New Poll: Bush Up +6 Over Kerry In Pennsylvania (Bush: 46, Kerry: 40)

[TheStateChief]

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1080730806295602.xml

President Bush's campaign roll-out dislodged a few supporters from Democratic rival Sen. John Kerry in Pennsylvania, and Sen. Arlen Specter's campaign is holding on "against a fierce challenge" in the Republican primary, a new Keystone Poll finds.

Last month, a survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research showed Bush trailing the Massachusetts senator, 47 percent to 46 percent.

The new poll, sponsored by The Patriot-News, WGAL-TV and other media organizations, shows Bush with what poll director G. Terry Madonna termed "a narrow lead," 46 percent to 40 percent.

"It shows that Bush had a better campaign month than Kerry," Madonna said. "But this race is still young and still close."

[ramapo]

1. So what

I'll say it again, these polls are a meaningless diversion, a waste of time and energy.

[West Coast Democrat]

4. For certain people, posting any "Bush ahead" polls....

is a hobby. I've noticed a pattern.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

2. Are we doomed?

to another 4 years of shrub, yuck! I feel sick again!:hurts:

[phillybri]

3. I don't buy that for a second...

BS

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. This has been happening in other states as well

Kerry is getting whacked with negative TV ads and they are taking a toll on his numbers.

[LSK]

17. Kerry needs to fight back

Bush is sending out a Blitzkreig of negative ads which are starting to "define" Kerry.

Kerry needs to have his own blitzkreig of ads and he has to have people on TV ALL THE TIME refuting ANYTHING Bush says.

Come on Kerry, fight back!

[Snivi Yllom]

19. ads work no question

[samsingh]

5. polls are fun - maybe - but they will bounce around for some time.

historical patterns show shifts of 15 points in a few days.

[mikey_1962]

7. Means nothing until Labor Day...relax

[sandnsea]

8. Nader factor

Many of us said the day he announced that this is what was going to happen. Nader's numbers wouldn't be reported, Bush would take the lead and everybody in the country would think that Bush has way more support than he really has. It's the perception Nader's entrance into the race makes in the polls, not Nader actually running, that matters. But hey, what did we know.

[59millionmorons]

9. Only 530 people polled

Specter spokesman Chris Nicholas said the poll interviewed too few Republicans to be credible. He added, "after $2 million of negative ads from Pat Toomey and his allies, Toomey is still below 30 percent," in the survey of registered Republican voters.

Poll done by Franklin and Marshall college in the Kentucky part of PA. Kerry wins PA by 250 thousand book on it.

[mobuto]

10. Note that Bush's numbers are unchanged

Last month, Bush was polling 46%, he's still polling 46%.

That's not too impressive for an incumbant. He's been running Kerry attack ads 24/7 in PA, so its only natural that Kerry's ratings will fall. If Kerry had the money to respond, he would and his standing would rise. So contribute.

http://contribute.johnkerry.com

[59millionmorons]

11. PA

I live in PA and the only ads we get are from moveon.org. I have seen no Kerry ads. But I am not concerned Kerry will win PA by 250 thousand.

[LSK]

16. Ralph NAder

Nader took Kerrys votes. He has to go away.

[Penndems]

12. Ah, the Harrisburg Patriot News

Also know as the Harrisburg edition of The Washington Times. ;)

[Bombtrack]

13. Media polls are by a rule inferior to professional polling firms

And the smaller the paper or news affiliate the more unreliable the poll. So I'd say while Patriot-News, WGAL-TV could be reflecting an acurate situation, it's far more likely that the last couple of polls were closer.

I'd put PA as a toss-up though, unfortunatly, which is worse than the slight lean for dems we had anticipated

[DaveSZ]

14. Why doesn't Kerry get his ass to Pennsylvania?

He needs to campaign there. :(

[rumguy]

15. Kerry has to be close to losing before he can win

Unfortunetaly, that seems to be Kerry's way...in most of his important races he was behind and pulled it out at the end.

He's a stong closer.

[RummyTheDummy]

20. This isn't a senate race

He banks on that strategy and he loses. Period.

[Zynx]

18. Bush's support did not increase. Kerry's just dropped.

[cap]

21. there is no kerry organization in PA

the GOP has a massive GOTV organization. The pro-lifers are out in mass. Guys, we better get off the Internet and out working for Kerry.

[cap]

22. this paper is out of harrisburg -- Republican stronghold

hmmmmmm.

[fujiyama]

23. Where was Gore at this point in PA?

I really don't see how many that voted for Gore will vote for Bush this time.

Either way, Kerry needs to work harder in PA.

[jsw_81]

24. It's too early for either side to get excited about these silly polls

Four years ago, Bush had a giant lead over Gore. Remember that, everyone? Remember how everyone was joking about how "nobody liked Gore" and how his campaign was such a disaster? But in the end, Gore beat Bush by well over 500,000 votes.

[calimary]

25. Even so, Kerry could probably use more donations...