Which state is more winnable: Florida or Ohio?

[fujiyama]

I'd say these are the two biggest red states up for grabs right now (granted the latter really didn't go red but that's another story). Kerry pretty much needs to win one of these two and all the other Gore states to win. It looks like AZ, MO, and NV are already showing Kerry ten points behind in those three states and while they'll probably tighten, they'll be tough -- Plus they don't have the advantage Ohio and Florida have(AZ is half the EVs of OH and a little more than just a third of FL).

So ultimately OH and FL will be the two major states. Kerry is ahead by two points in OH (not really much of a lead) and was up by five or so in FL but I haven't seen a more recent poll out of the state in a few weeks.

So which should Kerry focus on more?

[madmax]

1. Both

We should go for both of them.

[Thrill]

3. They better have

Dem official in every heavy democratic county on election day supervising

[jab105]

10. I'm here in the only northern democratic county...

and our people are already out in full force getting people registered...we are having a run-off for mayor, and it looks like the really awesome "real" liberal lady is going to win over the Lieberman-style corporate guy who had the big money backing...which was actually a surprise, yeah!!

Florida wants to go blue in 2004!!

[formernaderite]

17. I have fears about putting too much money in Florida after 2002...

...remember how Terry spent all the DNC money trying to oust brother Bush? Instead of trying to win back congressional and Senate seats, he decided to personalize the election mandate. Well we lost big time in Florida. Ohio is small enough and winnable with the right message and emphasis.

[IndianaGreen]

28. I agree, both

Ohio is ready to go on the Democratic column. My only concern about Florida is that Jeb Bush will keep people from voting as he did 4 years ago.

Then there is the issue of the Diebold voting machines.

[CalebHayes]

2. More people will think they voted for us in FL but the fact is ...

I don't think their votes will be counted. So Ohio may be our best chance.

[earthside]

4. Both for Kerry

Robert Novak on Inside Politics today said that his 'snapshot' of the situation in Florida and Ohio is that they would both go for Kerry.

Novak said that today Kerry would win the national election with 360 electoral votes.

[question everything]

20. I wondered whether someone mentioned this here

I could not believe my ears: Novak predicts a Kerry victory??

[Kolesar]

5. Have you figured the different electoral values after redistricting?

I am amazed that NV is going for Bush after he went back on his word and established a high-level nuclear waste dump there.

When you say OH and FL, the first thing that occurs to me is that they both have an elderly demographic, so Mr. Kerry should work on issues like the prescription drug bill fiasco.

[fujiyama]

6. Very true...

Of course AZ also has a high senior population. I think many seniors are pissed at this administration -- and the good thing is they vote!

[DaveSZ]

7. The Repumbumlicans are

running that stupid medicare ad every 10 minutes on every freaking channel.

It was paid for with taxpayer money to mislead seniors.

[DaveSZ]

9. Bush Flash about Florida:

http://www.bushflash.com/gta.html

[revcarol]

24. the Chamber of Commerce is also doing a glitzy lying

Medicare campaign ad for Bush. So the next time you hear a compaint about MoveOn ads.....

Myself, I think BOTH will go for Kerry IF thje votes are counted.

Florida Dems and indies are pissed because of 2000.
Ohio has lost over 300,000 manufacturing jobs since Bush grabbed power.BOTH.

[DaisyUCSB]

8. For a few reasons it's Florida

We "lost" Florida by no more than 537 votes, or .01 percent.

We lost Ohio by 165,000 votes, or 3 and a half percent.

Florida continues to be one of the leading states in population growth . Ohio is far more stagnant as is most of the midwest. One of the first things my father(a former professional strategist) told me is that when a population booms a populations politics shift. Clearly the reason the sunbelt has shifted much to the left in the past decade is migration and new attitudes in those states.

Florida is more socially liberal than Ohio. You might think being a southern state that's not the case, but most of the population is in non-dixie metros of Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.

Florida I suspect also has a larger military(particuarly navy) community than Ohio. It's a guess. But with Jacksonville and Panama city all the "Fort" towns. Most indications point to Kerry getting a higher percentage of military than Gore did.

You need to Factor in the hundred thousand Nader and jew-for-Buchannon voters. A majority of which are more than likely to be ABB

Finally and perhaps most importantly Florida's democratic community just might be the most determined/excited in the nation, BECAUSE of 2000. Particularly the minority community. Randi Rhodes has helped that somewhat in south Florida, and you've got to expect Stern fans in Orlando and soFLa are particularly likely to turn out for Kerry after having been cut off from Stern.

[fujiyama]

13. I was thinking the same thing...

I have to say we really didn't lose Florida -- we were cheated from it - and we had some shitty luck -- Butterfly ballots, foolish Nader voters, purged voters, roadblocks, etc etc.

Those things do worry me again, but I see the Nader factor being smaller, more Bush '00 voters voting dem than the other way around, more excitement among the base, no butterfly ballots...

Ultimately, I see a win of atleast 10,000+ votes, IF we get the turnout we had in '00...

Of course Jeb did win reelection there by a pretty big margin, but the dems didn't run a very good candidate (or from what I heard he didn't run a good campaign).

Our chances are looking good -- as always, turnout is key.

[Mel]

11. Ohio is one to watch I smell cheating!

check out this link
BBV - Action Needed in Ohio ASAP
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1296454

[Faygo Kid]

12. Ohio. Jeb Bush is governor of Florida. Anyone remember?

Just because Katharine Harris is no longer Secretary of State, doesn't mean they have given up rigging the election - and now they have experience.

[DaisyUCSB]

14. And Bob Taft is governor of Ohio. Is he not Bush loyal?

Are we forfeiting states with Governors we don't trust? All you have to know is what SPECIFICALLY went on and contributed to the confusion in Florida to realize it has zero chance of happening again. The butterfly ballots are gone. There can be no new voters added to the purge list and the list is unlikely to be used in as many counties as it was in 2000. Basically what went on most seriously was interference in a recount, and Kerry is much more likely to win Florida than Ohio, and therefor less likely to incur a recount in the first place in Florida than in Ohio.

[tedoll78]

15. If forced to choose, I'd say..

Ohio. The job losses make it too ripe. My only real worry is BBV..

[looking glass]

16. Ohio n/t

[NewJerseyDem]

18. Florida

The state has been trending toward the democratic party very heavily over the past 15 years or so. There is no reason to think that it won't continue this trend and move into a slightly leaning democratic state.

Ohio still leans to the republicans slightly. It should be competitive and should be targeted, especially due to the job loss. Ohio would probably be right after Florida and New Hampshire as the most red states to vote for Kerry. Maybe WV is up there as well.

[mobuto]

19. Yes

Ohio and Florida are both competitive and should be contested heavily. By own gut fealing is that Ohio is slightly more winnable, but wins are very possible in both places. New Hampshire is also winnable. West Virginia is also winnable. Arizona and Nevada are also winnable.

[Cuban_Liberal]

21. Ohio.

I am VERY leery of our chances in FL, given that the Bush junta is even more firmly entrenched there in 2004 than it was in 2000.

[maisey03]

22. Ohio...

I saw a poll a couple months ago that said more Ohioans would support a Democratic governor in 2006. There was about a ten point difference. If Betty Montgomery, a probable Rep. candidate ran, only 32% of Reps. said they'd support her. Taft, our current governor, is compared to Bush a lot with his spending and disregard of the economy. He is giving the Republican party a bad name. We used to be a pretty strong state, but now we're in the top three "exodus" states. It's crazy... We're not looking for a miracle cure, but Bush ignored the problem for 4 years, and didn't deliver the jobs he promised us in 2000. The climate looks pretty bad for him the southern area, and we're one of the most favorable places for Bush to win, so that's a good sign.


Florida's not hurting as badly economically, and they've got to be more concerned with Al Quaeda down there. Since Bush is seen as the "Great Protector," I think Kerry will be a hard sell in Florida. It's true that Cleveland, OH, which is very Democratic, is losing people like crazy and the (white Republican) suburbs of Dayton and Cinci are growing. However, I think esp. if the economy gets worse, people will start putting their conservative beliefs aside. We recently got a new Democratic mayor - it was said that the primary reason he won is because he vowed to make job creation a top priority. I see this as a very good sign. If Bush cannot get Southern Ohio, then he cannot get Ohio.

[cosmokramer]

23. OHIO. Ohio. OH. Ohio. Ohio.

HUGE democrat turnout in the primary, voters switching to the dems (we gained over 5,000 dems from the GOP and only lost 200 in just ONE county).

More importantly NO JEB LOYALISTS, NO KATHERINE HARRIS loyalists, No Jim Baker loyalists.

[Hippo_Tron]

25. Ohio, Cause Jebby owns Florida...

And most of the state government is Republican controlled.

[Padraig18]

26. Ohio.

If Jeb hasn't already got the plan set for stealing FL ready, he will have, by November...

[genius]

27. You're joking right? We've already lost both

Diebold has promised Ohio to Bush and they determine by what percentage he wins - not the voters. Florida's voting has been rigged for the Republicans for quite some time. Without VCIAA, we can forget about a Kerry presidency.

[fujiyama]

29. While I understand your concern...

I find it near impossible to win without one of those two states. They are crucial because they are the two largest (and closest) swing states that Bush won.

[DaveSZ]

30. Indeed

We almost cannot win in the Electoral College without picking off one or both of those states from Bush.

We can still beat Jeb and Diebold, but I think reforming the BBV machines is almost a lost cause with the meager amount of time we have left. It was my recommendation (I told Governor Dean this) that the Democratic Party get started early on preparing and handing out paper or absentee ballots to those people who will be subject to these Diebold BBV machines.

I also recommended that elderly people who don't even know how to use a computer be given paper or absentee ballots.

[maisey03]

32. Just wondering...

How likely do you think it is that something like this will happen? Do you think the Democrats will really let this go on? Ohio has a Republican governor, but I don't see Taft or Blackwell for that matter as smart enough to orchestrate something like this. I doubt the vote will be close as it was last time, especially in our big ones - Cleveland and Columbus. If their votes come out Republican, it won't fool anyone for very long.

[arewethereyet]

31. Ohio. Fla will be red.

[cosmokramer]

33. Here is a source for how Ohio can turn...

http://www.daytondailynews.com/localnews/content/localnews/daily/0328ohio.html

Specifically in my county, Montgomery County.

Note the article also talks about the strength of the Clark and Dean campaigns had here, and how Kerry is tapping that strength. This is why talk of Edwards helping with Ohio is completely ridiculous.

Kerry can win Ohio with the RIGHT person as a running mate (military/FP exp/diplomatic exp heavy moderate).