2025 - The Math is Wrong

[denem]

There will not be 4049 delegates seated at the Democratic Convention in 2008. Only 3682 will be on the floor if Michigan (157) and Florida (210)are excluded.

Although the Party rules state 2025 is the simple majority, as a practical matter, the contest will be over when either candidate gets around 1850 votes.

[tekisui]

1. I am pretty sure that 2025 is the number, after the sanctions.

2,208 is what would be required if FL and MI were recognized.

[Kittycat]

2. Yes - which is why those advocating for those seats for HRC keep ignoring

the fact that the number to reach will increase if those seats are allocated.

[Alexander]

3. She could get FL and MI and she'd still lose.

Obama's over 100 delegates ahead at this point. Florida and Michigan can't make up that kind of a deficit.

[Kittycat]

7. Oh, I completely agree.

I just think it's funny when they start the fuzzy math threads, including those - but keeping the number at 2025.

[HooptieWagon]

4. IIRC, 4049 total includes FL and MI

thus 2025 being needed to win in that scenerio. It only makes sense that if the total delegates are reduced by not seating Fl and MI, the amount needed to win is also reduced. I think the OP is correct in their analysis.

[CK_John]

5. Fl and MI were allocated 0 delegates, total allocated = 4049. 2025 to win. n/t

[HooptieWagon]

8. Yes, I stand corrected

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

And it appears (from the link) that the total delegates have been reduced by two - two Maine SDs have been disqualified for moving - so the new amount necessary to secure the nomination is 2024.

[denem]

6. OK - got it. Thamks.