Woohoo: Obama surging to the lead in Ohio and Texas (Zogby)

[Perky]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1460

Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle Poll: Too Close To Call! Obama Barely Overtakes Clinton in Ohio and Retains Small Edge in Texas

Republican McCain remains well ahead of Huckabee, but still faces some intra-party opposition


UTICA, New York – The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio remain too close to call between Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with momentum sloshing back and forth, a new Zogby International poll for Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows. As voters in these two big states prepare to wrap up their voting tomorrow, neither candidate has been able to break away from the other.


The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the party’s proportional delegate apportionment scheme.

Texas - Democrats
2-29/3-2
2-28/3-1
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
44%
43%
43%
42%

Obama
47%
47%
45%
48%

Gravel
2%
1%
<1%
<1%

Someone else
1%
2%
3%
3%

Not sure
6%
7%
8%
7%




The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, moving two steps closer to sealing the GOP nomination, as he continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.



Ohio - Democrats
2-29/3-2
2-28/3-1
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
45%
47%
45%
44%

Obama
47%
46%
45%
42%

Gravel
1%
1%
1%
1%

Someone else
2%
1%
3%
5%

Not sure
6%
5%
6%
9%




In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.


Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday’s polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.


In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.


Obama continues to lead among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton remains strongest among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.

[theboss]

1. One has to assume that Obama is going to close strong

Since NH, he has consisetently out-performed the polls and he typically wins over voters who wait to make their decisions. I still think Hillary will ultimately win Ohio, but I predict it will be within 3 points.

Texas, I think, is Obama's to lose now.

[NightWatcher]

2. shh, dont tell them that Obama under polls. I wanna wait til tomorrow night to see it

[Perky]

8. I think that is right. The models do not effectively measure enthusiasm

The models really shoulb be based on exit poll data rather than four year old normative behavior.

[Zachstar]

3. Don't trust ANY KIND OF POLL this year!

DO NOT get lazy about this. Assume Clinton has HUGE LEADS and the need to call and go door to door and support Obama is more than EVER!

It is time to finish this! May Obama win and Clinton Exit!

IT'S GOBAMA TIME!!

[BigAnth]

6. The polls are encouraging but

we need to nail this thing tomorrow! Lots of people are working hard to get this done. Keep up the good work.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Terrible weather there tomorrow...1-2 inches of rain

The candidate with the most motivated voters will win. If the race is as tight as the polls indicate, I like Obama's chances.

[0007]

17. It will be tighter than a dog.

Here in MIdland this morning it is very cold with an over cast of a dark gray sky. The man is calling for rain and more cold weather.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. ROTFLMAO At Relying On Zo(m)by

Pollster John Zogby: “In California, we have Obama polling into a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there. What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters.





http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1446

[Perky]

11. I do not dispute the recent history....But I a=would think they have tha ability to

fix the errors in the model

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Here's Zo(m) by's Track Record

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

He's the Joe Isuzu and Mr. Haney of polling

[workinclasszero]

7. Here comes the Obama surge!!

But don't take anything for granted! GOTV!:bounce:

[Independent-Voter]

9. I still think the older, low educated white women of Ohio will pull this one out for HRC

Going to be damn close though.

[Perky]

14. I will be honest. That clearly is where Hillary's strength remains

but it lacks sufficient coalition stenght given her troubling gender gap with maile voters.

[beachmom]

10. I thought Zogby now does not have a good reputation for accuracy.

I just don't trust this poll, and believe the polls that show Clinton will win Ohio, and Texas is very close.

[Perky]

12. The results Zogby has are not out of line with other polls both are inside MOE

That tells me his has tighted up the model a bit more. He certainly was whacked in California

[my3boyz]

13. Never trust Zogby! Remember CA! nt

[Perky]

15. See Post #12