Bush Leads In New Hampshire

[Bombtrack]

In New Hampshire, another battleground state, President Bush leads John Kerry in 45% to 39%, with Ralph Nader at 8%, according to a new American Research Group Poll. Without Nader, it is Bush 47% and Kerry 45%.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/presballot/

I figured that last college poll with Edwards and Kerry both leading Bush by double digits was crap. ARG is NH based. Unfortunatly we still have an uphill battle in NH. We need to flood it with the rest of New England democrats.

[stepnw1f]

1. American Research Group

Whatever...

[Bombtrack]

2. Uh, it's based in New Hampshire

it's better than that crappy college poll that was last done.

[Leilani]

6. ARG was pretty accurate

during the primaries, I believe.

Their daily tracking polls accurately predicted the trends.

[mobuto]

5. Uh, no

ARG is well respected. I believe this poll. Kerry had a great run for a couple of weeks, and then he screwed up some this past week. Its natural his numbers will fall a bit. The point is, that this race will be incredibly close.

[BootinUp]

3. Who are these 8% folks

me thinks they a little :crazy:

[Bombtrack]

4. Really. I've yet to meet one Nader voter. Why don't they freaking

speak up.

[tobius]

9. i'm no nader voter, but they may be scared to stick their head up

because they feel it will probably be chopped off.

[flaminbats]

30. I've known some...

most of them voted for Nader in 2000 but Democratic locally. In reality most of them are really Democrats who are having second thoughts about voting for Nader again..another reason for us not to drive them out!

The real question should be why doesn't Kerry favor IRV?

[LeftPeopleFinishFirst]

7. The interesting numbers there are..

The 13 percent of Republicans voting for Kerry vs. the 9 percent of Democrats voting for Bush.

[maisey03]

8. New Hampshire

I'm surprised that Bush could be doing so well in a state like NH - aren't they liberal up there? But, he did win NH in 2000, right? Sorry, I'm pretty new to the world of politics. I do think the liberal states, particularly the New England ones, are just as important as the midwest. They don't seem to be getting much attention! That's the only reason I'm hesitant about Clark and Edwards. If Kucinich were only more popular, I'd say put him on - he's got the liberal and trade issues all in one.

[West Coast Democrat]

11. No

not really

[Bombtrack]

14. There is only 1 swingstate and 1 longshot in New England

New Hampshire is a swingstate, a tossup. And Maine is a longshot bluestate, meaning it's a longshot for the GOP.

As far as NH being liberal, it isn't. I sort of liken it to Indiana. The midwest and New England used to be the strongholds of the GOP, but that's really withered away and your left with New England being heavily democratic, with one republican-leaning swingstate left(presidential-wise, they're still far right w/ congress), and the midwest leaning slightly democratic, with one heavily republican state(Indiana) and a bunch of tossups.

[maisey03]

15. Vermont

Is anyone concerned that VT will rebel and go the Nader or Dean write-in route? I know they would normally be in the clear, but they seem to have so much loyalty for Dean...

That's interesting about NH - they're in a bad location for a moderate state! :D

[mobuto]

16. No.

Vermont will vote Democratic.

[Leilani]

17. New Hampshire used to be very, very Conservative

but it has changed in recent years, as many people from Massachusetts have moved there.

But it's not a Dem state; it's a Republican state that sometimes votes Dem.

[Atlant]

22. The trouble with that theory is that...

> New Hampshire used to be very, very Conservative but it has changed
> in recent years, as many people from Massachusetts have moved there.

The trouble with that theory is that it's the only the Right Wing
Assholes who chose to move from Massachusetts to here (to join their
Right Wing Brethren already here); the liberals know what they've
got in Massachusetts and stay there. NH is still anathema for
liberalism.

Atlant

[Atlant]

19. NH is the home of the Republican Party. We're also the chosen site of...

> I'm surprised that Bush could be doing so well in a state like NH -
> aren't they liberal up there?

I think you have us confused with Vermont, home of Howard Dean.

NH is the home of the Republican Party. We're also the chosen site of
the "Free State Project", an invasion by Libertarians. We're the place
that all the Massacusetts Republicans move to in the hopes of paying
less tax. Being a liberal may actually be some kind of crime in this
state.

[delhurgo]

10. Kerry has had a bad couple of weeks.

First there was the "liars and crooks" remark, then saying foreign leaders are for him, then the heckler incident,...I can't remember what all else. But it all seems to have occurred at the same time. I'm surprised he's made so many mistakes. He was so sure footed during the primaries, and he's normally a very careful politician.

And also the negative ads are starting to take effect: they're making him look especially bad re taxes and national security.

The earlier polls weren't wrong; they've just changed that much. His campaign needs to get a grip.

[WI_DEM]

12. who is voting for Nader

More Republicans than Democrats according to this poll--9% of Republicans vs. 4% of Democrats. That is interesting.

[Jacobin]

13. What's wrong with these people?

Did the entire rural population of Alabama move there?

[Atlant]

18. Why do you think NH "Democrats" voted for Kerry?

Could it be that a significant fraction of the vote in the NH
"Democratic" Primary actually came from Republicans who want
Bush to win?

Iowa and NH are *TERRIBLE* places to pick Democratic "contenders".

Atlant

[mzmolly]

20. WTF?! How nice for Mr. Bush and his elf, Nader.

:nuke:

[TheStateChief]

21. Wasn't Kerry Up 15% Last Month?

Losing that much support in one month is just amazing. How can this be happening?

[mobuto]

23. No he wasn't

In fact a January poll by the Concord Monitor showed Bush up by 14 points, so Kerry's actually doing quite well. This race will be close and Kerry's had a rough week, but his poll numbers look good.

[PA-DEM]

24. voters (157 Republicans, 130 Democrats, and 176 undeclared voters)

Is it just me or does this seem a little off balance?

voters (157 Republicans, 130 Democrats, and 176 undeclared voters)

[Atlant]

25. That wouldn' be at all surprising.

"Undeclared" is very popular in NH; it's tres chic for all those
angry white men who are Republicans but don't want to admit it
to themselves, their wives, or anyone else.

And the best part is that THEY GET TO VOTE IN OUR PRIMARY! :(

That's why you got Kerry instead of someone who would actually
stand up for anything. :( :(

Atlant

[rumguy]

26. check out the new Zogby poll in GD

Kerry is ahead.

[zulchzulu]

27. Nader may not make it on NH ballot

From Nader site:
"Need to submit 3,000 valid signatures, 1,500 from each of two congressional districts therefore our goal is to collect 4,000 signatures - 2,000 from each district - by June 2."

So if you see someone trying to sign up people for Nader, do your job. Sign up as George Bush.

[mot78]

28. Be careful with that remark

Or else FR and Neal Boortz will quote it.

[MAlibdem]

29. im an hour from the border

let's get to it!