TV ads score big in Bush turnaround

[papau]

(Bush spent more than $20 million on the ads since 3/4, Kerry response has cost more than $2 million, and Media Fund has spent more than $5 million).

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&ncid=716&e=21&u=/usatoday/20040330/ts_usatoday/tvadsscorebiginbushturnaround

TV ads score big in Bush turnaround

By Susan Page, USA TODAY

A week of hearings on Capitol Hill and criticism from a former counterterrorism aide have eroded President Bush's poll standing on fighting terrorism. But that's nothing compared to the damage that Bush's campaign ads may have done to Democratic candidate John Kerry.


A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads. Those ads say Bush has provided "steady leadership in times of change" while portraying Kerry as a tax-hiking, flip-flopping liberal.


The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%. Now Bush leads Kerry in them by six points, 51% to 45%.


In contrast, there has been much less volatility in states where the ads haven't aired. Kerry held a four-point lead in them in February; Bush holds a two-point lead now.<snip>

One more finding: TV ads are powerful. A majority echoed the Bush ads' themes about the Massachusetts senator: 57% say Kerry has changed positions for political reasons, and 58% say their federal taxes will go up if he's elected. And the percentage who say he's "too liberal" has jumped from 29% in February to 41% now.

[still_one]

1. If people are that STUPID to belive those ads

then bush is going to win

[Gasolinedream]

2. I reallly really hate....

these assholes!!!!! I have to declare that almost everyday to vent or I will burst!!

There's a long way to go until November. I can't beleive people want these morons running our country and telling us what to do and say.

[dennis4868]

3. You know....

I am reading a book on Hitler. I am not saying Bush is a Hitler, although they do have alot in common. The one area where they are incredibly similar is their ability to fool their people into believing anything they say. Hitler told his people the jews are bad and the german believed it and never questioned him. Bush tells his people that Saddam was involved in 911 and his people blindly go along with it. Therefore, it is no suprise that Bush ads are working. The people of this country and the so-called "liberal" media believe everything Bush and his thugs say....and they do not question it.

[WI_DEM]

4. we knew that Bush would be doing this

and that 41% saying Kerry is "too liberal" is ominous. That is the problem with nominating a congressional figure with years of voting records--you can find some vote from years ago and still use it against him.

[lancdem]

7. You're right about the voting record

It's a long way to November, and these polls will fluctuate. In 1992 at this time, Bill Clinton's negatives were very high. Kerry is actually in better shape poll-wise than Clinton was in '92 and Reagan in '80.

[ArkDem]

13. But unfortunately, Ross Perot is not running

this year. Ralph Nader is.

[shivaji]

22. That's right ....scumbag Nader is running in 2004 and polls at 4%

[mzmolly]

5. And people say the media DOESN'T influence our decisions?

*piff*

[flpoljunkie]

8. The failure of the media to do their jobs is what elected Dubya in 2000...

The media still refuses to question the Bush's campaign totally misleading ads, particularly the one about JK raising taxes over 350 times.

They just blithely let the RNC repeat these ridiculous distortions without once making any attempt to examine the accuracy of their claims.

We will have to, therefore, bombard them with emails and phone calls and remind them that they must do their jobs, and not serve as an adjunct to the Bush campaign by regurgitating whatever RNC smears and talking points that spew from their fax machines--without even the most cursory examination.

[mzmolly]

14. I agree. But the only thing the media cares about is ratings.

Their *job* is to get the best ratings.

Howard Dean commented that network news has become *entertainment* and he is right.

I think we need some regulation on the media so that they are accountable for accuracy and fairness when it comes to elections. Seems the tit show at the superbowl was a huge blowout because of the many letters they received? They will now be fining entertainers for lewd conduct.

Might I suggest fining our media/news outlets for inaccurate sloppy journalism and comments?

I think your right about calls and letters, who do we write and when? Should we organize a pre-emptive strike on the media demanding fair accurate reporting? Should we campaign with the FCC?

[flpoljunkie]

16. Forget the FCC, they are an RNC subsidiary. Here is FAIR's media list...

Let's demand they do their jobs!

http://www.fair.org/media-contact-list.html

[mzmolly]

18. True! FCC equals Freepers Controlling Censorship

:P

Thanks for the contact list. :)

[lancdem]

6. I'm not saying this poll is absolutely wrong

but no other poll has Bush's approval at 50 percent or above, and CNN has it at 53 percent??? The ads have made a difference, no doubt, but I'm dubious about his approval rating in this poll.

[Catfight]

9. If people are so easily persuaded, why do they bother to vote?

Marketers love people like this, Marilyn Manson was right, scare people into thinking they won't be cool unless they vote right, smell right, look right...whatever...stupid is as stupid does.

[Avalux]

10. I'm disheartened

How can someone watch a 60 second ad and believe it's true?? The people of this country deserve what they get if they are swayed by propoganda and the chimp is given 4 more years. People are so damn stupid and it seems there's nothing to be done about it.

[GreenPartyVoter]

11. Wish we had mandatory clean elections in every state

and this is one reason why.

[elperromagico]

12. I wish we had mandatory crack testing prior to elections.

We'd win in a landslide once Bush lost the crackhead vote.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Those Numbers Aren't Even True

There is no way for those numbers to have taken hold in this way. The sample are done incredibly poorly for these things as it is, and on top of that, i'm expected to believe that a stupid TV ad reversed the opinions of 40% of the electorate. Come on!

Susan Page is good writer, but she relied on some very bad analysis and doesn't question the results much in that piece.

Such a shift would be unprecedented in political statistics, by about an order of magnitude. Gary Hart's slide wasn't that profound when they had PICTURES OF HIM on the boat with his squeeze.

Let me say, from a statistical point of view, that there is, at best, a 0.001% chance that these numbers are true. If they are, this is a cataclysmic event in politics. So far outside of any prediction range as to be considered impossible.

If you folks want to believe these results, with a 1 in 100,000 chance of being right, have at it. Not me, though.
The Professor

[Thrill]

17. Kerry and Crew haven't been fighting

back. You always see a Chimp Ad. Never see a Kerry one.

[Snivi Yllom]

24. unfortunately this is the time when candidates get 'defined'.

[samsingh]

20. good point

how could tv ads change the mind of 40% of the electorate when the population is so divided.

something stinks about all the results and the attempts to manipulate us.

i think the shrub gang and the whore media are trying to make Democrats give up without a fight.

[59millionmorons]

19. Adults

This poll is of adults only, 54% of those polled wont even vote.

[shivaji]

21. I for one as opposed to my DU friends have never underestimated

Bush & Karl Rove. Ann Richards of Texas made the mistake of underestimating Bush and got her head handed to her. Never
underestimate your enemies, thinking they are dumb, chimpy,
dimwitted or what have you. Instead study their history and their methods
in order to defeat them.

[Snivi Yllom]

23. wait till there is non stop Condi Rice coverage. Free advertising for her

soundbytes.