ARG: West Virginia: Kerry, 46; Bush, 46; Nader, 2

[mobuto]

This poll, just released, looks like it probably understimates Kerry. Its of likely voters, which skew Republican. Kerry also has 5% less name recognition, which is another plus.



PRESIDENT
American Research Group poll. March 23-24, 2004. N=600 likely voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (total sample):


"I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before. The first name is . Have you ever heard of before?" If Yes: "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ?" Names rotated

AWARE Favorable Unfavorable Unsure
% % % %
George W. Bush 100 61 37 2
Ralph Nader 97 10 76 11
John Kerry 95 45 36 14
.

"If the election for president were being held today between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote: Bush, Kerry, or Nader?" Names rotated

Bush Kerry Nader Unsure
% % % %
ALL 46 46 2 6
Republicans 88 5 1 6
Democrats 22 71 2 5
None/Minor party 51 33 3 13

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Oh but Nader's not a factor!

Didn't you get the memo? There's no proof Nader voters wouldn't vote for Bush.

:eyes:

[w4rma]

2. Dems can win West Virginia. Sen. Byrd has been one of Bush's most vocal

critics.

[genius]

3. How about inviting the Nader voters to have a say in the platform?

That would wipe out Nader's campaign and save our party.

[mobuto]

4. I have a better idea!

Nader isn't supported by more than 3% of the population or so. Bush has 50% support. So why don't we invite all the Bush supporters to have a say in the platform? That would wipe out Bush's campaign and save our party!

Or maybe we should stick to being Democrats, and let the Republicans and fringe lefties go to hell.

[lancdem]

5. LOL

BTW, check out this Web site and see why he thinks Nader shouldn't even be included in polls at this point: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

[Mr. Wookie]

7. Polls?

I'm confused. I see different poll numbers everywhere I look. What is the best source?? Oh and I enjoyed watching Clarke hand bush's ass to him. Very entertaining, and very reassuring.

[newyawker99]

11. Hi Mr. Wookie!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[lancdem]

6. This is good news

Any poll that has Kerry tied or running a few points behind is a state he'll probably win because undecideds overwhelmingly go to the challenger, not the incumbent. West Virginia can be added to the list of red states Kerry can win, along with Ohio and Florida. BTW, the last poll I saw of Colorado, another red state, had Bush only leading Kerry by 4.

[jsw_81]

8. May Ralph Nader and his idiot supporters burn in hell

[WI_DEM]

12. what about the 22% of Democrats who are voting for Bush?

it is easy to point the finger at Nader and his supporters but when nearly 1/4 democrats are voting for Bush it is difficult to say he is the reason for West Virginia being close.

[Bombtrack]

9. This is consistent with my current assessments

right now I see 4 clear tossup states. Other than them, every yr 2000 red and blue swingstate lean towards the party that won them in 2000. But the 4 I see as tossups are Florida, Ohio, West Virginia and New Hampshire, all red. However Pennsylvania and Minnesota are right on the cusp of becoming tossups from Leaning blue.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. West Virginia Has Changed For The Worse....

Even Dukakis carried it by a comfortable margin...