Can HRC win the general with ZERO Black Vote?

[krawhitham]

Poll question: Can HRC win the general with ZERO Black Vote?

By not kicking Ferraro to the curb Hillary is going to alienate the African American vote, can she win the General Election without it?


Is her end game just winning the democratic nomination at all cost? I can not see how she wins VS McCain without Black Democrats

[yourout]

1. Short of reprogramming the machines she has no chance in the GE.

[quantass]

6. Florida 2000 / Ohio 2004 -- Warming up those machines for the GE

[goclark]

76. Machines ~ Fired Up ready to go!

Warmed up and programed with only one name -- her name

Queen Pillary

[Occam Bandage]

2. She'd have a very, very slim chance of doing that.

But she'd have zero chance of becoming President if she doesn't win the nomination. And torpedoing the Democratic party and appealing to racism are her only options.

[jackson_dem]

3. What evidence is there that she wouldn't overwhelmingly win the black vote like ever Dem since FDR?

Primaries are not the same as the general. Polling shows Obama would bleed 10-15% of white Democrats (whites are something like 70-75% of the electorate so do the math). Where is the polling showing the same with Hillary and blacks?

[angie_love]

12. B/c there needs to be an ENTHUSIASTIC black vote in order for Hillary to win the GE.

Without that shes toast. And that enthusiasm is not going to happen with her. Sorry bud, not going to happen.

[jackson_dem]

55. Let's do the math

Let's be generous for the sake of argument and say she slips to 70% among blacks. That is a loss of 20% of 10%. That comes out to be a loss of 2 points overall. Now let's compare that to losing 10% among whites. Let's split the white vote in half since rethugs won't vote Dem anyway. Make that 75% 37.5%. Now take 10% out of that. That comes out to a little less than 4%. Then there are Hispanics and Asians. If folks want to microtarget ethnic groups then we should nominate the candidate who appeals to groups other than her own.

[angie_love]

58. honestly she'll be lucky if she gets 25%.

[jackson_dem]

62. The last time a rethug won the black vote was, I believe, Hoover

Do you really believe McCain will win 75% of the black vote? Hillary has a 100% NAACP rating. What is John W. McCain's? 0? 10? 20 tops?

[Frank Booth]

77. You're right. There's no way McCain wins 75% of the black vote.

Hillary's guaranteed at least 75% of the black voters who show up. The problem is, if she's the nominee, there's a good chance many just won't bother showing up. And considering how close the past two elections have been, especially in states with significant black populations, that could cost her the election.

[SoCalDem]

81. Mccain doesn't WIN them... but they don't vote for her either

There's a long history of protest...people walked for a YEAR, rather than give money to the bus companies..

.........................................................

Montgomery Bus Boycott was a political and social protest campaign started in 1955 in Montgomery, Alabama, intended to oppose the city's policy of racial segregation on its public transit system. The ensuing struggle lasted from December 1, 1955, to December 20, 1956, and led to a United States Supreme Court decision that declared the Alabama and Montgomery laws requiring segregated buses unconstitutional.

and
http://home.att.net/~reniqua/what.html
..................................................................

They can, and probably would, vote for congresspeople and propositions and senate & local stuff, and just skip the president part.. Too bad there is not a "No Vote" box or "None of the Above", so there would be a tally of a true protest vote..

[angie_love]

94. they won't show up to vote for her. Why bother?

AGain, Hillary needs to have an enthusiastic amount of blacks voting for her come election day. The turnout needs to be BIG. Thats not going to happen if she is the nominee. Do you get it now? Do I need to spell it out for you slower? It doesn't matter if she gets 75 percent of the black vote when like 10 blacks come out and vote for her.

[pampango]

92. It would appear that your math boils down to two beliefs.

1. Blacks have no choice but to vote Democratic (at least in large numbers - 70%). You can take them for granted. In the "real world" you may be right, but a few months ago I didn't think we would have devolved to this strategy by mid-March.

2. A Black can't win the election because whites (at least 10% of them) won't vote for him and "then there are Hispanics and Asians". Better to nominate someone "who appeals to groups other than her own".

I know that these concepts were first introduced into the campaign explicitly in South Carolina. After all Jesse Jackson won primaries, but couldn't appeal to enough white voters, let alone Hispanics and Asians, and Blacks still voted Democratic in large numbers in 1984 and 1988 in spite of Jackson's failure to get the nomination. Alienating them in a 2008 primary battle wouldn't cause any permanent damage to our GE prospects.

It would have been more consistent of Hillary if, rather than saying she was proud to be on the debate stage with Obama, she had made the point that his presence there was a "fairy tale" and he could never win the GE. Now is not the "right time" for a Black to be nominated by the party as its presidential candidate. "You're very clean and articulate, Barack; perhaps the best Black candidate one could imagine, but you just can't win the election because you are Black."

That's what her "math" apparently boils down to.

[NDambi]

98. dont you get it..if there is even the slighest hint of unfairness it'll be lowww...same thing for

her feminist vote..the same would happen

[anigbrowl]

88. The continued existence Geraldine Ferraro in Clinton world

I think there's a serious risk that black voters may choose to simply sit it out rather than 'fall into line', sending a message to the Democratic party that they vote left, but can no longer be taken for granted.

[NDambi]

96. ha ha okay

[Catherine Vincent]

4. The majority of Blacks vote Democratic.

Nice try.

[Exilednight]

14. If you keep insulting a demographic, why would they support her?

[Catherine Vincent]

29. She's not insulting Blacks even though Obamabots here think she is. nt

[Exilednight]

35. So if I'm black I shouldn't feel insulted with what Geraldine said? I would.....

be pretty pissed off if my boss called me in the office and told me the only reason I am where am is because I am black.

That's about as insulting as it gets.

[Catherine Vincent]

47. Yes, you should be insulted. Ferraro said it...not Hillary. nt

[Exilednight]

53. She has a position within Hillary's campaign. If it's wrong Hillary should fire her.

[depakid]

48. So what is it -guilt by association?

what the hell does Ferraro have to do with Clinton?

[Exilednight]

52. She works for Hillary and was commenting on Hillary's campaign.

[depakid]

57. So she speaks on behalf of the campaign?

Look, the woman's getting old, and is kind of losing it -but I don't see how any reasonable person would translate the stupid things she said onto Clinton.

[Exilednight]

59. So if I say I work fo Obama and then say something stupid about Hillary....

you wouldn't be calling for my head?

Hillary had no problem calling for the resignation of Susan Powers.

What makes this different?

[me b zola]

63. Clinton defended her statements

Camp Clinton has been race-baiting since the black vote began to leave her just before the South Carolina primary. Ferraro's statements are in line with the memes that Clinton has been putting out. They were but one more in a series of nasty statements looking to garner votes from a "certain demographic" now that she lost the black vote.

[depakid]

90. Bullshit

I listened to her statement with my own ears, and she did nothing of the sort.

Not only was that a shallow response (all too typical of what I see here these days) but it's a dishonest one as well.

[me b zola]

95. You are corect that Sen Clinton didn't defend her statements

I was wrong about that. The rest of my post, however, is correct.

I have been wrong before, and am always willing to admit it when I am.

[Cha]

72. Yeah, that's right...keep on aplogizing

for hilary and her surrogates.

[Ka hrnt]

54. I wouldn't expect a reply if I were you...

at least not a cogent one. ;)

[XemaSab]

97. And something like 20% of Democrats are black

n/t

[NJSecularist]

5. Those who voted YES need to quit being serial liars.

If Hillary has close to 0 black support, she will be lucky to win 50 electoral votes.

[PFunk]

25. Yes-but only if she goes after the white vote by going full tilt racist.

But will kill the democratic party forever and promit the creation of a new third party by doing so.

[anamandujano]

51. The blacks have been played by Obama and his friends. Everyone

can see that except the bots here on DU. Even the MSM know it but it's not to their advantage to talk about it now or ever. They won't even mention it in the GE when they're trashing BO, because they want the whites to be incensed and stay home. If Hillary is the nominee, they want the blacks incensed and staying home.

You bots are dumber than door knobs.

[boppers]

82. Uhm...

"The blacks have been played by Obama and his friends."

What?

Are you suggesting that Hillary, as a candidate, would do more for their demographic than Obama?

If so, perhaps could you *say* that, rather than painting a whole demographic with a broad brush of "being naive"?

[mrreowwr_kittty]

89. Against McCain? He's like, the whitest candidate, ever.

He will turn her into a Commie Islamofascist, and she won't even have the Black vote to help her.

[anamandujano]

28. And yet you assume that all the big states that went to Hillary would rally behind Obama in the GE.

Can't have it both ways.

[NJSecularist]

34. That is more likely now given the data we have....

Then African Americans not feeling disenfranchised after Hillary's campaign and her surrogates making a concentrated attempt day after day to race bait.

With 40-50% white support in the general election, he will win NY, NJ and CA.

[anamandujano]

39. You take too much for granted.

[NJSecularist]

40. It is not unrealistic at all.

With 45% white support in NY, NJ and CA, he will win all those states given his black support. And 45% of white support in the general election is very realistic.

[anamandujano]

46. Keep crunching those numbers. Now, who was it that fiddled while Rome burned?

[Johnny__Motown]

7. she can't win...

[IntravenousDemilo]

8. You can't realistically expect Hillary to get ZERO black vote if she runs against a Republican. n/m

[PseudoIntellect]

9. Zero black vote?

Why would all AAs vote for McCain? Seems ridiculous.

[Exilednight]

19. They wouldn't have to vote for McCain, they can just stay home and not vote.

[jconner27]

74. I'm a black guy

I'm a black guy and I don't support Obama. And the idea Hillary would get zero support is a joke at best. Not all black people support Obama

[oviedodem]

79. It is a matter of numbers NOT majority with the Black vote. She will still

win the vote but I bet money that the turnout amongst the black vote will be low. See if (I know this is not accurate just an example) there are 5mil AA's to vote only 2 mil show up as compared to about 3.75-4.15. That is the problem, the turnout will be low which in effect is not good.

[jconner27]

87. I don't buy that shit

If she wins I can bet black people will go out and vote. Because four years of her is light years better than McCain.

[NDambi]

100. You underestimating the emotional aspect...if there is unfairness..even the slightest hint of it

black people will stay home..I know plenty that have said it already..they will not vote for hillary, and won't vote for mccain..they'll just stay home...]

its true..same thing i hear from some feminist..too..if its obama i'm staying home

you gotta remember people are funny.and btw, im black too

[ecstatic]

10. Its sad when I wonder if McCain would even stoop as low as

HRC has. Somehow I think, as crazy as he is, that even he has more integrity than HRC. It's truly sad to have to find out the truth about the Clintons in such an abrupt manner.

[woolldog]

I don't think McCain would. (nt)

[anamandujano]

33. What you should really wonder is if Obama is going to try the same sh*t on McCain

as he used on Hillary.

[TheZug]

11. Black votes don't really count anyway. That's just running up the score.

[Exilednight]

I hope you're being sarcastic.

[TheZug]

45. Umm, yeah. Sorry if it wasn't obvious enough.

[IndianaGreen]

13. Even if she gets half the AA vote that Kerry got in 2004

She will lose, and lose badly!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

Guess we'll never know seeing how she is not going to be the nominee.

[Skwmom]

15. It's not just the black vote she needs to worry about.

And for her buddy Ferraro - go ahead and vote for McCain so he can appoint extremely conservative judges to please the conservative base.

[elixir]

16. If HRC is in the general election, she will have the black democratic vote.

[ecstatic]

18. you guys sure are cocky nt

[angie_love]

20. LOL yeah right.

[scheming daemons]

Well.. you guys keep claiming Obama wouldn't win CA, NY, MA, NJ in the general because he lost ...

..them in the primary.

...so it only stands to reason that Hillary will get only 10% of the black vote since that's what she got in the primary.



See how that game works?

[NJSecularist]

26. Hillary will not win NY, CA or NJ with the type of black support she is getting now

[woolldog]

41. I think she could win CA without the black vote

But not PA or FL. Without Philly the democrats cannot carry PA. Without Miami Dade I don't think the democrats can carry FL.

I don't know about NY or NJ.

[NJSecularist]

50. It would be too close to comfort

But you may be right. The Democrats don't want to be too close to comfort in CA.

The Democrats need Philadelphia to carry PA. The Democrats need Miami-Dade to carry FL. The Democrats need Cuyahoga County to win OH. The Democrats need Bronx and Queens to carry NY. The Democrats need Essex County to carry NJ.

If Hillary can't win back black support, we are looking at an electoral college blowout.

[NJSecularist]

23. Says who? What has she done to earn their vote?

She and her surrogates have smeared blacks and their importance ever since she lost her grasp on the black vote in South Carolina. She hasn't earned anything, and for you to assume they will automatically flock to her is arrogant.

[woolldog]

27. You're kidding yourself.

She's passed the point of no return. There's already a lot of talk about staying home and not voting if she gets the nomination.

[ariesgem]

61. How the hell do you know? I can't speak for all black folks but

I know most of my family, friends and associates plan on not voting for her under ANY circumstances. The AA blogs are lit up about sitting out the general if Obama is ahead but Hillary manages to steal it at the convention.

Don't even begin to think that Miss Hillary can herd us like cattle into her corner after the campaign she displayed.

Fuck that.

[goldcanyonaz]

17. I'm still voting for her. I will NOT be swayed in my support.

I guess I don't count though.

[aquarius dawning]

21. At this point, I could personally care less.

[rug]

22. Do you expect African Americans to vote for McCain or to not vote at all because you say so?

[Lilith Velkor]

70. It's not racist if an Obama fan says it

Nosireebob. :eyes:

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Blacks will still vote, but not for the top of the ticket. n/t

[grantcart]

30. well she thought she would give it a try

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

31. Hooray! yet another OP from a DUer who speaks for all black people

Black people are PEOPLE. They don't all do the same thing as each other.

[Bullet1987]

32. Hell no...Blacks are pissed to high hell at Clinton right now

If she gets the nomination, expect very low Black turnout all over the country.

[anamandujano]

44. And they will cut off their noses to spite their faces?

[Leopolds Ghost]

64. Yeah, that's right.

They're obliged to vote for Hillary, who refused to fire Ferarro...
after McCain fired somene literally in the lobby after their speech
for promoting the "Barack Hussein Obama" meme.

[anamandujano]

68. Maybe they would like McCain better.

[FrenchieCat]

78. Many won't give a shit....it's not like they get anything out of it,

no matter who they vote for.

Many Black folks are used to weathering the storm.......like they always have had to. Nothing new. :shrug: (only speaking for my black brothers and sisters that I talk to on a regular basis).

[ariesgem]

65. No, Hillary cut off her nose to spite her face by throwing the black vote under the bus. n/t

[SoCalDem]

83. yes

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5030487&mesg_id=5035291

[mtnsnake]

36. Since when do you speak for all Black people? What an insult to Black Democrats

that you think 100% of them would abandon the Party if Hillary gets the nomination. How condescending that you think they'd rather have Republicans in the WH again if Barack doesn't win the nomination.

[anamandujano]

37. I nominate this thread as the stupidest for the day.

It shows how twisted the BO followers minds have become.

[candice]

38. She already has won Black votes and more Blacks say they will vote for her

than whites say they will vote for Obama (at least in exit polls in Mississippi).

Georgia and Mississippi tend to have more Republican voters so the Democratic candidate probably doesn't matter unless the candidate can be seen as more conservative than McCain.

[angie_love]

43. and I guess you're proud of that. Not surprising. Who cares its Mississippi. Land of racists.

[LisaL]

42. No.

She won't win election without black votes.
Just as Obama won't win election on black votes alone.

[Ka hrnt]

49. Well...

Ignoring the first part and just answering "Can HRC win the general with ZERO Black Vote?", I'd have to say: No way in heck.

[Ka hrnt]

56. But the better question is:

Can either Clinton or Obama win the general election with a fractured base? Not likely, IMO.

[LisaL]

60. Each would have a hard time winning if the base wasn't fractured,

let alone with a fractured base.
Welcome, president McCain.

[Ka hrnt]

93. Quite right....

Which blows my mind; this election should have been a "gimme" for the Democrats:

1. Unpopular president.
2. Unpopular war.
3. Shaky economy.
4. Republican scandals galore.
5. High gas prices.

As I've said before, the Democrats have become the masters of seizing defeat from the jaws of victory... :shrug:

[Yossariant]

66. Indeed she can. Obama loses far more Democrats if she's not the nominee:

"The vast majority of Democratic voters say they would support either Obama or Clinton over McCain. But in an Obama-McCain matchup, 14% of Democratic voters say they would support McCain, compared with 8% who would do so if Clinton is the nominee...

In addition, female Democrats look at the race differently depending on the matchup. While 93% of women in the party say they would vote for Clinton over McCain, just 79% say they would support Obama over McCain...

A quarter of Democrats (25%) who back Clinton for the nomination say they would favor McCain in a general election test against Obama. The "defection" rate among Obama's supporters if Clinton wins the nomination is far lower; just 10% say they would vote for McCain in November, while 86% say they would back Clinton..."

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1254

[ShadowLiberal]

67. She'll get most of the black vote anyway

Hillary could probably do almost anything and still get a large part of the black vote in a general election, the republicans would have to put forth a serious effort to steal blacks away from us for Hillary to lose them. Right now the only race group the GOP is fighting to try to steal from us is Hispanics.

[krawhitham]

69. Not after this

She has a small window it react, and is is closing

[woolldog]

80. percentage-wise, yes

but in terms of numbers, no.

The only reason democrats have a chance at winning states like PA and FL is because of the large AA population in urban centers like Miami Dade and Philly.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

71. whoop there it is....and you Obama folks always blaming the Clinton folks of playing the race card

[boppers]

85. ITYM Whoomp.

No commentary needed. Just this, for comparison:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H8Nq7BglIg


And for nostalgia's sake:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnrLloO7nFQ

[goletian]

73. she cant win even with black votes. shes damaged goods...

shes made the fatal mistake of putting all her eggs in mccains basket. shes got no chance.

[Catherina]

75. Depends how you define Puerto Ricans

since Puerto Rica is the "new" firewall :rolf:

[travelingtypist]

84. I'm listening to black people calling in to Randi's

show and Schultz's show and Malloy and they're all saying
the same thing -- Hillary can go to hell. If Hillary's in
the general, say hi to President Grandpa.

[cooolandrew]

86. It's a reasonable question we need more polls like this.

[oasis]

91. Geraldine who? If you ask anyone but a political junkie about the issue, that's what you'll hear.

African Americans will turn out to vote and they will vote Democrat.

[EmilyAnne]

99. Can ANY Democrat win the general with ZERO black vote? Of course not.