Dick Morris: BLOWOUT IN THE MAKING (GOP ads showing Kerry liberal work)

[papau]

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03242004/postopinion/opedcolumnists/21657.htm


A BLOWOUT (Bush victory) IN THE MAKING March 24, 2004 -- THE Bush ads are working: Two weeks ago, the Washington Post poll showed Sen. John Kerry ahead of President Bush by 11 points, and the Gallup Poll had him up by 8, while more recent polls reflect a dead heat between the two. Zogby (March 21) has Kerry up by only 48-46, and Rasmussen (March 20) has it Bush 46, Kerry 45. <snip>

But with the gap closing because of Kerry's drop, the impact is likely to last a lot longer. The fact is that 6 to 9 percent of Americans were voting for the Democrat two weeks ago and now are undecided. The doubts that Bush's ads are raising about Kerry are not going to go away; they will grow as the ads continue and the facts pile up.

The polls are starting to reflect the effectiveness of Bush's ads, which depict Kerry explaining his ultra-liberal record to the voters. This Democrat, who escaped scrutiny by posing as the un-Dean in the primary, is now being revealed as the leftist he is.

Having defeated the three candidates of his party who might have beaten Bush - Wesley Clark, Joe Lieberman and John Edwards - Kerry is finding out that America is a centrist nation. <snip>

[IronLionZion]

1. ultra-liberal?

that's bullshit. He's liberal but not radical. Bush is the ultra-neoconservative

[SemperEadem]

36. isn't Dick Morris an alcoholic prostitute john

who has no credibility?

[Avalux]

2. Dick Morris.....

Whore! Poor Dick.

[jbfam4]

4. your picture is priceless

[Avalux]

7. Thanks!

:hi:

[BootinUp]

3. This message brought to you by RWingers Inc.

eom

[fizzana]

5. Is this the same Dick Morris who adamantly predicted that

Hillary Clinton was about to enter the race.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

6. If America is centrist, then how did * get elected? uh, dick?

why oh why are there so many dicks in the repug party?
Also, this man has never been right bout anything in his life!

[bkcc]

8. ridiculous...

First of all...the NY Post is a conservative rag, not worth the paper it's written on.

Second, Dick Morris is hardly objective.

Third, Joe Lieberman "might have beaten Bush"?!? In what alternate dimension?

[gWbush is Mabus]

9. bush starting with low expectations again

[mobuto]

10. I love Dick Morris!

Seriously, Dick Morris is the best political prognosticator around. Properly used, he's flawless. You just have to listen to what he says, and expect the exact opposite. Since 1996, he has predicted the outcome of many elections. And every single one of his predictions has been wrong.

So this is very good news indeed.

If Dick Morris predicted that a candidate running unopposed for elective office would win, I'm convinced some write-in would materialize out of the ether and beat him.

When Morris starts to predict a Kerry blowout, that's when you should start to look for real estate in Canada.

Seriously, Morris must be doing this on purpose. This isn't just random chance, the pattern is overwhelming - there's just no way you can get every single race wrong.

[meegbear]

22. I think that's great ...

This guy is making "coin toss" yes/no predictions and he STILL gets them wrong.

What a putz.

[mobuto]

24. Simple chance doesn't explain it

A monkey throwing darts would at least get some on target. It just seems mathematically impossible for anybody to be wrong all the time. Morris is incredible.

[Skip Intro]

11. boy, how things can change in five days huh?

from this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x479966

dick morris needs a new job

latest rasmussen poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Kerry 48% Bush 44%

Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush
44%

Kerry
48%

Other
4%

Not Sure
5%

Thursday March 25, 2004

Data from the past two days makes it clear that the recent news cycle is taking a toll on the President's numbers. Today's figures represent a net decline of seven points for the President in the past three days.

In addition to the increasing support for Senator Kerry, Rasmussen Reports has also found that the President's job approval ratings have fallen to their lowest level of the year.

[mouse7]

12. Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke...

Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke, Clarke,

[mzmolly]

13. Money talks... bullshit walks. And the Republicans are full of both.

:(

[still_one]

14. Dick Morris should stick to what he is good at

cheating on his wife

[Armstead]

16. Sucking the toes of prostitutes

[mouse7]

23. That implies Morris can "get some" without paying for it. He can't.

Morris needs to whore himself out for cash. He needs massive cash in large denominations because the only women that will sleep with him take cash only and don't take American Express.

[papau]

15. Kerry 48% Bush 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Kerry 48% Bush 44%
Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 44%
Kerry 48%
Other 4%
Not Sure 5%

Thursday March 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John F. Kerry at 48%, President George W. Bush at 44%, and "some other candidate" at 4%. Data from the past two days makes it clear that the recent news cycle is taking a toll on the President's numbers. Today's figures represent a net decline of seven points for the President in the past three days.

In addition to the increasing support for Senator Kerry, Rasmussen Reports has also found that the President's job approval ratings have fallen to their lowest level of the year(50%) of American voters now give President Bush's job performance their approval while 49% disapprove. This matches the President's lowest rating of the year. As the year began, the Job Approval rating was at 57%.One of the most significant underlying factors in the President's job approval figures is the nation's level of economic confidence).


Date Bush Kerry
Today 44 48
Mar 24 44 47
Mar 23 47 45
Mar 22 48 45
Mar 21 47 45
Mar 20 46 45
Mar 19 47 43
Mar 18 47 43
Mar 17 46 45
Mar 16 45 47
Mar 15 44 46
Mar 14 45 44
Mar 13 46 44
Mar 12 46 45
Mar 11 46 46
Mar 10 45 46
Mar 9 46 46
Mar 8 46 46
Mar 7 46 46
Mar 6 45 46
Mar 5 45 47
Mar 4 46 46
Mar 3 47 46
Mar 2 47 46
Mar 1 49 45
Feb 29 48 45
Feb 28 47 45
Feb 27 47 45
Feb 26 48 45
Feb 25 49 44
Feb 24 47 45
Feb 23 46 46
Feb 22 46 45
Feb 21 47 45
Feb 20 49 43
Feb 19 48 44
Feb 18 48 43
Feb 17 45 46
Feb 16 44 47
Feb 15 44 48
Feb 14 46 46
Feb 13 47 45
Feb 12 47 46
Feb 11 46 45
Feb 10 46 45
Feb 9 46 45
Feb 8 46 45
Feb 7 46 46
Feb 6 47 44
Feb 5 47 43
Feb 4 47 43
Feb 3 46 45
Feb 2 44 46
Feb 1 43 46
Jan 31 42 45
Jan 30 44 45
Jan 29 45 43
Jan 28 45 42
Jan 27 45 42
Jan 26 44 42
Jan 25 46 41
Jan 24 47 39
Jan 23 46 40
Jan 22 45 40
Jan 21 46 40
Jan 20 48 37
Jan 19 50 35
Dates are release dates Surveys conducted on preceding three nights

[NWHarkness]

17. Dick Morris can go suck a toe

[RobertSeattle]

18. This is a dupe from yesterday

Who are what Dick Morris thinks?

[SonofMass]

39. I think therefore I are.

.

[dolstein]

19. Part wishful thinking, but with a grain of truth

Look, I'm sure that Dick Morris hates Kerry and is certainly hoping for the outcome he's predicting. But there's also a grain of truth --Kerry's standing in the polls was somewhat inflated due the absence of harsh attacks during the primary. And many of the people supporting Kerry in the polls know relatively little about him. So Bush's negative ads can eat away at Kerry's soft support, especially if they go unanswered.

Personally, I think Kerry will lose the race, but probably not in the kind of landslide Morris predicts.

[lancdem]

29. If he does lose, it will be a first, because incumbents with ratings

at 50 percent or below don't win, period. Bush's approval rating is what's important, and the election will be a referendum on him, not Kerry. His attacks have hurt Kerry, but have not helped him approval-wise. If Bush's ratings were in the mid-50s, it wouldn't matter whom he ran, Bush would win. But that's not the case at the moment. BTW, I believe the Kerry campaign will be on the offensive very soon. At least I hope so. :)

[Jackpine Radical]

32. There's more than one factor at work.

If Kerry's standing was inflated by the lack of harsh attacks, it was similarly "deflated" due to low name recognition, while Bush had near-100% name recog. And Kerry is still ahead of Bush despite the first round of negative ads. As people become more familiar with Kerry (learning to distinguish him from Bob Kerrey for starters) and as his campaign beginss to take effect, Shrub will slowly sink in popular esteem, especially as the 9-11 sideshow, the Medicare lies, and other stories percolate along. The only thing that might save Bush is a combination of a complete news blackout on negative stories plus a lot of judicious vote tampering and election-rigging.

[Sandpiper]

20. The NY Post is a Rupert Murdoch fish wrapper

n/t

[Zorra]

33. And I'm pretty sure Dick Morris is still a republican. He was

during the Clinton administration.

[AJ BENDER]

21. Please ... It's still March fer Chrissakes !

Are we getting a wee bit overanxious here regarding a Morris prediction in March.... seven months + before the election. Giving the fickleness of the public you're bound to see a lot of poll swinging this year.

:smoke: if you got em.


p.s. Q : Whats the difference between the NY Post & toilet paper ?
A: Toilet paper has only got shit on one side !

Oh yeah .. the crack post pollster had Hillary losing her Senate race by 18 points a day before she won.

[Go Eagles]

26. off with his head

Week after week he is on Faux pulling out some asinine prediction. He seems to selectively ignore the fallout that is occurring regarding the 9/11 hearings, revelations about Bush concealing the costs of his Medicare programs and how he has moved the insolvency date up 12 years. Agree that there is a lot of up and down fluctuation and the fall with give us a more accurate picture. Remember a little over a year ago they had written the election off and declared Shrub unbeatable.

[lancdem]

25. Morris is full of it

Kerry's lead over Bush is gone, but Bush's horse-race numbers haven't moved at all, and his approval rating is still under 50 percent. The number of undecideds has increased, and if those people don't like Bush now after 3-plus years, they won't like him in November, either. The anti-Bush vote is still 54 percent.

Also, notice Morris cites Zogby and Rasmussen. They NEVER had Kerry with a lead of 6-9 points. Plus, Ramussen now has Kerry ahead by 4. Incumbents with approval ratings at 50 percent or lower don't win in landslides; they lose - always.

[TheWebHead]

27. let Morris spew

the more complacent they are, the better.

[The Backlash Cometh]

28. New York Post? Aren't they the conservative paper?

*

[mobuto]

30. LOL

The New York Post is the worst newspaper in the country. Its a Murdoch rag that's basically used to vet potential Fox News propaganda. Seriously, they'll print anything in it, and if it seems to stick they immediatly put it up on Fox News. On any given day, you'll read editorials comparing John Kerry to Osama bin Laden, and other delightful comments in the spirit of national unity. Its really a shame because decades ago the New York Post was New York's crusading liberal paper.

I wouldn't put too much stock into Morris' comments anyway. The guy has gotten EVERY single prediction wrong in EVERY election. His incompetence seems mathematically impossible.

[zulchzulu]

31. Bush's lies in the ads will be exposed

RoveCo are already blowing their wad on distortions and lies in the ads against Kerry.

They are acting like the election is next week. The lies will be exposed soon enough and then all credibility for RoveCo's attacks will be seen as nothing more than cheap negative campaigning and lies.

Dick Morris should stick to dressing up like a gal and getting tied to a bed and paying the whore for it. He's probably really good at that.

[rocktivity]

34. Consider the sources

Murdoch's New York Post, GOP contributors Gallup, and Dick Morris, of whom comedian Chris Rock once said, "What kind of a guy has the need to impress A HOOKER????"

:headbang:
rocknation

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

35. Murdoch's Fox, get the picture?

[West Coast Democrat]

37. I'm relieved to hear this........

We all know how OFF Dick Morris' political predictions are.

[mobuto]

38. Exactly

Morris is the kiss of death. If Osama bin Laden were running for President, and Dick Morris predicted he'd lose, some way, some how he'd find a way to win and he'd win in a landslide. There's a universal law of physics somewhere that states that no Dick Morris political prediction can ever be correct. This guy is really remarkable.

[jsw_81]

40. Dick Morris is wrong about virtually everything

In 1998, Morris predicted a Republican landslide because of the Monica scandal. On election day, Democrats won big.

During the 1999 impeachment trial, he predicted that President Clinton would be removed from office and said that the Republican strategy was "brilliant." But not only was Clinton acquitted, but the Republicans -- who controlled the Senate at the time -- failed to muster even a majority to convict.

In 1999, Morris predicted that Hillary Clinton would NOT run for U.S. Senate in 2000. She ran. Morris then predicted that she would lose. She won by ten points.

Also in 2000, Morris predicted that McCain would beat Bush and win the Republican nomination. McCain lost by a huge margin.

And now he's predicting that Bush will crush Kerry? I'm not worried.

[West Coast Democrat]

41. Thanks for your detailed history of Dick's predictions

It's good to educate DUers on this topic.

[BGrier]

42. Morris Went From Using Prostitutes To Becoming One

Move along. Nothing to see here.