Clinton LEADS in Tues primary states

[amborin]

Clinton Leads Obama in Ohio, Even in Texas, Poll Says Nadine Elsibai
Sun Mar 2, 11:06 AM ET

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a close battle for support among likely Texas primary voters, while Clinton leads Obama in Ohio, an American Research Group Inc. poll shows.

Clinton, a New York senator, and Obama, an Illinois senator, are tied with 47 percent support each among Texas voters, the poll conducted Feb. 29-March 1 found. A similar poll taken Feb. 27-28 had Obama leading 51-44 percent.

In Ohio, Clinton is ahead 51-44 percent among the state's likely Democratic primary voters. That's little changed from the 50-45 percent advantage she had in an earlier February poll. Four percent of voters in both Texas and Ohio remain undecided, the new poll found.

[skipos]

1. Not quite the 25%+ she needs

but enough to make her follow in Huckabee's footsteps.

[Skip Intro]

2. Not quite the 25% she needs for what?

They're both 600+ delegates short.

She needs 25% for what?

[skipos]

12. Too stop the ass whupping she has been taking for the last 11 contests

I am guessing that you didn't major in math (miracles perhaps?), so here is the deal. She is down 100+ pledged delegates right now. At some point she needs MASSIVE wins to overcome that. I'll assume that you, like Mike Huckabee, like the idea of taking this all the way to the convention even if Hillary is unable to overcome Obama's lead in the pledged delegates. I assume you think the superdelegates are going to swoop in and save the day for strugglin' Hil.

It. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

She can either make herself competitive with big wins in TX or OH, or she can continue to trail Obama like she has since Iowa. If it is the later, she can do the Huckabee or bow out but it won't matter since she won't be the nominee either way.

[Skip Intro]

14. God, I love how insulting some of you Obamabots are.

Is that the "CHANGE" or the "HOPE" or the "UNITY" talking there.

redhanded


You're guessing I didn't major in math? :rofl:

Talk to me when one of them have the required number of delegates to win, ok?



What a maroon.

[SKKY]

35. Here you go skippo. Some light reading so you'll at least be informed...

It highlights what Clinton needs to do from here on out..

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080220/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_delegate_deficit

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=213&sid=1348722

To sum this all up, the best shot Clinton has is to stem the tide just enough to make it to the convention with neither candidate having enough delegates. Beyond that, it's anyones guess.

[Blondiegrrl]

3. Read it again. She's not leading in Texas.

They're tied. Other polls put Obama slightly ahead in Texas.

My prediction for Tuesday is Obama/Texas and Clinton/Ohio, both by small margins.

[Zhade]

26. Another Clinton supporter lied. What a shock!

A lot of them are as unethical as she is.

[amborin]

4. Clinton's going to win on Tuesday!!!!

[texas_indy]

7. .....not in Texas. Texas is Obama country! (nt)

[anamandujano]

11. just like it's Bush country

:eyes:

[CatnHat]

15. . . .not in TX

Texas is Clinton Country!!!

[texas_indy]

17. Bookmark this page. We'll see that Obama will win majority of popular vote and delegates

in Texas. I don't know about the others, but Texas is Obama country!

Don't worry, I don't plan to gloat when he does win since I know you support HRC as much as I support O-man.

Obama wins Texas in 2 days!! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[Zhade]

29. That's okay. I'll gloat double for you.

Some of these arrogant Clinton-is-owed-the-nom assholes DESERVE a good gloat.

[emilyg]

32. And you deserve a good kick in your ass

[Horse with no Name]

33. Not in the part of Texas I live in

Thank God.

[cali]

34. bzzzzt. wrong. Obama will win in TX

lose by a very small margin in OH and RI, and beat her by 30 pts in VT. Get used to it. It's almost over. Bye bye hill.

[grantcart]

5. Small lead wont help

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080302/NEWS01/303020032

As much as Hillary Clinton wants to win Ohio on Tuesday, a two-percentage point win won’t do her much good.

Under the complex mathematical formula the Ohio Democratic Party will use to divvy up the 141 delegates at stake in the Ohio primary, a candidate has to win big –really big – to win the lion’s share of the delegates.

And not all areas of the state are created equal. Southwest Ohio’s congressional districts can provide candidates only four delegates each; the more Democratic-rich congressional districts in Northeast Ohio get more.


In districts with four delegates each, a candidate could win 60 percent of the vote and split those delegates right down the middle with the candidate who had only 40 percent.

“It’s a very complex system, and very hard to understand,” said John C. Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron. “But the bottom line of it is that if you are going to win a lot of delegates, you’d better win big.”

Obama and Clinton are competing on two levels – statewide and at the congressional district level. The 18 congressional districts have 92 delegates to be chosen, while another 49 delegates will be chosen at large

[grantcart]

8. Ohio Dem voters split but agree: Obama will be nominee

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/03/02/POLL02.ART_ART_03-02-08_A1_599GNRO.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

So Tuesday's election likely comes down to how many independent voters decide to grab a Democratic ballot and vote for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner's prediction of a record 52 percent turnout means that well more than a quarter of Ohio's 5 million-plus nonpartisan voters will vote.

But there's one undeniable fact among Democrats: They overwhelmingly think that Obama will win the November election, regardless of whom they support in the primary. Even nearly a third of Clinton supporters in the poll expect Obama to be the next president.

[adoraz]

6. plus, its ARG.

[SoxFan]

10. Citing ARG?

[grantcart]

9. Ohio polls Tied

In Ohio, the two Democrats have drawn dead-even to the tenth of a percent (44.8% each), as Clinton continued to show strength in northern Ohio outside Cleveland, but trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers. Clinton leads in the more sparsely-populated, less affluent southern Ohio region. She also retains a small lead among Catholics, an important voting bloc in this Rust Belt state


http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1458

[George_Bonanza]

13. Virtual dead heats in OH and TX = Clinton's loss

If Clinton can't destroy Obama in OH and TX, there's no possible way she can catch up in delegates. Pennsylvania isn't going to make that much of a difference. Therefore, it'll have to come down to superdelegates.

On one hand, you'll have Obama, with more pledged delegates, more votes, and more states won.

On the other hand, you'll have Clinton, with fewer pledged delegates, fewer votes, and fewer states won. Throw in Florida if you want, doesn't change a thing. Michigan is way too convoluted (Hillary vs. nobody) to try and make sense of.

In a situation like that, Hillary has no case to make. She's made a strong showing, but Obama has been stronger. And superdelegates have slowly begun to gravitate towards Obama. None have defected from Obama to Clinton.

[jackson_dem]

16. Land doesn't vote Obamabots and Bushbots, people do

The "more states won" argument trotted out by the rethugs in 2000 and 2004 and now "Obamites" is a joke. Land doesn't vote. People do.

Axlwerod couldn't have said it better himself. Here is the case she could make:

She will have won basically the same number of pledged delegates, won more Democratic votes (are we going to let ringers select our nominee?), and won most of the vital general election states including most of the big states. Let's say she ends with wins in California (1), Texas (2), New York (3), Florida (4), Pennsylvania (6), Ohio (7), Michigan (8), North Carolina (10), and New Jersey (11). She has a strong case for herself that she won the big swing states that will decide the election and won where Democrats can compete since we know places like Idaho and Utah will go rethug in the general. More important than all of this will be momentum. If she ends this with a string of wins that will give her an even stronger case at the convention.

Obama has only himself to blame for taking himself off the ballot in Michigan to pander to Iowa and New Hampshire. he had been on the ballot he would have lost anyway with 35% (Edwards would have taken 12%).

The defections can reverse if the momentum changes, especially if Obama's trial heat card disappears now that the rethugs are attacking him a bit. He only has a slim 4-5 advantage over Hill in that category and that isn't worth the paper it is written on. If the rethugs continue the roles may be reversed in June.

The bottom line is a strong case can be made that Hillary would be the stronger nominee and this is not over by any means. If it were over Obamites wouldn't have to repeat that to themselves over and over again.

[anigbrowl]

19. Keep on believing that. We'll talk on Wednesday.

[BenDavid]

18. Hey, it tis all about the MO. That is what you obambots have

said that if obama keeps winning and he will have the MO and HRC will not win the nomination. Well, a funny thing happened on the way to his accepting the crown, he got his ass beat and now the MSM will have to report that obama has no MO, and HRC regains the MO.....

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Tell me more, Mr. Future.

[Hardrada]

21. Polls are meaningless at this point.

[jlake]

22. K&R ~ Looking good for Hillary!

[Tom Joad]

23. mmmm, "leads" in the headline, "tied" in the actual results of the poll

nice try.

[RememberWellstone]

24. A win is a win

right now, we shall see if Obammy can hold up to the pressure if he gets a string of losses.

[Zhade]

25. See ya Tuesday when she loses!

NT!

[cooolandrew]

27. The factor not noted here is Barack's momentum increases daily.

[Johnny__Motown]

28. Likely voters,,,,, many Unlikely voters are voting this time around. You need to adjust projections

to include them.

[grantcart]

30. 644

[mattclearing]

31. Ohio is an open primary, so "likely Democratic primary voters" isn't a good measure. n/t

[Political Heretic]

36. This is all the needs to be said.

Averaged trend data - only thing that matters.



And




Obama up in texas and continues - without deviation - to close gap in Ohio. Now down to six points.


I continue to predict Obama +6 in Texas and Clinton +1 in Ohio.

[saltpoint]

37. We'll have to see how voters vote.

[rodeodance]

38. its neck n neck---Tues will be interesting now doubt