Ohio Poll: Kerry Leading (Kerry 46- - Bush, 44 -- Nader, 5)

[mobuto]

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/2004_Prez_032604.pdf

Poll was of 632 registered Ohio voters, March 10-March 22, conducted mostly before the Senator's recent bounce. MoE is +/- 3.9%.

[DaveSZ]

1. I like our odds there in Ohio,

but we must also be sure and hold Pennsylvania.

Bush has been stumping his ass off there, and the middle of Penn is like Alabama.

Kerry on the other hand has only been there once!!!!!

Get your ass over there Kerry!

[Thrill]

2. Do you think Nader

will stay in?

[Kathleen04]

13. I don't see Nader leaving

He knows what he's got himself into and what the consequences could possibly be.

Alot of people told him not to run before he got in..yet he threw his hat in the ring anyways..so I don't see anything changing his mind now.

[Hippo_Tron]

15. The better question is will he get on the ballot in Ohio...

Because if he didn't, that would be nice.

[swag]

4. Well, Kerry's getting closer to Ohio at least

And his message in Michigan should resonate:

from www.johnkerry.com

Friday, March 26 – Michigan

Detroit, MI – Doors open at 11:00 am EST
John Kerry will give a speech on Jobs and the Economy at Wayne State University at the Community Arts Auditorium in Detroit, MI.

Warren, MI – Doors open at 5:00 pm EST
John Kerry will host a Rally for America’s Jobs in Warren, MI at UAW Region 1 on 27800 George Merrelli Drive in Warren, MI.

Saturday, March 27 – Missouri

St. Louis, MO – Doors open TBD
John Kerry will host a Rally with Missouri Democrats at the World's Fair Pavillion at Forest Park in St. Louis, MO.

Monday, March 29 – California

John Kerry will host an event in Sacramento, California. Stay tuned for details!

Tuesday, March 30 – California

John Kerry will host an event in California – check back soon for more details!

ps:

http://contribute.johnkerry.com

[mobuto]

5. Pennsylvania will be an uphill battle for Bush

The economy has been especially bad in a state that has already been leaning Democratic.

[jsw_81]

8. And don't forget the Heinz factor

Teresa Heinz was married to a senator from Pennsylvania for several years and her foundation has spent millions building schools, libraries, and museums all over the state. She is NOT going to allow Bush to take her beloved Pennsylvania.

[MoonRiver]

3. Great news!

If Nader drops out or goes down just 2 we're easily outside the MOE!
:bounce:

[Bombtrack]

6. We'd have to be separated by 7.8 points, to be outside the MOE

I used to think that it was just the numerical of the MOE but it's plus or minus.

I'd say Ohio is still a tossup but on the cusp of slightly leaning democrat.

[jsw_81]

7. It's too early to get excited, but you can't help but smile

Reagan and Clinton were kicking their opponents a-- at this point in their re-election campaigns; Bush is tied or behind in virtually every poll.

And I'll say it again: Screw Ralph Nader and his idiotic supporters.

[July]

9. WTF is UP with the Nader results in recent polls?

I was reading Daily Kos's thread on the Ohio poll earlier today, and someone commented that Nader got about 2% in Ohio in 2000, and that he thought he'd get maybe 1% this time around (don't know the basis for this). I've also read that Nader's overall percentage in 2000 was 2.7%.

So . . . what gives with the polls giving him 5-8%? Some of them seem to show that he's drawing votes from Kerry, as well. I just can't believe Nader's going to get anywhere near that percentage, but I can't explain these results, either.

Please speculate.

I'd also like to know if anyone's monitoring the Nader vote (real support, I mean) in swing states.

Thank you to anyone who can enlighten me.

[mobuto]

10. Nader support is extremely soft

Nader supporters are by far the least likely to show up at the polls, and those who do often decide at the last minute to support a Democrat. That's why Nader significantly underperformed the polls in 2000, even though he did manage to become a deciding factor in two states. Nader's support is all over the place because his support is so incredibly soft. Remember, these are people who honestly believe that there is no difference between the two major parties - they don't tend to pay much attention to things.

[fujiyama]

11. Those who believe...

that both parties are the same, probably are too cynical and uninformed to care anyways -- many learned their lesson that it does matter who's in power. We have to realize that Nader voters voted that way for many reasons. One friend of mine said (and I believe him) that he honestly didn't think so many people would be so dumb as to vote for Bush in the first place. He figured his vote really WOULDN'T matter. Well fortunately in my state it didn't, but anyways...I am glad to say he won't be voting for him again.

That's why, as much as I despise the Nadir, I find it completely pointless in having an ulcer over him -- but I'm confident he'll end up less than what he got in '00.

[Kathleen04]

12. Woo hoo!

Good signs..I'm optimistic about Ohio.

[MAlibdem]

14. looks like THE bellweather...mirroring national polls