Hillary will drop out of the race on March 6.

[milkyway]

The Clinton campaign has been slow to recognize the reality of their spectacular failure. But the math and the calendar is strongly against them and they are running out of states that might be favorable for Hillary.

Hillary is down over 130 pledged delegates, which should grow tomorrow to 140+. Her new "firewall" of Texas and Ohio is crumbling. She will be fortunate to net any delegates in Texas. It certainly looks like Ohio is good for her, but with 141 pledged delegates, even a wildly optimistic net of 30 delegates will leave her down 110+ delegates, with Rhode Island and Vermont at best a split for her.

The next contests are a March 8 Wyoming caucus for 12 pledged delegates, followed by a March 11 primary in Mississippi for 33 pledged delegates. These two will certainly add to Obama's lead.

It will then be six weeks until the next contest in Pennsylvania for 158 pledged delegates. This should be favorable to Hillary, but Obama's lead will be 120+ delegates. In fact, there's a better chance that on March 12 Obama's lead will be greater than it is today. For this not to be so, Hillary's gain in Ohio will have to offset Obama's likely gains in Wisconsin, Hawaii, Vermont, Wyoming, and Mississippi, with Texas and Rhode Island probably not resulting in large net gains for either candidate.

After Pennslyvania there are nine contests left, ending on June 7--Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico. Few of these seem favorable to Hillary.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

Hillary's reliance on superdelegates to give her the nomination is crumbling also. In two weeks the New York Times polling of supers has seen her lead go from +105 to +47. After tomorrow this trend will only continue.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/18/superdelegate-poll-unsettled-ground/

By March 5, when it becomes apparent to everyone that Obama's lead in pledged delegates is simply too large for Hillary to overcome, the supers will flood to Obama, effectively crowning him the nominee. If the margin is seen as possible to overcome, let's say under 100, some may hold off until after Pennsylvania.

But it is seven weeks from March 4 to April 22 with only two small states favorable to Obama between them. The party will not want to see the highly likely nominee have to spend nearly two months of time and money turning Pennsylvania into a large Iowa while McCain and the repugs prepare for battle. If Obama's lead on March 5 is anywhere near what it is currently, the superdelegates and party elders will make it clear to the Clintons that the campaign is over.

Their fifteen-state strategy will have failed. With little remaining funds and little support, Hillary will drop out on March 6.

[grantcart]

1. Wrong

Wednesday March 5th

[jakem]

24. .

[John Q. Citizen]

79. Friday, March 7th. Slow news day.

[TheWraith]

2. Here's hoping. I'm getting tired of this "we'll steal it at the convention" strategy.

A loss is a loss.

[PoliticalOne65]

70. past history

Mondale beat Gary Hart at the 1984 convention using super delegates. Hubert Humphrey won the nomination in 1968 without winning a single primary. A lot can happen between now and the convention. I will say one thing; Hillary will not drop out. She has come to far to quit now. It's on to the convention. My prediction: 'for what it is worth' She will end up giving an endorsement speech at the convention. Only after several rounds of voting makes it clear that it is over.

[TheWraith]

92. And those are all really good examples to cite, aren't they?

My opinion, she'd be a fool and an egomaniac to take it all the way to the convention.

[no name no slogan]

93. Mondale didn't need the SDs to win in 1984

He had nearly 2200 delegates to Hart's 1200 delegates. Of that total, approximately 700 were superdelegates. Mondale would have won without the support of superdelegates.

Also, the primary system didn't actually become the prominent way to select delegates until 1976, after reforms were first instigated in 1972. Humphrey got the nomination in 1968 under a different set of rules from today.

Hillary will probably stay in the race until the convention, although it may not be in full campaign mode.

[K Gardner]

3. I have to agree with this. We absolutely cannot afford nearly two months of Clinton's flailing and

wailing, throwing random character assasinations at Obama. No one can bear to watch the "agonal respirations of a dying campaign" for that long. (just plagiarized myself from another post.. TM TM Copyright !!! ) Remove the life support.

[Dems Will Win]

4. I figured out that the way things are going, by June Obama will need 200 out of 400 super-delegates

left and Clinton will need 500 out of 400.

That will be the math!

[dailykoff]

5. A graceful swan song

and a strong endorsement of Obama will do a lot to help erase the last few months.

[my3boyz]

6. The only way she will drop out is if the donors stop sending

her money. I mean her funds would have to totally dry up and she would have to consider dipping into her bank account again. I can't see her spending 15-20 million of her own money. Romney has a lot more money that she has so he could afford to do that.

[libertee]

7. Hillary won't give up to Mr. Cliche'!

[politicaholic]

10. Whoever is not ahead should drop out to avoid the super delegates...

because it sort of blemishes the popular vote. After what happened in 2000 I would prefer that the votes be counted in Florida and the nominee not come down to super delegates. If Hillary or Obama is going to be the candidate, I don't care, let it be the people who choose. If you're losing, drop out, don't try to back door the presidency through loop holes.

[Window]

8. I understand what you are saying, but I don't think Hillary will

drop out anytime soon if at all. Perhaps she will, I just don't see it.



Peace:thumbsup:

[NJSecularist]

9. Hillary dropping out?

Pfft..

Dropping out is for losers.

She's rather take down the party with her if she doesn't win the nomination.

[snappyturtle]

40. You know the way she's been acting she may in fact take down

the party. I wonder if she thinks it's only Democrats out there listening to all whining? That's not the word I want but close enough. If Sen. Obama doesn't defend himself he looks guilty of her jabs and when he defends himself, very calmly, she finds another way to jab at him. Between the switching of slogans and false attacks and President Clinton not keeping his cool....they look like buffoons, rather than the experienced campaign people that they should be. After all, they've been through gubernatorial, presidential, and senatorial campaigns. Why all the problems with this one?

[Horse with no Name]

68. The party is in the fucking mud

and YOU think it can drop further?
Your candidate is just as responsible for it being there as anyone else.

[donheld]

78. Dropping out to save the world takes class. Hillary more and more is showing

she has none.

[John Q. Citizen]

87. The party won't let her. The supers will put Obama over the top. Hill would be isolated

inside the party.

The party has annoucned no MI or FL delegates, and that Supers will by anbd large go to the pledged delegate winner.

It's all over unless Hill pulls out a string of miraculas big lopsided wins. ANd the odds gainst that are pretty big.

She may be staying in this long to recoup her 5 million.

[RememberWellstone]

11. The sky is falling!

You wish.

[WinkyDink]

12. No WAY will HRC abandon ship before PA.

[yourguide]

13. No way...

she will not drop out. she will try and broker this at the convention even if she is behind.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

14. okay Kreskin

[Mme. Defarge]

15. I can't stand

the suspense!

[Yael]

16. We are gearing up for Hurricane Hillary here in PA

It may be her last stand -- and we are getting ready for it!

Pity the Obama site is sold out of EVERYTHING.

I was able to pick up stickers and buttons on Cafepress.

We will be in great need of yard signs and rally signs though.

If you can, consider donating left over materials to the OH, TX and PA people over at http://www.obamacycle.com

Many there are also helping with shipping costs to these states.

Thanks!!

:hi:

[Barack_America]

21. I picked up 1,500 voter registration forms today.

Now to hit the streets with them! ;)

[Yael]

30. w00t!!

[Barack_America]

38. I've heard that we might not get signs...

...until after March 4.

But the PA Obama director is now here! He came in Sunday. Yea! It's officially starting!

[Yael]

42. Indeed! We kickoff with the campaign on Wed night

I am hoping that we are able to get leftover materials from the earlier states!

[Horse with no Name]

69. et tu yael

you promised.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

82. Obamacycle.com! that's awesome! nt

[UALRBSofL]

17. You left out florida and michigan

They will play a role in Hillary's nomination.

[elocs]

18. Unlike the Republicans, the lack of "winner take all" has made this interesting. n/t

[ORDem]

76. Somebody (TPM?) compared WTA with apportioned delegats

for both the Dems and Goopers. Turns out it really doesn't make that much difference. n/t

[Barack_America]

19. I'm in PA, and I'd really like the 'Iowa Treatment'.

But, in the end, whatever's best for the party.

[QC]

20. The corporate media will begin savaging Obama on March 7.

And given the hysterical response to today's events on the part of the "movement," it's hard even to imagine how the will respond when the real attacks start.

[JorgeTheGood]

22. What day does the Rezko trial start ? n/t

[QC]

23. Early March sometime, I believe. n/t

[TexasObserver]

25. Disagree. DELUSION is a powerful drug and it dies hard in the ambitious politician.

[arewenotdemo]

89. Yep. They wouldn't have broached the subject of Michigan otherwise.

[sniffa]

26. I'm starting to suspect Feb. 21 now

If internals show a loss or even a squeaker of a win in Ohio and Texas, she may just drop out then to hopefully preserve the Clinton Brand.

[Yael]

29. Do you really think this?

Something tells me that Bill is fighting this more than she is. He is doing a lot of damage -- but I really don't think he sees that.

[sniffa]

34. If they're smart they will

I'm hoping they stay in it forever. I don't think it will split the party, as I think they'll eventually drive the nomination away, and that will in effect, be the end of the Clinton Brand. I think they're smart enough to know when the writing is on the wall, and can try to spin a loss into some sorta win for the party, and for her with an eye toward 2012. If she goes to March 4, and loses, I can't help but think that it would be devastating. Dropping out prior, could save some of the bruises.

[Yael]

41. I know in my head that you are right

I am just not seeing it from them. It is almost like they would rather go down in flames than quietly step down. I hope you are right and I am wrong -- for their sake. For ALL of our sake.

[bvar22]

27. Looks like Obama is the safe bet for the nomination.

But there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Sad really.
Hillary already had the invitations for her coronation printed up.

[CK_John]

28. Obama will beg her to stay in until July to give him cover from the swiftboaters. n/t

[Flabbergasted]

32. exactly.

[UALRBSofL]

36. Thats what I think

Keep the republicans guessing.

[Flabbergasted]

31. They should campaign up through May.

[greguganus]

33. If Hillary drops out, Bill will probably kick her ass. n/t

[ORDem]

77. Probably the other way around. She probably has been kicking

his sorry ass for the last 12 years over Monica.

[grantcart]

35. I have a theory I would like your opinion on

Its rather strange that so many surrogates have admitted that they have to win Texas, Ohio and PA. No spin simple statement. My theory is that a number of senior superdelegates - Gore Feinstein etc agreed to keep quiet and give her time as long as her campaign publicly committed that they had to win these three states, and if she loses any of the three she will immediately stop her campaign.

Why else would they box themselves in?

[Yael]

43. Math

If she can't get the pledged by 3/4 -- shes done.

At least that is what Penn and Carville are saying (consider the source)

[milkyway]

46. The Gore/Pelosi group of leaders in the NYT story Saturday were letting the Clintons

know they had to win the nomination by winning the most pledged delegates. It seems like they are giving her until March 4 to make her case.

I don't know whether this was an explicit agreement with these party leaders that she had to win both Texas and Ohio, but it was a bit odd to hear Carville say she has to win them both or she's finished. It seems like the Clinton campaign realizes March 4 is the end of the line if they don't have a strong night.

What really kills the Clinton campaign is that seven week stretch between March 4 and Pennsylvania. If it was only a week or two there is no doubt the campaign would continue. But if things don't go her way on March 4, it seems likely that the party elders will let the Clintons know that the campaign is over; the supers will move heavily to Obama, Florida and Michigan will become irrelevant to the outcome, and Hillary's funding will slow to a trickle. It is unlikely in that situation she will then declare Pennsylvania to be her new firewall. If she loses there, what would then become her new firewall...Puerto Rico?

Speaking of P.R., the party will never allow the campaign to continue that long. The last thing they would want is for video of their eventual nominee having to go to San Juan and ask Puerto Ricans to give them the nomination. The repugs and the media would have a field day with it.

[John Q. Citizen]

81. Actually, I disagree about Puerto Rico. But the main thing is the math. Obama has a big

pledged delegate lead, and due to the apportionment of Delegates, there is no way for Clinton to overcome that lead.

[Laelth]

90. Nice observation.

I wonder, though, if they can spin a loss into a win and keep the senior super-delegates appeased? Personally, I love the near-constant "Obama wins again" headlines. These are made possible only by Hillary's remaining in the race. I want her to stay in until May, at least.

:toast:

-Laelth

[Zavulon]

37. I desperately want to to be right, but I doubt you are.

Hillary will hang on as long as it takes to come up with some sort of cheap shit to steal the nomination. Not only will she not drop out, she won't even lose - and she might not even need to pull shit with Florida and Michigan to do it.

[BeyondGeography]

39. No, she won't

The Clintons will be doing their Charlton Heston from-our-cold-dead-hands impersonation right through to August.

[loveangelc]

44. Clinton will drop out or be forced to drop out if she loses TX or OH imo.

The DNC we now know does NOT want this to go on into April, May, June. The meme has already been that she MUST win TX and OH by large margins to stay in the race. If this doesnt happen and she stays in she will be tagged as a desperate loser.

[JorgeTheGood]

45. Hillary is a fool to drop out ...

Rezko could come tumbling down on BO at any moment. It may be him that has to drop out.

Think about it.

[demo dutch]

47. Nice try

[sniffa]

48. Indeed

I predict earlier: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4650184#4651209

[JorgeTheGood]

51. We will see ... n/t

[demo dutch]

52. She's a tough cookie, & that's what it takes

[jefferson_dem]

49. Excellent analysis!

:kick: and Rec!

I was just thinking about the daunting uphill climb ahead for Hillary and started running some numbers, using that leaked Obama spreadsheet.

I agree with your conclusion that she should drop out then. Whether she will is another matter entirely.

[milkyway]

53. She won't want to drop out, but that 7-week stretch until PA will force her to do so.

Obama has cut the supers in less than half in the last two weeks, with more to come in the next two weeks if Obama wins Wisconsin. If she were to only net a couple of dozen delegates on March 4, leaving her down over 100 with Wyoming and Mississippi immediately coming up, that long dry stretch until PA will see the supers effectively end the contest by moving to Obama. Her fundraising will dry up, leaving her to self-finance those seven weeks. Hoping to overcome all of this with one good night in PA would border on the delusional--and like the republican leaders who told Nixon it was over, it will be the dem leaders who will convince Hillary that it's over, whether she likes it or not.

Of course, all of this is predicated on good showings for Obama in Wisconsin and Texas. Hillary's decision to head to Texas the night of the Chesapeake primaries will cost her Wisconsin. Texas should be close in the popular vote, and Obama's superior organizational abilities have given him a good chance to win more delegates in a large state that should have been all Hillary's. The incredible mismanagement of Hillary's campaign, which begins at the top, is a whole other topic. Indeed, there will be many books written about the subject.

[apocalypsehow]

50. I've come slowly - and sadly - to the conclusion that the Clinton's honestly believe that if they

can't be the Democrats in the White House, then no Democrat should be in the White House this time around. One gets a sense from their campaign and its surrogates that the country deserves four more years of the GOP if Democratic primary voters aren't "smart enough" to see how wonderful and godlike their candidate is, and such a tone is set at the top. I think they will stay in it all the way to the convention no matter what damage it does to the Democratic party. I hope I'm wrong.

[psychopomp]

54. Not with Sen. Clinton's new campaign theme, "ANYTHING 2 WIN!"

I think the Clintons have decided that, if they can't have it, nobody (D) will and so will drag the party down along with them.

[Capt. America]

55. You are all forgetting that Clinton will call in some chips with the DNC...

... to include MI and FL in her delegate count.

[milkyway]

56. They won't affect the outcome. Hillary netted 38 in FL, and in MI she beat Uncommitted by 18.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3889

Even giving her all of these as is, which won't happen, it won't be enough to overcome the pledged delegates and the supers' movement to Obama. Besides, the Credentials Committee will ultimately decide this summer whether to seat these delegates, which will most likely be controlled by the candidate that is leading.

These delegations will eventually be seated at the Convention when the nomination has already been decided. But the party elders will see that they do not play a role in deciding who wins the nomination. That would not only be unfair to those candidates who abided by the DNC wishes, but it would also lead to total chaos in 2012. The DNC will have lost all control over the primary caldendar, and states will be leapfrogging each other so much the first contest could be in the summer of 2011.

[Imagevision]

57. Hillary should have Bill deliver the concession call to Obama, afterall

Hillary wouldn't be in this position if it wasn't for Mr. Ego!- ironically he thinks he's right about everything.

[Thrill]

58. So who does Hillary fire tomorrow night?

Who will be the next fall person?

[scheming daemons]

59. At some point, the only one left to "fire" is herself.....

...and that will come on or about March 5th.

[Thrill]

95. So who got the axe?

[democrattotheend]

60. March 6 is my birthday

That would be a very welcome present! Not out of hatred for Hillary (I support Obama but don't hate her), but because I am really psyched about Obama and want to see this nomination fight wrapped up as soon as possible to maximize our chances in November.

[enough already]

61. No way in hell

She's going all the way to the convention and will do anything and everything possible to win. I think today's antics from her campaign are just the tip of the iceberg. Obama may win, but he'll be covered in (rhetorical) blood at the end.

[John Q. Citizen]

86. No, the super delegates have no reason to follow Hill over a cliff. Thye will go to

Obama based on the math.

Hill can fight on to the convention if she wants to completely alienate herself forever from party politics.

She won't though. With her smaller share of the elected delegates and Obama having thre vast majority of supers, he will be over the top anyway.

[Alexander]

62. I'm not sure she'll concede, but the race will be over on March 6.

If she wins Texas and Ohio narrowly I could see her trying to drag it out to Pennsylvania and the convention.

[loveangelc]

63. she'll have to. i think she will absolutely have to and ifs he doesnt she'll just look stupid.

[workinclasszero]

64. Hillary will destroy the party before she drops out

Mark my words. Hillary and Bill Clinton think the dem party belongs to them personally.

They won't give up regardless of the delegate count. Hell they already are using republican talking points / swift-boating against Obama. How much is the RNC contributing to her campaign anyway?:shrug:

Expect them to sling mud and character assassination all the way to the convention and then force a floor fight over seating the FL and MI delegates.

Hill and Bill will run a scorched earth operation and burn their bridges behind them. They don't give a damn if the democratic party is left a smoking ruin.

Its all about the Clinton's people!:mad:

[Horse with no Name]

65. OH how I hope for this hubris to kill your candidates chances

The fucking arrogance of the Obamites reminds so much of the Bushies. I just cannot fucking stand it.

[TriMetFan]

66. One question?

Do Obama supporters want him to drop out if Hillary wins both TX and OH on March 4th? Just asking.:shrug:

[loveangelc]

67. Obama is in a good position. He doesn't HAVE to win both. She does.

[TriMetFan]

71. Thats what I thought.

Obama good. Hillary bad. :sarcasm:

[Alexander]

73. Hillary's manager Mark Penn said she needs to win big in OH and TX.

Her own campaign admitted it's over if she doesn't win those.

Did you seriously not know this, or are you being deliberately obtuse?

[loveangelc]

85. it's just a simple fact.

[greguganus]

91. It's simple math.

:hi:

[Johnny__Motown]

72. He has a lead of 136 pledged delegates, he can afford losses she can't, do the math

[TriMetFan]

80. I can do the math just fine.

What I'm asking is should Obama drop out if Hillary wins TX and OH? Wouldn't that be good for the party? It would stop all the fighting right? It would show that she can win all the Big States. :shrug: Because to tell y'all the truth Obama and Hillary are both killing The Democratic Party with their bullshit.

[Johnny__Motown]

83. No, he will still be ahead even if she wins both, he can afford the loss when she can't

[TriMetFan]

88. That is not what I'm asking if he would still be ahead.

Let me put it this way. If Obama was to lose TX and OH it would show that he can't win a "Big State" not counting his own. So should he drop out for the good of the party? Don't get me wrong. If Hillary was to lose both TX and OH, I think she should drop out too, for the good of the party. The Key word here is both.

[kristopher]

74. Then there are Gore, Biden, Dodd, and perhaps Edwards & Pelosi

J. Alter on Keith Olbermann speculating that they may be planning to prevent discord in some manner. Maybe they'll act after March 4th because of the scenario you posit.

If that group, led publicly by Gore, were to en mass endorse the leader at that time, it would basically be over.

Added on edit: I thought that was worth repeating :-)

[WCGreen]

75. You know what...

Stop with the spectacular failure...

It only belittles your guy...

That makes it look as if the only way Obama was able to get as far as he has gotten because of failure on the part of the clinton Campaign...

You and I know that is not the case...

Hillary was running a campaign to plan...

Only that plan did not for see the media embracing of Obama nor did the Clinton campaign spend enough time on grass roots in 2006-07...

While Obama was out courting activists at the local level, Clinton was recruiting support from the party regulars...

A strategy which, BTW, works almost everytime...

If Obama wasn't in the race, it wold have been HRC in a coast...

You know it and I know it...

So don't belittle Obama and don't disparage HRC...

Please, it makes you look churlish...

[Johnny__Motown]

84. Clintons planned on this ending on Feb. 5th, Obama planned on a longer race

Hillary, ready on day one. No clue about day two or beyond

[joshcryer]

94. I've been saying this for a month now, yet people *continue* to trash Hillary's *losing* campaign.

It's unbelievable how arrogant people here are. Hillary has lost. She's done. Yet the shit keeps getting shoveled. Every fucking day! Ugh.

[HeraldSquare212]

96. If she goes earlier, she'll be a hero.

My bet is she goes earlier.