Bush campaign close to writing off state as Democratic turf - Novak

[Bombtrack]

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-nws-novak17.html

<snip>

As for the general election, President Bush's managers are very close to writing off Illinois and conceding it to the Democrats. They won't say so out loud, of course, but the Republican high command needs signs of a major change in the state's climate before it will list the state under anything other than probable Democrat.

<snip>

Illinois also appears to be getting eliminated from serious consideration in the battle between George W. Bush and John Kerry for the presidency because of a change in the way the state is perceived. No longer a classic swing state that could go either way and produce famous standoffs in 1960 and 1976, Illinois is now considered the most reliably Democratic state in the Midwest.

The 2000 election had a lot to do with that revised image. Al Gore won 55 percent of the vote to Bush's 43 percent, with a 570,000 vote margin. If Illinois were subtracted from the national totals, Bush actually enjoyed a popular vote plurality in the rest of the country.

<snip>

[zbdent]

1. Let 'em. If they drop this, it's a good size chunk.

But we cannot let our guard down "believing" that it's totally ours for the asking.

[mobuto]

2. No, let 'em contest it

There's no way in hell, barring a Kerry collapse, that Bush will win Illinois. So let him spend money there. Better Illinois than Florida, Arizona or Pennsylvania.

[dogman]

3. The Minister Of Disinformation?

II wouldn't take his word for anything. He is always giving Dems his advice, as if he cared. I think the GOP candidate for Senate is honorable but I sure expect the Global Oil Project to do it's best to destroy us. I expect the racism to rise to the top downstate. An A**hole reporter already "slipped" and referred to Obama as Osama. Don't forget where Hastert and Hyde come from. These hypocrites who "promote democracy" are deeply offended that Spanish people had the audacity to vote out a fine conservative government. Hastert is deeply offended that Kerry referred to GOP goons as crooks and liars. This comment of course came the day after a Hastert campaign staffer slithered on the floor of the Kerry rally and held up signs with fellow freepers promoting the lying propaganda put forth by the Commander in Thief.

[MinnFats]

4. red herring? Rove: "Now, Bob, we need you to write a nice piece for us..."

and run up the flagpole the idea that we've written off Illinois! The Dems will think they've locked it up, and then with some federal pork and late appearances by Bush/Cheney, we'll put it back in play!"

Novak: "Great idea, Karl! I'll get right on it! You can count on me!'

[Bombtrack]

6. I guess Novak is guilty until proven innocent with you people

There is no proof that Novak is a tool of anyone. All you have to do is read his columns to see that. He has no love for Bush because he's a principaled conservative, not a party-minded hack.

[mobuto]

7. Principled conservative?

LOL. Novak may not be especially party-minded, but he sure is a hack. Not a terribly important one at that, either, except when he's publishing the names of CIA agents.

[Bombtrack]

10. No, he isn't. He has a decorated 40 year career. Every column with at

least 1 new scoop. You can disagree with him on his politics, but it's just unwarranted and rediculous to call him a hack. And there is no evidence he purpousfully went out to hurt or discredit anyone. The investigation is ongoing, but in democracies we should give the benefit of the doubt. One accusation, that the whitehouse shopped around the leak until he agreed has already been debunked by independant journalists. It was an open secret in Washington anyway of what Plame did. Honestly, our party did demogogue this issue for political gain, and clearly it's nothing compared to the things the GOP has done, but it's tit-for-tat bullshit and on discussion boards I'd like to rise above the talking point BS.

[tinanator]

9. did you say tool?

huh huh huh. Im not the least bit surprised to hear you take him at face value. maybe when you have some years under your belt you will see the error of your ways? For now, I would simply recommend thinking twice.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

5. Damn! I was hoping it was going to be California

He blew us off last time, but I guess with Arnold promising "to deliver California's electoral votes to Bush", we're in for a bombardment of television ads.

[davsand]

8. This has been out there for a while--Obama's win sealed the deal.

We heard before the primary that if anyone other than Hynes won that Senate primary race the GOP might target Illinois. Their logic was that anybody winning other than the "labor" or the machine candidate would indicate weakness in the Illinois Dem party (and thus an opening for asswipe/shrub in November.)

What they didn't count on was Obama winning the WAY he did. Obama won a Dem primary with 6 other guys in th race, and he still won with over 50%. He's black, he's progressive, and he's scary as hell to them because his definite win shows that the IL Dem party really does have an organization that is strong.

To be honest, if they are smart, they are also looking at how Hynes lost. He won almost all of downstate. He took something like 85 of the 102 counties in Illinois (don't quote that number--I'm working from memory here!) and that is a hell of an indicator of the fact that labor WAS organized for him.

Remember, Obama did have labor support from SEIU, AFSMCE, UNITE and Illinois Federation of Teachers--those are big organizations in terms of membership and even without those members, Hynes still won a lot of counties. His downstate organization was strong-and it was rooted in both the Dem party AND labor.

That support will swing to Obama now--and it will be formidable. It will also be behind Kerry... Bush does not want to blow time here on an election he's not gonna win--there is better turf for him.

Laura