to determine their delegates as per new instructions from the DNC, or they won't have a single delegate voting in the nomination process. Hillary thinks she can lie, cheat and steal her way to the nomination, but she's badly mistaken.

[mysteryman2]

44. Obama wants to throw out votes

While his people jump and down let the peoples will count.

http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/democratic1.download.akamai.com/8082/pdfs/2008delegateselectionrules.pdf

They don't have to count the votes but the rules say the DNC can consider to count the delegates. page 23 part c. they can bring state legislative changes. There is affirmative action rules also to count minority votes. Page 19 part E says they assume jurisdiction and challenges to delegates. Meaning they can decide to include those delegates.

[ddeclue]

48. I'm from Florida and I was an Edwards supporter - the FL votes should not count

Where was Hillary's "courage" to seat our delegates prior to the 29th of January?

This is the most obvious gamesmanship on her part and totally transparent.

The only reason she won is because there was NO campaigning all last year in Florida and Michigan due to the 4 state pledge and the DNC saying our delegates would not count. She won on name recognition and on a totally screwed up election where voters were not being motivated by the Presidential Preference Primary but rather by a property tax issue in Florida. The vote should NOT count unless it is redone and both candidates are given ample time to campaign here (and in Michigan) and debate each other in MI and FL.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[mysteryman2]

53. This is democracy

This is democracy? No wonder they don't trust us in Iraq. They had the same problem in Iraq not counting votes.

[TexasObserver]

55. silly boy

[mysteryman2]

57. Silly girl

The only way you can win is if they throw out those votes it's apparent.

[TexasObserver]

59. OK, mystery fraud. Time to dump you in the latrine, and shovel some dirt on you.

Get back to me when you can explain why you're "Latin" and can't speak Spanish.

[mysteryman2]

61. Do you need a picture

Why would you assume I can't speak spanish In Missouri you need to speak a language to get a four year degree. I tested out of the requirement on computer which is a option.

[TexasObserver]

51. There's no throwing out the votes. They don't count. It wasn't an election.

It was a beauty contest that only Hillary campaigned for, which, by the way, is the only way she could get more votes than Obama in either state.

[mysteryman2]

54. The truth hurts

She got the votes Obama didn't it looks like his suporters will say anything to sideline those two states and delegates. Because he wasn't that big of a winner as they imagine.

[TexasObserver]

60. No, what hurts is reading your incredibly inane and juvenile droppings.

[mysteryman2]

63. Do you always have to get the last word even when your wrong

[mysteryman2]

64. Your a fan you need a dear abby / follow me around for insight

[LordJFT]

62. but they won't, Dean will keep this election fair

[mysteryman2]

69. I'm sure he will scream about it he always does

[LordJFT]

70. now you're insulting a good dem? well not surprising from someone supporting a DLC candidate

[mysteryman2]

75. What are you talking about

I wanted Dean to win. I thought he was the only one who could beat Bush. After he lost I then defected to Kerry. I even worked on the Kerry edwards campaign. It was on Wornall road in KC where I live.

If your talking about the Dean Scream I didn't mean it like that. Until hillary drops off I will be behind her. I may vote for Obama but if his supporters get radical or pushy with me I won't.

I switched candidates before when I went from dean to kerry.

[WolverineDG]

45. And they knew their votes wouldn't count when they did it

I've been around this block a few times.

dg

[mysteryman2]

58. Your spinning

You've been around the block going in circles.

Everyone knows obama can't win unless florida and michigan are thrown out. HRC followers know it's a testimony she can win in 2008.

[WolverineDG]

77. No, I'm not

The DNC was quite clear about what would happen if MI & FL moved up their primary dates. Unlike Senator Clinton, the DNC didn't just decide on a whim to not seat the delegations because they didn't like the results.

dg

[Hill_YesWeWill]

66. do you need a binky?

I'm sorry, I'm sorry! That's mean I know, but I just think this has been discussed enough, what mre is there to say? You can't the rules in the middle of a game, that's how fair contest and games are played, you Can't Change The Rules!

[mysteryman2]

68. say anything to win/ i don't want your binky

[Hill_YesWeWill]

74. I'm sorry, that was uncalled for,

let's be friends!

[mysteryman2]

76. ok

I need a breather be back in week.

[TexasObserver]

37. all many know about Texas Hispanics this election is what the Hill noise machine tells them.

You hear the Hillary lap dogs at CNN say it, you see her toadies at the New York Times repeat it.

Oh, they have a narrative about how 35 years ago Hillary came to Texas and helped register voters in South Texas, and blah blah blah. It's a great storyline that means absolutely nothing. The few old supporters she has in Texas all have kids that are between 25 and 40, and they're ALL backing Obama!!

You want to know who Hillary looks and acts like to most Latinos in Texas under 45? The white lady who was their school principal in Middle School, the one they hated, that's who. She's dressy, she smiles, but she's a witch who looks at them with that "why don't you drop out, you're screwing up my school" look.

One of the biggest problems in education in Texas is the way the middle schools, which are almost all run by Hillarys (white women, age 60 or so) constantly try to push young Hispanics out of school in Middle School, so they don't "bring down" the state Test Scores for those terrible mandated tests that have taken over the educational system here. It's a scandal, the way they try to run those kids out of school.

Anyone who thinks Latinos and Latinas under 30, who make up the MAJORITY of citizen Hispanics in Texas, are voting for Hillary simply have no idea what they're talking about.

[mysteryman2]

73. I'm between 24 and 40 and not backing Obama

They must not be backing Obama. I am a young Mexican and Backing Clinton. I saw something like that on the news before California then it turned out to not be true.

[woolldog]

19. TexasObserver

What do you think the differences are between Texas Hispanics and California Hispanics?

[Adelante]

29. Some of it is longevity as Americans

In California, the demographic is largely newer immigrants. Texas was more settled over several generations (some before there even was a Texas).

[WolverineDG]

33. Or even a US for that matter

the parish of San Agustin was created in the 1730's, a few decades before the Declaration of Independence.

dg

[Renew Deal]

27. Polls (except 1) got it right in CA.

So I think you're wrong on this one.

[ORDem]

72. Take the CA with a grain of salt. 1/3 of the vote was before Obama's SC win n/t

[TexasObserver]

7. Notice that Real Politics isn't showing the ARG poll which shows Obama ahead by 6 points.

ARG also shows a dead heat on Latino votes.

Hillary has older Latinos and Obama has younger Latinos, generally speaking.

Whites will be a push, and blacks will go to Obama 85-15.

Obama for the win.

[ErnestoG]

8. That sounds about right to me.

In general, Obama has the younger crowd anyway.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. What was interesting about the ARG poll was that 30% of all men

would never vote for Clinton !


http://americanresearchgroup.com /

February 15, 2008 - Texas Primary Preferences

Democrats TX

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.

22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. No wonder she went there. This is excellent news ! Wow huge undecideds, huh.

[grantcart]

14. ruh roh

[TexasObserver]

39. It's going to be the Scooby Doo ending. Obama for the win.

[workinclasszero]

20. Its lookin good

for Obama. :)

[TexasObserver]

21. The Ballad of Hillary Clinton

The Ballad of Hillary Clinton

Way out in the west
Where the folks are the best,
But the towns are really remote.
Rides our gun-totin’ pal
That Hillary gal,
And she’s courtin’ the Hispanic vote.

Yup, she’s packin’ a gun
And it ain’t just for fun.
They say she’s shot seven or eight.
She’s angry and mean,
The worst that we’ve seen
When she’s roundin’ up each delegate.

“Howdy, you all!”
She says with a drawl.
“I’m looking for Spaniards, you see.
Now ya do what I says,
I’m runnin’ for prez,
So just hand them over to me!”

From the back comes a shout
“I’m afraid that they’re out
At a rally just down the street.
‘Cause a new guy’s come in
And they’re voting for him,
He’s the one they all want to meet!”

She gallops away,
In tears, so they say.
Amid shouts of “Obama’s our man!”
With voices so loud,
A people so proud…
“Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can!!

Author Unknown

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. dude...you're killing me

:rofl: cheers to the author! :toast:

[TexasObserver]

40. Rich Fassler may be the author, but it's not clear

he posted it on a blog at the Houston Chronicle

[WolverineDG]

34. Awesome

Cutting & pasting for my local Obama folks.

:thumbsup:

dg

[TexasObserver]

41. got it from a blog at the Houston Chronicle, from a reader/poster

[Hill_YesWeWill]

65. LOL! That's great! nt

[MindMatter]

25. Why would any hispanic support her in the first place?

That's the bit I've never understood. The only reason I can think of is name recognition. On a policy basis, I don't see any particular reason to support Clinton. Is this a NAFTA thing? They appreciate the Clintons for creating that monster?

I would have thought that natural sympathies would go to Obama because he is from a minority group.

[TexasObserver]

42. Name ID and positive feelings about Bill's years in the WH

that works for older folks, not younger

[Renew Deal]

26. Isn't that a college town?

Obama should do well there if it is.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. UTEP is located there, but it's more than just a college town.

77% Hispanic and has a very blue collar population.

[TexasObserver]

43. In Texas, every town over 20,000 citizens is a college town

[AtomicKitten]

32. The undecided vote number is breathtaking.

Clearly Democrats are mulling this over carefully, as it should be.

Gobama!

[TexasObserver]

46. You're right AK. Anyone who isn't for Hillary already, probably won't be.

[AtomicKitten]

47. Zogby talked about her ceiling of support.

She has nowhere to go.

The sky is the limit for Obama. ;)

[TexasObserver]

50. Hillary peaked about last October, on name ID. Now, substance matters.

The more voters in a state hear Hillary and Barack, the more she loses voters and the more he gains them.

[NJSecularist]

35. This is not good news for Hillary if true

This should be one of her strong holds.

She needs a terrific showing from El Paso if she wants to win Texas.

[CatWoman]

49. good ole El Paso

I lived there for six months before moving here.

and yes, it is very heavily populated by Hispanics.

Home of Fort Bliss, too.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

56. Oops, so much for that brown black divide nt