January Surprise

[jpgpenn]

The January Surprise In New Hampshire
by Rob
Thu Jan 1st, 2004 at 17:56:07 UTC

Sam Youngman of PoliticsNH has a roundup of New Hampshire political analaysts and pundits who speculate on some of the things that could happen in January in New Hampshire. Since falling back from his peak at 45%, Dean has remained in the 37% range with most of the movement being between Kerry and Clark on who will finish second and third.

A Gephardt win in Iowa could change his numbers dramatically as it did in 1988 when he jumped 8 points which appears to be his only chance at emerging in New Hampshire. Political science professor Dante Scala speculates on what will be the jumping ship factor in the final days. Liberals and progressives could abandon Dean, Edwards and Lieberman supporters could give up and move to another candidate, supporters of Kerry's campaign could jump ship as well if his numbers continue to fall.

http://rob.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/1/17567/96199


This seems to be the message that we hear more and more everyday.

[Renew Deal]

1. Are you saying

that this is a Kerry, Clark, Gep matchup in NH in the end?

[jpgpenn]

3. well, what i'm saying

is, after coming across this piece many have been talking about Dean slipping in the polls, Clark rising, and many jumping ship.

[Renew Deal]

5. That's what I thought

and I agree with that article in principle. There will be a lot of movement this month. Have you seen the article about the Cell phone caucus. ABD might happen in Iowa.

[jpgpenn]

6. no i haven't

please post. ty

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. We're all jumping ship! ROTFLMAO

Roll on the floor laughing my ass off!

[madfloridian]

2. Everyone, read the other posts at the site!

That was a faulty post you just quoted in many ways.
http://rob.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/1/17567/96199

Some snips:
SNIP..."I know you are rabidly pro-Clark, Rob, but the misuse of statistical data isn't going to help your cause. The 45% was from the Last SUSA poll taken post-Gore and post-Saddam. The 37% is from the ARG daily tracking poll. The methodologies and questions are different.
All you have is two polls that show Dean with a commanding lead. You can't compare them and conclude Dean is "falling back".

SNIP..."The linked article says the Prof speculates these liberals and progressives could go to CMB or Kucinich (Rob, you should have included that part of the Profs comments in your diary entry). That won't happen, though they could go elsewhere..."

Looks like the poster did not quote the linked article correctly.
:shrug:

[jpgpenn]

4. what you mean

I didn't post it correctly? It was a stand alone comment peice on its own page. Heck it's not my site. I posted the page that reflects my subject heading.


edit: text fix

[madfloridian]

7. The poster at dailykos was the one I referred to.

Scroll down at the site. I was referring to the person who posted it.

[maddezmom]

8. your post is fine :)

:eyes:

There are a lot of other articles on that site, you just didn't happen to post them.

[quaker bill]

9. I expect that a Dean win in Iowa

will have the same effect on his numbers. That followed by the win in New Hampshire will likely have a similar effect on S. Carolina, and so on.

[jpgpenn]

10. I don't agree ..

with your future prediction. I see Dean's numbers falling because many are now finally getting the info that all of the major media tried to hide away.

As is shown in another post here , Dean has an ad out saying he was the ONLY candidate opposing the war. It's LIES like this that will finally put everything in perspective for those that don't follow politics like all of us here.

[Padraig18]

17. The ad says "only MAJOR candidate"...

... if you read the pamphlet.

[Cheswick2.0]

11. he thinks liberals and progressives will abandon Dean for Gephardt?

What is this guy smoking? Or am I reading his analysis wrong?

[BrewCrew]

12. i could see that

If liberal/progressive Dean supporters in NH for some reason decide to jump ship. And I don't forsee that happpening. I could see them support Gephardt. Besides the War, the guy is pretty progressive.

He's fought against trade treaties that lead to dangerous globalization, he's a strong supporter/funder for social programs like medicare, medicaid, social security, welfare (even voted against the 96 welfare reform bill), has proposed a smart/bold health care plan that will cover both the insured and uninsured...so it can never be taken away. The guy battled Newt Gingrich tooth and nail while he has Speaker. Many Republicans even blame Gephardt and is pragmatic approach for the fall of Newt, because he was the perfect contrast. I could see this. Gephardt is a lot better than folks think!!!

[msanger]

13. Beside the war - is a pretty big beside

I liked Gephardt before he roled over for bush. And if he hadn't rolled over, I'd probably like him just fine. But he did role over. And to me at least, that tells the story.

still, it's anybody but bush for me.

[dansolo]

18. He didn't just roll over for Bush

He and Joe Lieberman sabotaged the efforts of the Democrats in Congress to try and restrain Bush. That is why I will never vote for either one of them. I can write off Kerry's and Edwards' votes for political expediency. I question their judgement, but I would vote for them if they were to become the nominee. But those two didn't stab the Democratic party in the back. Both Gephardt and Lieberman are traitors to the party.

[bain_sidhe]

15. If they do abandon Dean...

and I'm not saying that they will, but I would think they would be more likely to go for Kerry - he did vote for IWR, but he didn't stand beside Bush and grin about it... plus, he's got some solid liberal credentials, and his protesting of the Vietnam war still garners him *some* anti-war cache'. Just imho, of course.

[CMT]

16. likewise if Dean wins Iowa

and it appears he has at least a 50-50 chance of doing so, maybe better if you take in account all the recent polls and if Sen. Tom Harkin endorses him, as is expected, we could see the Dean numbers in NH rise again to the 40% plus level since he will get a boost from winning Iowa.

Here is the analysis that Rob used from the American Research Group web site:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/