Ohio: Kerry 45% Bush 41%

[Torgo Johnson]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Ohio%20March%2018.htm">Link


Nader isn't included in this poll, but other does have 4%. I think one of the reasons Bush scored so high in the NYT national poll was that the
attack in Madrid brought terrorism to the focus, which Chimpy somehow still scores high on. In a state like Ohio, where the economy is really poor, it did have as much as a impact. Based on this I expect Kerry to move up in the national polls again. Regardless, as much as he would like to keep focus on the economy where he excels with votes. He needs to hit harder on national security especially in Iraq the recent bombing may actually hurt *.

[PA-DEM]

1. This is good, but

It is a Rasmussen poll. There is a huge chance he is wrong. Here is his work from 2000.

http://www.portraitofamerica.com Popular vote estimate: Bush 48.9%, Gore 39.8%, Nader 4.3%, Buchanan 1.0%, Browne 0.8%, Phillips 0.1%, Hagelin 0.1%, Not Sure 5.1%. Electoral College: Bush 224, Gore 168, toss-up 146.

[mobuto]

5. Rasmussen was off the wall in 2000

but they did very well in 2002.

[Bombtrack]

2. I put OH, FL, PA, and WV as the most tossup-prone.

There are a number of other tossups/swingstates on either side, but for those 4 I don't see them leaning towards either party clearly.

[PA-DEM]

3. I assure you PA will be atleast a 5 point win for Kerry

5 straight polls now have Kerry leading in a head to head in PA. Pa has gone Dem the last three elections. But let this warm your heart. Keep in mind Gore won PA by 200,000.

2000-04-02 - Bush now has narrow lead among Pennsylvania voters
Seven months before the presidential election, Texas Gov. George W. Bush held a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore among Pennsylvania voters. But the latest Pennsylvania Poll suggests that Bush could significantly increase his chances of shifting the state to the Republican column by choosing Gov. Ridge as his running mate. Gore and Bush are both on the ballot in Tuesday's primary, but with their nominations wrapped up, their sights are already trained on November, when the state's 23 electoral votes, the fifth-largest total in the country, are up for grabs. In a survey of 416 registered voters who said they planned to vote in November, Bush led Gore 44 percent to 40 percent, assuming that Pat Buchanan was also on the ballot as the nominee of the Reform Party. Buchanan was supported by 5 percent and 11 percent were undecided. Substituting Ross Perot, the Reform Party's founder, for Buchanan produced a similar result, although Perot did slightly better than Buchanan. In that hypothetical matchup, the results were Bush 43 percent, Gore 38 percent, Perot 8 percent and undecided 11 percent. Bush's lead, in both scenarios, was within the poll's margin of error. But with the addition of Ridge, the GOP ticket fared significantly better. A Bush-Ridge ticket leads Gore by 47 percent to 33 percent, with 5 percent favoring the Reform Party and 15 percent undecided. The Pennsylvania Poll was conducted for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. from Tuesday through Thursday. The theoretical margin of error for the results of the 416 interviews was plus or minus 5 percent.

[Bombtrack]

6. I don't know why a poll from 4 years ago matters, but Bush was leading

the last poll by 4 points I beleive. Most before that had Kerry leading within the margin of error.

[PA-DEM]

7. Simple

Shows polls mean nothing 7 months out.

[Bombtrack]

8. No, they do mean something

Not the only thing but they are worth following.

[Woodstock]

25. I read recently Nader bit into Kerry's support by 5 points

and that was enough to give Bush the lead.

Hope you are right.

[Torgo Johnson]

4. Afternoon kick....

For anyone who cares


:kick:

[jsw_81]

9. Kerry ahead in OH, MI, PA, FL

Kerry can seal the deal by putting Bayh on the ticket. Bush is finished.

[PA-DEM]

10. I agree

I think he's done also.

[jmaier]

11. I see Kerry showing strongly in those

battleground states also but I don't see how adding Evan Bayh specifically helps in those states. Other than being a moderate to conservative Dem, he doesn't have much profile and isn't particularly experienced in national security. Watching him make the pundit rounds over the years, he's a solid but not very exciting communicator.

[jsw_81]

12. Look at Indiana on a map and then get back to me

The industial midwest is going to decide this race. Bayh, an extremely popular moderate Democrat who has been elected governor and senator in a traditionally Republican state, can deliver that region -- and the presidency -- for Kerry.

[IrateCitizen]

13. You're delusional if you believe that

Bayh isn't even recognized outside of IN. And please tell me how a free-trade, corporatist Democrat is going to capture Rust Belt votes from those folks who have been absolutely hammered by said policies?

Do a poll of IN and OH DUers and see how many think Bayh should be on the ticket. You won't find many takers -- and THEY are the ones who know the region a wee bit better than you.

[jsw_81]

14. So who should Kerry put on the ticket to capture the midwest?

Dennis Kucinich? :eyes:

[Bombtrack]

16. there aren't any good nominees from the midwest

it's just that simple. There are 3 good one's from the south though. Graham, Landrieu, and Edwards would all help Kerry most I believe. In that order

[w4rma]

19. Edwards, imho.

My rank of the folks bombtrack listed would be: Edwards, Graham, Landrieu.

[maisey03]

15. Ohio DUer here! :-)

No, I haven't heard of Bayh. Edwards seems to be pretty popular here (I'm in Ross county - South Central).

What I'm worried about is the SW - Dayton, Cinci. They have a fairly large population and are on the conservative side. I don't get the local paper, haven't seen any polls (other than the above)... They're really suffering w/jobs up in the north and esp. in the southern tip (though they ALWAYS have down there). Some people blame Bush, some don't. What I've learned about Ohio is that there never seems to be a consensus on anything!

[jmaier]

17. Actually, I'm from Indiana and my entire family still lives there

and Bayh is 'passively popular' in the state. I also have long ties to many folks in Ohio, my daughters live there, and I visit frequently. I doubt that Evan Bayh would sell many tickets at an Ohio Dem fundraiser. Don't get me wrong, I like Bayh and think he's a fine asset from an Indiana perspective, but he isn't going to pack them in to bring midwest state votes to Kerry. I'm not advocating for Dick Gephardt but I suspect that he would do better attracting the Ohio union crowd than Bayh.

[maisey03]

18. Gephardt = noooooooo.

These commentators or analysts, or whatever they're called have said more than once that Gephardt should be on the ticket because he could get the midwest since he voted against NAFTA and some Chinese trade agreement. Don't think so. He did so poorly in Iowa, which was one of the few states he was predicted to do well in. He's about as popular up here. I think he's shady and a dud.

Kucinch almost tied Dean for 3rd place in our district - that's good considering he's liberal! He has a strong core of supporters in Cleveland that have already been said to be large enough to affect Ohio's vote. I'd guess that Columbus has many supporters as well since they do rallies and things for him frequently up there. I'm not saying put him on the ticket, but he has a stronger influence on Ohio than most people here seem to think. If Kucinich is not treated fairly at the convention, I will be upset - I consider a diss on him to be a diss on Ohio since he is one of our reps. Even Ohioans I know who aren't supporters do feel the media's treatment of him is unfair. We're not a state Kerry wants to fool with. With a state like Ohio that is soooo swing, every little thing does make a difference.

I love all the attention that Ohio gets on this forum. :) Nobody seems to care about us until election time.

[fujiyama]

22. Agree...

Edwards would make a much better VP than Gephardt. Gep is just too old school - no freshness, not terribly exciting, and it's unlikely we're going to have too much trouble with union members anyways. Edwards will bring out union votes because he has a somewhat similar stance on trade (against NAFTA) and he also does much better with independants.

However, considering the recent terror attacks and the very possible chance of Usama getting captured or killed (and at the least Zawahihi getting captured or killed), I think Clark may be the better candidate.

[spooky3]

26. The union movement in OH is much weaker than it used to be.

And Gephardt did not deliver them in Iowa; he will not bring many votes to Kerry from OH.

Edwards (per the exit polls) and probably Clark would do better there.

Kucinich is seen by the more conservative folks in Cols and Cincinnati and less urban parts of the state as "too liberal." He cannot help Kerry much in OH, because the Cleveland area and the union-sympathizers will get out and vote for Kerry no matter who the VP is, but may be more likely to get out if the VP is charismatic.

Cincinnati is conservative, but Edwards did get the Cin. Enquirer (leading paper) endorsement.

[jsw_81]

21. Passively popular?

He's a Democrat who won landslide victories in a solid Republican state. I think it's safe to say that he's more than just "passively" popular.

[spooky3]

27. A lot of people fondly remember his father, Birch Bayh. That helps.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

20. JK should just pick the best and most appealing VP candidate.

If he picks someone who is weak or low profile for a possible one state pickup, it's a mistake.

For instance, I think Edwards would be good not because he could deliver NC (I'm not at all convinced that he could do that), but just because he is a strong campaigner and has a lot of appeal to people.

Likewise Clark. AK would be nice but I think his appeal and benefit to the campaign would be across the board.

[sandnsea]

23. Have to have a horse race

How much money would the media make if Kerry just kicked the shit out of Shrub from now until November? Gotta have those polls where 70% of Americans "share Bush's values" and think "he cares about me". Bullshit.

[spooky3]

24. GOhio!