Zogby Poll: Kerry 48, Bush 46

[mobuto]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=812


Kerry 48, Bush 46; With Nader It's a Tie; Kerry Leads Big in the Blues, Bush Leads Big in the Reds; Bush Preferred If Terror Hits US, New Zogby International Poll Reveals



With less than eight months to go before the presidential election, likely voters are almost evenly divided in their support for a candidate to capture the White House in November. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a slight edge of 48% to 46% over President George W. Bush.

Candidate
March 17-19 %

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
48

President George W. Bush
46

Undecided
5


When Independent candidate Ralph Nader is added, Kerry and Bush are tied with 46% each, followed by Nader at 3%.

Candidate
March 17-19 %

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
46

President George W. Bush
46

Independent Ralph Nader
3

Undecided
5


In the Blues States, those that were won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 56% support, as compared to Bush with 38%. However, in the Red States, those won by President Bush in 2000, Bush leads with 53% to Kerry’s 40%.

Candidate
Blues States %
Red States %

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
56
40

President George W. Bush
38
53

Undecided
4
6


If a major terrorist attack were again to hit the United States, 51% of likely voters prefer to be led by Bush as compared to Kerry with 40%.

Candidate
March 17-19 %

President George W. Bush
51

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry
40

Undecided
6


Overall, however, President Bush's job performance rating continues to slide with 53% of likely voters giving him an negative rating (Fair-Poor), and 46% granting him a positive rating (Excellent-Good). On the important re-elect question, only 45% say that the President “deserves to be re-elected”, while 51% say it “time for someone new” in. Voters also expressed concerns regarding the country's direction. A plurality of voters (50%) feel that the United States is headed on the wrong track, while 44% say that the country is headed in the right direction.

Almost one in three (30%) identified jobs and the economy as top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (16%), the war in Iraq (12%), health care (10%), and education (8%).

Pollster John Zogby: "This is predictably unpredictable. The President's job performance is down as is his re-elect. The country's direction is a net negative. Kerry seems to have weathered the first week of both blistering attacks from the President and Vice-President and his clumsy claim of support from foreign leaders. The President holds on to strong support among Republicans, but he is having trouble with Independents. Both sides have the gloves off and this tempo should continue because the race is just so tight.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 1065 likely voters chose at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Wednesday, March 17th through Friday, March19. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. Nice!

This, after bombarding the airwaves with all sorts of attack and "little pink house" ads for the last two weeks. And, without the benefit of the Clarke story. One can only speculate how much further he'll drop once the Clarke/9-11 story sinks into the news cycles.

:bounce:

[oasis]

2. Pre-Clarke bombshell (eom)

[Kahuna]

3. Good! Zogby is generally accurate.

nt

[grok]

4. It looks sweet BUT

If there is a terrorist attack, Bush essentially slam dunks Kerry. According to this poll. Add Nader into the mix and a 14-15 point loss seems likely.

The problem is a terrorist attack after Madrid is VERY likely. If so, and at the wrong time, it could mean we lose our filibuster edge in the senate.

I'm sorry, but this looks VERY scary to me.

If only we had a bit of control of events. It seems our fate is in Osama's hands.

Grok

[Bombtrack]

6. I saw another reputable poll where the opposite held true

The question was phrased a bit differently. It was if another attack occured would you be more likely, less likely, or the same to to vote for Bush. There were twice as many less likely than more likely. It wasn't a crap poll either because it was on one of the national news broadcasts. Can't remember if it was a Network, CNN, or MSNBC.

Basically, polls in the swingstates are more important right now than these nationals.

[maisey03]

9. Why, oh, why...

is Dubya so strong on national security? Intelligence officials openly admitted pre-New Year's that we are unprepared to deal with a terrorist attack. Several airports do not have the new security they are required to have. They said that we are totally unprepared to deal with attacks by sea - cargo ships. A few months ago, mock terrorist planes flew into DC without so much as a glance from security. Yeah, a terrorist attack is likely to be successful - why would Dubya be the best at handling it? Because he attacked Iraq which has no proven direct link to Al-Quaeda?

Hopefully, national security won't be a problem for Kerry. During their primary, WI ranked jobs as their #1 issue, while national security ranked dead last. Florida is more of a long shot with national security, but if he can get enough midwestern states, FL won't matter. Kerry will be making a mistake if he puts focus on national security. Even if there is another attack, wouldn't it just put criticism on Dubya? Many people thought he made a bad move by not concentrating on homeland security, and instead, Iraq.

[sventvkg]

5. Way way way too close and really really disturbing...

one "Incident" and Bush Wins easily..What the hell are people thinking?" how can they be so blid and deaf to reality????

[Bombtrack]

7. That's one poll and the question is phrased in a way that favors Bush

I wouldn't call it a loaded question, but "would you rather be lead by" isn't quite the same thing as whether your vote will be certainly changed. Think about it.

[grok]

8. the problem with zogby

is that he indirectly forces the people that are polled to vote, one way or the other. 5 percent undecided is ludicrusly low at this point.

However, he is good as any other when it comes to trends. And that 11-14 point "terrorism" trend is STILL disturbing. It's still not worded THAT badly.

I'd like to see other polls as that same question, of course worded differently, and see what they say so we can get a better picture.

Grok