A sudden sharp turn in the Rasmussen poll Kerry 47-44

[59millionmorons]

So you dint think these recent revelations are having an effect. Kerry was down 48-45 on Monday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. by Friday Bush will be polling in the high 30s

[Frodo]

2. Rasmussen just isn't reliable.

It's a very different (and scientifically unsound IMHO) process than a normal poll. And, bias aside, he just doesn't have a very good track record.

I won't take even "good news" from him as meaning anything

[mobuto]

5. I'm not sure its so clear-cut

Yes Rasmussen produces different results from other polls, and yes they were way off in 2000, but they seemed to get the 2002 elections and the 2004 primaries spot-on.

[lancdem]

6. That's true

We'll have to see if this is confirmed in any other polls in the next couple of days.

[West Coast Democrat]

14. You're right, Rasmussen IS biased

they do polling for Fox News.

[Nicholas_J]

18. No they dont...

Fox has its own pollster called Opinion Dynamics which is pretty much owned by the same company that owns Fox.

FOx has reported Rasmussen Results, but they have also reported Zogby, Gallop and other pollsters and compared them to their own. FOx uses Opinion Dynamics to its own polls.

[West Coast Democrat]

26. Rasmussen is a well-known Republican pollster

just do a google

[livetohike]

3. Kerry's short vacation

put him out of the spotlight for a few days. He will keep the lead in the polls once he gets back out on the stump, imo.

Also, in listening in to the 9-11 hearings, I think this will be very damaging to Bush and company (especially the refusal to have Rice testify).

[David__77]

9. On the vacation.

It's interesting how the past week or so has played out. It's almost like Kerry is the incumbant or something. He has kept a lower profile, which might be smart, lest some people get to tired of seeing him. We need "Bush fatigue" instead. We need to keep the spotlight on Cheney, Bush and the their failures and destruction of the country.

[asjr]

10. Actually, I think it was wise

of Kerry to stay out of the spotlight while the 9/11 commission is meeting. Lets the commission get all the coverage. Kerry will come back refreshed and ready to take on Shrub again.

[Capn Sunshine]

16. It's not as if he's COMPLETELY out of the limelight

Ex Senator BOB KERREY is a significant part of the panel.

The name is staying in front of our consciousness, even if unintentional.

[Ganja Ninja]

4. YES! It has been a very good week and it only gets better today...

at 1:30 when Clarke testifies.

[flpoljunkie]

7. A significant, one-day turnaround.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Kerry 47% Bush 44%

Rasmussen Reports Home
 
Wednesday March 24, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry at 47%, President George W. Bush at 44%, and "some other candidate" at 4%.

These numbers reflect quite a change in the race after Bush had been leading Kerry for seven straight days. The recent news cycle may be taking a toll on the President's numbers. Only time will tell whether this is a lasting shift or just a temporary aberration.

Ratings for President Bush's handling of the "situation in Iraq" have declined over the past week. Just 43% of Americans give the President good or excellent marks in this area. That's down from 47% a week ago. The President's numbers have also declined in the economic arena.

[Kahuna]

8. YEAH, BABY! YEAH!

[rasputin1952]

23. LOL...Oh, BEEEHAVE !...

:)

[Lexingtonian]

11. shorter Rasmussen poll summary, January-August 2004

Kerry 45
Bush 45

plus a couple of people who keep bouncing our results around within a barely respectable margin of error on daily whims. By the way, Kerry wins if Undecideds split the usual way. We'd lose our lucrative polling contract if we don't pretend that there's all kinds of drama and equal hopes for both sides here, though. Oh yeah, there's also Ñader. Somewhere. Something. Whatever.

[Thrill]

12. Show me in state polls

Polls like these don't reflect the true feeling of the voters. What are we looking like in NH, WV, OH, FL. Thats what I want to know. These polls are ridiculous. Especially if most are the people are in conservative parts of the country.

[Lexingtonian]

13. actually, 45/45 is about right there.

Bush and Kerry very close to balance out in the solid Red and solid Blue states. Bush 53-38 in Red, Kerry 55-40 in Blue states considered out of contention in comparative polling.

January and February polling in the 17 or 18 swing states (with about equal split in EVs in 2000) in aggregate split 45/45/10 before Nader got in. Nader net takes out 2-4% of Undecideds for a split of about 45/45/3/7. The Undecideds show up as mostly, sometimes even completely, as Kerry voters in 'softer' polling. Undecideds tend to split for Third Party candidates and against incumbents.

It's far too early for polls to have real predictive power in the states you mention. The polls there amount to saying 'Swing state people think Bush sucks as badly as everyone else does on aggregate, but it's seven months to the election and some event could yet drive Undecided voters one way or the other despite a mild general bias in Kerry's direction.'

[liskddksil]

19. New Pennsylvania Poll

Hi, i'm brand new to this board. I go to Muhlenberg College and work in the polling institute, where this poll was conducted.
Kerry 45
Bush 45

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5pollmar24,0,1445279.story?coll=all-news-hed

[mobuto]

20. Welcome aboard

Thanks - that's great.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi liskddksil!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[maisey03]

21. I see those national numbers as being accurate...

in Ohio. I've been seeing some worriesome articles, though. The suburbs of Dayton and Cincinnati have had a lot of growth in the past few years. I don't know WHY, and where they're getting jobs (?). Anyway, the SW is a problem even w/o the growth because they have a reputation for being conservative. Bush has already been there campaigning twice that I know of. Cleveland has our largest population of Democratic voters, but they've lost a lot of people since the last election. It used to be said that if a candidate wins in Columbus and Cleveland, he'll win Ohio. It's not the case anymore - my district, in the South Central region, is also pretty conservative, but we're the poorest area. I see us swinging either way, also the Southeast. But, if the SW goes Republican, which it is likely to do, and the SC and SE do, too, Bush will very likely win. Most people here don't trust Bush with the economy, but are still unsure about Kerry. It's split with a lot of undecideds. I see Ohio as Kerry's if he wants it badly enough. His biggest hurdle (in Ohio) will be convincing people that he's better for the economy.

Sorry, I know I like to talk about my state a lot :P, but I know it's a big concern for the Democrats, so I try to report what I can. Maybe Kerry will check in here sometime!

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

15. can you say 'richard clarke'?

just wait til bob woodward's book comes out. supposedly, that's the one the white house is REALLY afraid of

[Nicholas_J]

17. Another issue is that Kerry is ahead of Bush

In states that Bush won in 2000. Bush Won Florida by 1/10 of a percent in 2000, Kerry is four points ahead of him in the average of all of the last 4 polls taken in that state.

Ohio is more interesting in the Bush won that state by 4 percent in 2000, and now Kerry is 4 percent ahead of Bush in that state.


Kerry is still trouncing Bush in almost every large electoral vote states. Winning at least half of these states is an absolute if you want to win the election and rigght now out of the nine largest and most critical states to win to win in the electoral college, Bush is not leading in any of them in which there are have been polls and even Texas is not a sure thing for him. A c candidate absolutely MUST win half of those states to have a shot at the electoral college, or win at least 75 percent of every other state and win at least one of the largest states. Iit is possible for Bush, but the trend in the electorral college is directly towards Kerry at this time.

All of these polls were extremely accurate during the primaries and Rasmussen alone did the best job of predicting Edwards rise and then fall. Given that Rasmussen is supposedly biased in the direction of conservatives, Kerry being ahead in this poll is even a better iindication for Kerry than usual, though I have absolutely seen nothing that would indicate that Rasmussen is biased or uses methdology that differs from anyone elses. A pollster who gives wrong information doesnt stay in business very long. And how accurate they are during presidential campaigns is advertising for them, so they are no likely to play with these polls.

I have seen many people criticuze Rasmussen for his past results but the arguments have been based on the fact that he didnt get the results that the people criticising him wanted to see. Invariably however most of the time, he has been accurate, which is something I like to see. He has been far more accrate than Zogby has been this year.

[DaveSZ]

22. .

Dito on the Rice refusal to testify.

Kerry needs to drive that home.

[ibegurpard]

24. Although seeing Bush down in polls is definitely a good thing

I would venture to say that polls at this point are virtually meaningless. That is to say, I wouldn't worry about ones that put him ahead and I wouldn't be too confident about ones that put him behind until much closer to the election.