Obama in Illinois

[Bluzmann57]

Illinois DUers, does Barak Obama have a chance over there? He seems to be ignoring "downstate", and that isn't a real great strategy. Chicago does indeed have the majority of the population and political clout, but I think it would be good for Obama to show he is going to serve all of the people of Illinois. This young man could be a rising star in the Democratic Party, but he has to handle this situation a little better imo.

[Zynx]

1. As far as I can tell, the race leans towards Obama.

The state Republican party is shattered and ineffective. That is our biggest edge.

[Cocoa]

5. and they chose a bad candidate

Ryan comes across as a valley girl. Obama should win in a blowout.

[Doomsayer13]

2. Obama has a lot of appeal

but he'll need to push hard downstate as well as in Chicago. Chicago will turn out for him, that's for sure, but in order to clinch it he'll need to win in the southern and western regions of Illinois. Right now he's the best positioned - his sweeping landslide victory has given him momentum and his opponent - Jack Ryan - doesn't seem like a tested and tried candidate. Ryan also may be too conservative for Illinois, a state that has a history of electing liberal Democrats like late senator Paul Simon and Carol Mosely Braun (whose defeat rests solely on the shoulders of her scandal ridden tenure as senator).

[markdd]

3. Isn't Ryan (repub) in trouble?

Something about a messy divorce that he's trying to seal the records on.

Check out http://www.archpundit.com/ He's a down state blogger.

[never cry wolf]

6. Ryan claims that the portions only deal with his son

However, I have heard that if half the rumors are true and it comes out Ryan is dead. Some of the rumors I have read is forcing his ex, actress Jeri Ryan into group sex and rape (sex forced against her will.)

Hell, if he was married to her and divorced he should be disqualified for stupidity.

[Zed]

4. He may need financial help

http://www.obamaforillinois.com/contribute.shtml">Contribute to the Obama campaign

I think he doesn't have as much cash as Ryan, making it difficult for him to go statewide. The Chicago machine was behind Dan Hynes, and I haven't heard if the support has swung over yet. (I just moved from Illinois and have been out of the loop on the campaign.)

[Nailzberg]

9. Money will be there for Obama

According to the Center for Responsible Politics

Jack Ryan (R)

Raised: $4,233,297
Spent: $3,870,144
Cash on hand: $360,652
Last Report: 2/25/2004
(and 3,000,000 of Ryan's money was from his personal fortune)

Barack Obama (D)

Raised: $4,025,274
Spent: $2,962,740
Cash on hand: $1,292,704
Last Report: 2/25/2004


And don't forget that Uncle Blair is now in Obama's corner.

[Zed]

13. More help on the way...

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_100/news/4953-1.html">CBC Boosts Obama

"The Congressional Black Caucus today will kick off an eight-month offensive to elect a black Senator, hosting its first major fundraiser and vowing a cadre of campaign volunteers for Illinois Democrat Barack Obama."

--clip--

“We see him becoming a new member of the CBC,” Cummings said. “We want to make sure he wins. We’ll be raising money, we’ll be going to Illinois for any purposes that he might want us to. We’ll be campaigning with everything we can.”

[AP]

20. DU'ers should put a few bucks into this campaign...

http://www.obamaforillinois.com/contribute.shtml

It will be money well spent.

This guy is the kind of guy we need in the Senate standing up for Demcoratic principles.

[TXDemGal]

36. Texan for Obama here

I contributed the day he won the IL primary.

[Donkeyboy75]

30. Yes, but Ryan's a multi-multi-millionaire

who will certainly dig deep into his own pockets.

[Nailzberg]

34. And he'll need to, his fundraising sucked.

[murielm99]

7. He is ignoring downstate and western Illinois.

There was an event in Rockford for him, sponsored by his supporters. He was not present. The same thing happened in the Quad Cities.

We would like to support him, but he needs to get out here. Some Dems are beginning to take this as an insult.

Maybe he does not have money, but he needs to start listening to the rest of the state! We have a good chance to take this seat if he gets off his butt.

[Nailzberg]

8. Obama will build a downstate organization for the general election.

His strategy for the primary was to run strong in Chicago and the collar counties, and it worked well. Hynes and Hull split much of the downstate vote early on. After the media killed Hull's campaign, he stayed in to keep Hynes from winning. Attacks from within Hynes camp toward Hull allowed Obama to rise above the fray, and prevented Hynes from attracting undecided voters, which were about 30% in the polls three weeks out. Obama basically took the entire undecided block in those last weeks, beating all six of his opponents combined.

For the general he obviously has to expand on his downstate presence, which is strong in Springfield, Decatur, Quincy, and the Metro East areas. He'll lose eastern IL, a GOP stronghold, but southern IL loves Paul Simon (most people I know in southern IL have a "I met Paul Simon at McDonalds" story), and the comparisons between Obama and Simon will really boost him up. The rest of the downstate regions are will probably be very close. Look for heavy downstate campaigning when the campaign comes out of hibernation in May. He'll be petting pigs at the DuQion state fair and eating corn on the cob in DeKalb. Blair Hull will be fly him around when needed to make sure he can hit more campaign stops downstate.

I'd also expect to see Barack start co-sponsoring some farm bills in the State House. He uses his legislative record quite well as a campaign tool.

In short, this is Obama's to lose, but he can't view it that way. He can lose easily by putting weight into the Jack Ryan=George Ryan argument and ignoring Jack's campaign. If he runs against George Ryan, he'll look like he's got nothing to offer for the future. If he runs against Jack, and continues his earlier strategy of running on his statehouse record, he'll defeat Ryan.

I also believe running an "elect a black senator" race would probably kill him. Really all most people care about is whether or not they are electing a good senator. Tiger Woods did not make the PGA Tour because he was bi-racial. He made it because he kicked everyone's ass in golf. Obama has the same attitude, and he is one of the stars of our state senate regardless of race. I know this isn't the focus of his campaign, but I've seen supporters of his and some media focus on his race rather than his record. And they could hurt him during the general election. Race is not important, results are, and Obama a record to be proud of.

[Walt Starr]

10. Ryan is the one who has no chance

I'd say it's like an 83% chance Obama wins it this year. Ryan has less than a 17% chance of winning.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. Obama 55%-Ryan 45%

[Cuban_Liberal]

12. That sounds about right.

Those commercials that Sheila Simon did making it clear that her father endorsed Obama prior to his death helped him a LOT with Independents, undecideds and 'yellow-dog' downstate Dems.

[Jack Horkheimer]

14. Obama has several advantages

#1 big primary win

#2 not part of the Chicago "machine" but will get huge Chicago vote.
--Republicans rely on getting the anti-machine vote in the suburbs to build a winning coalition, but Obama is popular in the collar counties and the Repugs can't attack him as the "machine" candidate. Obama could come out of metro Chicago with a massive vote advantage.

#3 Metro Chicago casts about 70-75% of the state's vote.

#4 His Repub opponent, an investment banker, doesn't know squat about farm issues either.

#5 The Simon family backing does count for something downstate.


Obama of course can and should build his coalition downstate. But he does have 7 months. I believe he'll be able to hit all the downstate counties by then.

[newyawker99]

37. Hi Jack Horkheimer!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Nailzberg]

15. Shamelessly putting Obama at the top of the message board.

:kick:

G0bama

[AngryAmish]

16. The race is Obama's to lose

Several reasons:

1. As stated above, the Repubs are in complete disarray.

2. The Chicago machine has no choice but to come out big. There will be a new US Attorney appointed after the election if Kerry wins. The Near North Insurance case, McPier (jointly run by state and Chicago)and the truck hiring cases are getting closer to Daley. He cannot afford not to have a new US Attorney who is more friendly than Fitzgerald. If Daley needs Kerry to win more city votes (including white ethnics) for Obama.

3. Ryan is not a downstate guy. The only trouble Obama can have is gun control (I do not know his position). Durbin gets away with gun control because he is a downstate guy.

4. Ryan is a political novice who will do something stupid along the line.

5. Call me stupid (I do) but I will give Ryan a break about the sealed files. There is a ring of truth that the files are sealed because his wife is an actress and has had stalkers. I do not think this is the hill we want to die on. Obama is winning - do not go negative until you are attacked.

Finally, in Illinois black politicians statewide poll better than they get in votes. There is usually 3 -8% gap in polls and actual votes.

Mr. Obama better get to every county fair and farm breakfast he can. That way he will win big and carry a lot of clout to Washington.

[Nailzberg]

17. Gun control and gay rights.

"The only trouble Obama can have is gun control (I do not know his position). Durbin gets away with gun control because he is a downstate guy."


As far as guns, it sounds like he is hedging.
His campaign's response to a St. Louis Post-Dispatch questionnaire:
"I have no problem with the responsible ownership of guns used by sportsmen, but we are facing an epidemic of gun violence in our country. I support background checks on all gun sales and prohibiting purchase of more than one gun per month."
He voted against SB2165, which allows for using a firearm for defense even if ownership is prohibited at a local level.
And he voted for SB2188, allowing retired police and military concealed carry permits.

Both passed.

With respects to GLBT issues, Barack's a lead sponsor of SB 2597 (formerly SB 101). But with most people in downstate are hurting bad for health care, education, and jobs, to be single issue voters this election year.

[AngryAmish]

18. Lack of gay rights support killed Poshard

Downstate REALLY came out for Poshard. But he killed himself at about this time for refusing to at least appear interested in gay rights. (And that funny-looking mustache)

Ryan could hurt him with the one gun per month issue. However, I think that nationally we have come to some sort of gun rights equilibrium. As long as Obama does not come across as some sort of fanatic for gun control, he should be ok.

I still worry about the race effect. It is real and cannot be ignored. That is why I think Obama needs to visit every rural county so he cannot be caricatured. Roland Burris always ran very hard downstate and had surprising support downstate. Mr. Obama is a great candidate - smart, telegenic and a real pro. Great family, too. He needs to get out and about to demystify himself.

[Nailzberg]

21. Poshard collapse was more than gay rights.

I refused to vote for him because he was pro-life. And I know that hurt with a lot of Chicagoland Dems.

I refused to vote for George Ryan because he is a puss-bucket of a person whose only redeemable quality was his work on the death penalty, which I applaud (credit where credit is due).

I registered no vote in the governor's race that year. I still voted for the other offices.

[Cuban_Liberal]

22. And look what it got us.

Four years of the most corrupt administration since before the Civil War, HUGE mountains of debt, etc. . The pro-choice Democrats saddled us with Ryan, even though Poshard made it crystal clear that his pro-life position was a personal one and that as governor, he would enforce Roe v. Wade, because it was the law of the land.

Glenn Poshard was one of the most honest, decent, pro-labor, pro- civil rights, pro- fiscal responsibility candidates our party ever nominated for governor, and the 'purist', single-issue voters beat him like a red-headed step-child. Our state (literally) owes a debt to you that our children may well have to pay.

Gee thanks, guys! :puke::grr::nuke::wtf:

[Nailzberg]

25. Poshard had a 56% record from the ACLU

Don't blame single issue voters. Poshard had a lot of problems with upstate democrats, and it goes beyond his stance on Roe.

I stand by my decision to vote for neither candidate in that race.

[Cuban_Liberal]

26. And I stand behind my observation.

He was my Congressman, and one of the most fundamentally decent and honest people to ever run for governor of this state. Look what all the non-voting Dems saddled us with, instead...

Happy now? :eyes:

[Nailzberg]

27. Blame Poshard for not appealing to the electorate.

He was my congressman, too, so I was very familiar with him.

Neither candidate was worth my vote. I looked at both candidate's legislative careers and could not vote for someone who voted to adopt an English only federal policy, to keep unfair sentencing disparities between crack and powdered cocaine, to force parental consent for abortion, and opposed all measures in gun-control.

I disagreed with Poshard's congressional record, so it didn't matter to me if he was a "fundamentally decent" person.

He was only nominated with 32% of the primary vote. When you win in a plurality, you better adjust you strategy for the general, or you're toast. Poshard didn't do that. If he couldn't mobilize his base of support and win over those dems that voted for someone else in the primary, that's his own problem.

I will give him one thing, though. Poshard's negative campaigning on behalf of Dan Hynes strengthened Obama's support with Dems sick of personal attacks.

[davsand]

38. Poshard did not have strong support from selected groups.

It wasn't any ONE issue, IMO, it was the whole package. Poshard is NOT a bad guy--if you talk to him he's really quite personable. However, here in Champaign County, you can SEE where support dropped off for Poshard next to the rest of the ticket.

I was looking at those numbers on a precinct by precinct basis for some other race after the fact, and it was literally a consistent drop off when it came to the Poshard race. I was tracking Dem performance across the races and you could SEE it.

Something else you need to consider is that primary that put Poshard in the Gov races was kind of an odd one. Poshard had labor support, Burris had no real campaign to speak of but pulled well with minorities and Schmidt was one of the worst stump speakers I've ever seen in my life, but he pulled well with progressives.

Anyhow, the point I'm making on that is that the electorate was really carved up in that race--more then in most others. We actually had Dem women picketing Poshard when he was in Champaign county--THAT is how angry they were about him. (Schmidt carried Champaign County--but we are very liberal compared to the rest of downstate, and should be no shock to anyone.) I found out while calling for Lisa Madigan that Poshard is just beloved by folks in some of the downstate counties, however.

Like I said, I like the man fine to talk to--but he was just not the ideal candidate at the time. I'm not sure who really would have been ideal, to be honest, but the Dems were badly fractured over that race.

Obama is not in that same situation, and he's gonna be fine. He's gonna draw from all the groups--across the boards. His lifetime record with labor votes is excellent--over 90% I think-and even if labor backed Hynes in the Primary, they WILL be there for Obama.

Obama has generated excitement in several of our minority precincts--areas that usually just don't turn out were THERE for him in this primary--and he's the darling of the Urbana "sprouts and tofu crowd" (roughly comparable with the North Shore liberals in Chicago.)

Obama is not any place close to being where Poshard was at in his race.

Laura

Oh--and did I remember to add that Obama has his excellent legislative history from a time when the Dems did NOT control the Senate? THAT is what people need to think about!

[Donkeyboy75]

31. Don't forget, his opponent has the name "Ryan"

which, even though there is no relation, is a terrible name to have in this state right now.

[Nailzberg]

32. Don't count on a boost from the name game.

I've said this on other threads when people bring it up.

1. Jack Ryan can correct upon the mistakes Jim Ryan made in 2002 in not distinguishing himself from George Ryan.

2. If we are counting on a boost from uneducated voters listening to names, keep in mind that our guy's name rhymes with Iraq Osama.


We can't count on Ryan's name to play into this at all. He's already done an great job of blitzing the media with his picture and name, and I think the name won't hurt him like it hurt Jim Ryan.
Obama kills Ryan on issues. Play up his record in the State House, talk about experience and integrity, and he'll win. But underestimating Ryan's chances due to his name would be a big mistake.

[Donkeyboy75]

33. I'm not "counting on it."

But it's going to certainly cost him a few votes from pedestrian voters who haven't taken the time. In some peoples' minds, Ryan = bad. There was polling data on this for Jim Ryan, and I'm sure it hasn't died off completely yet.

[Nailzberg]

35. I didn't mean you, I mean Dems voters as a whole.

DUers are educated voters. And we are active. We don't take anything for granted and we vote regardless.

I'm just fed up with the crap I'm hearing on the ground here downstate. Half the dems I talk to think this is wrapped up, and I don't want them to stay home on election day because of that thought process.


I apologize if you thought I was sparring with you on this.

[AP]

19. Obama is generating some excitement...he's creating a buzz.

I've talked to some people who are really excited to be working for him and who are really going to be putting a huge effort into getting him elected.

They think he's the real deal.

[Ysabel]

23. my parents in urbana/champaign...

like obama - my aunt and my brother and all their dem friends too - i think he'll win...

[Cuban_Liberal]

24. We live close to there.

He did quite well here; he split the vote with Hynes about 40/40, with the remainedr being spread among Hull and everyone else. :)

[Algorem]

28. He's on Tavis Smiley on PBS now.

[Donkeyboy75]

29. I'm in Chicago, and from what I heard,

He concentrated on Chicago, and a bit in Springfield to shore up the primary. He will campaign statewide, but I think he's delaying a bit, as he will be terribly outspent (big surprise) by the Republican candidate.