Major flaws in CBS poll (polled 376-Rep, 471 Ind, only 359 Dems

[PA-DEM]

Here's the breakdown (pdf required). Note (at bottom) that there are more Republicans than Democrats among the respondents, which is unusual. The MOE is 3.0%. Poll was taken between March 10 and 14.. Note also that Kerry has a slim lead among independents. So the atypical low Democratic representation in the poll is likely responsible for Bush's three point margin.



http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/election_0315.pdf

Total Republicans polled-376
Total Democrats polled-359
Total Independents polled-471

[Zynx]

1. That would explain it.

Any reasonable poll should have more Dems than Republicans.

[rockymountaindem]

2. Why is that?

On edit: that still doesn't account for Nader's high showing. I don't know why people seem to think he won't have an impact when his numbers are so high. We really need to get Moore in the race...

[Gman]

7. They probably have a large number of Greens in the

indy sample.

[MoonRiver]

3. Slimeball CBS. I knew their polls were rigged.

We're gonna have to be vigilant against these crooked rightwing media polls for the next 8 months, and, really forever. But, if * steals another one, we're into a fascist dictatorship, so it won't matter, in theory, at least.

[Endangered Specie]

4. Umm, I think it has to do with the # of registered dems vs registered repo

Im sure there is slightly more repos than dems unfortunatly

[PA-DEM]

5. Wrong

Dems have a registration lead of 41-39 nationally.

[boobooday]

6. Why so many independents?

Is that representative?

http://www.wgoeshome.com

[Raya]

8. Result are all statistically weighted. SORRY, NO BASIS FOR YOUR COMMENT

[F.Gordon]

9. Well, that explains this........

Just 14 percent say the Administration's policies have increased the number of jobs in the U.S.; 47 percent blame the Administration's policies for decreasing the number of jobs. About a quarter say those policies had no effect on the job market.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/15/opinion/polls/main606469.shtml

14% say that Bush* has INCREASED the number of jobs in the U.S.??? WTF!!! I'm beginning to think you should have to take a test if you want to vote. Something simple like...name the last four Presidents.

[alcuno]

10. I'd like to see how the numbers differ from previous polls.

I know that the name of the poll changed from CBS News to CBS News/NYT. I'll look and see if the old internals are still around.

[alcuno]

11. It's a much smaller polling sample.

Their 2/24-27 poll had 1294 registered voters and the one out today had 984 registered voters. Smaller samples can have an impact. I'm surprised at a 310 voter difference.

[IndianaGreen]

12. I am curious as to the breakdown of independent voters

It will be the independents that will elect the next President.

This poll may indicate that Bush going negative so early may have stopped his slide in the polls.

I am still concerned that the polling data is skewed as the poster of this thread has stated.

My experience has been that one is better served by sticking with one pollster throughout the election cycle.

[PurityOfEssence]

13. Keep publishing rigged polls, and the stealing's that much easier

come November. La la la. We've told you what you believe, you'll come around in time.