THE MATH - Thursday, March 13 - After Mississippi

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Thursday, March 13 – After Mississippi

8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Changes and additions today:
- Updated figures and percentages after Mississippi
- Expanded superdelegates section
- Numbers of additional superdelegates needed to win the nomination

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,652.0 of 3,227.0 – 82.2%

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 13:
Hillary Clinton – 1,493.5 (531.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,619.5 (405.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 909.0
(Sources: AP, Wikipedia 3/13/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 13:
Hillary Clinton – 1,244.5
Barack Obama – 1,407.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 575.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/13/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,819.5 (205.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,982.5 (42.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

“Primary Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 13: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 1,090.0
Barack Obama – 1,107.0
(Source: Countdown with Keith Olbermann, 3/10/08, plus MS)

“Caucus Only” Pledged Delegates as of March 13: (for informational purposes only)
Hillary Clinton – 154.5
Barack Obama – 300.5
(based on source for “primary only” pledged delegates above)

SUPERDELEGATES (EXPANDED INFORMATION)

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 249 (Source: AP 3/13/08)
Barack Obama – 212 (Source: AP 3/13/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 334

Under Status Quo:

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,522.0 Pledged, 249 Super, 254 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,695.0 Pledged, 212 Super, 118 more superdelegates needed

There are only 334 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 254 of 334 – 76.0% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 118 of 334 – 35.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

I’ll share more details for this section in the coming days, such as percentages of superdelegates needed under other scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan.

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Status Quo as of March 13 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 12,903,848
(Source: Wikipedia 3/13/08 plus states listed above)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 13 (includes WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 13,173,496
Hillary Clinton – 12,639,549

Caucuses only (Status Quo) as of March 13:
Barack Obama – 471,170
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, as of March 13 (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 13,774,834

With Michigan only added, as of March 13* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 13,644,666
Hillary Clinton – 13,232,157
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, as of March 12* (includes IA,ME,NV,WA,MS):
Barack Obama – 14,220,880
Hillary Clinton – 14,103,143
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

If new elections are held in Florida and Michigan, the primary season is still almost done. Pledged delegates in would be 2,652.0 of 3,540.0, or 74.9%.

Changes in the number of delegates are considered in the percentages below.
With Florida, add 185 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67)
With Michigan, add 128 delegates (Clinton 74, Obama 0)
With Florida and Michigan, add 313 delegates (Clinton 179, Obama 67)

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 64.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 2 – New elections in Florida and Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 59.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 3 – Michigan seated as is, Florida seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 54.4%, OBAMA NEEDS 45.6%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 4 – Florida not seated, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 61.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 38.4%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 5 – Michigan not seated, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 6 – Florida seated as is, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 60.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.1%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 7 – Florida seated as is, New election in Michigan
CLINTON NEEDS 58.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.1%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 8 – Michigan seated as is, Florida not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 57.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 42.3%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 9 – Michigan seated as is, New election in Florida
CLINTON NEEDS 55.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.1%, in all remaining contests

THE NEW ELECTIONS SCENARIO

Looking at Scenario 2 above, if both Florida and Michigan hold new primaries, Senator Clinton will need to win an average of 59.2% in all the remaining contests, including Florida and Michigan. That’s considerably higher than the 54.4% she would need on average in every remaining contest if Florida and Michigan’s delegates were seated based on the January primary results. Senator Clinton has achieved 59% in only one state during this primary season.

On the other side of the coin, if new elections are held in Michigan and Florida, Senator Obama will need to win an average of 40.8% in all the remaining primaries, including Florida and Michigan. Even though that’s higher than the 35.8% he would need under status quo in all the remaining contests, it’s still highly probable to achieve.

Clinton’s wins over 59%: (1)
Arkansas – 70%

Obama’s wins over 59%: (18)
Idaho – 80%
Hawaii – 76%
Alaska – 75%
Kansas 74%
Nebraska – 68%
Washington – 68%
Colorado – 67%
Georgia – 66%
Minnesota – 66%
Illinois – 65%
Virginia – 64%
Louisiana – 62%
North Dakota – 62%
Mississippi – 61%
Wyoming – 61%
Maine – 60%
Maryland – 60%
Vermont – 59%

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

PENNSYLVANIA

There are 158 pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. Winning with 70% here would require Senator Clinton to pick up 111 of those delegates to Senator Obama's 47.

If she does this, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 73.7% in all the remaining contests, under status quo, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates.

If new elections are held in both Michigan and Florida, Senator Clinton would still need to win by an average margin of 63.6% in all the remaining contests including Florida and Michigan, to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates.

Only if Michigan and Florida are BOTH seated as is, from the January elections, AND Senator Clinton takes Pennsylvania with 70.1%, would she catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates in Pennsylvania. That's a very tall order, everything considered.

BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season. I’m still looking for actual rules or guidelines for the convention balloting process. Any links will be greatly appreciated!

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/3e5b3bfa1c1718d07f_6rm6bhyc4.pdf



*********


Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.

[phrigndumass]

1. Permission granted to use this info in other threads

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

:)

[Window]

2. K/R.

:kick:

[mod mom]

3. Thank you for your effort in putting this together & allowing others to pass it on.

Does it exclude Spitzer's super delegate vote?

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks ... not sure about Spitzer's SD vote

The superdelegate totals given are the highest reported from any source. In both cases this morning, the source with the highest reported was AP. If AP included Spitzer, then this includes it as well.

There would be only a fraction of 1% of a difference without Spitzer's SD vote.

:hi:

[mod mom]

8. Watch for changes in Ohio as provisionals & absentees get certified.

These votes are concentrated in the urban areas so I believe they will favor Obama:



Last Updated: 1:08 pm | Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Election count starts March 25
BY THE ENQUIRER
HAMILTON CO. -- The Hamilton County Board of Elections expects to begin counting more than 12,000 provisional ballots March 25 and will know by April 3 whether any races are close enough to be subjected to an automatic recount. Ohio law requires the official count, which involves counting provisional ballots and retallying the ballots from Election Day, to begin between March 25 and 29 and be complete by April 4.

The results must be certified to the state April 8.

If the margin in any race is within one half of 1 percent of the total votes cast in that race, the race is subject to an automatic recount.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080312/NEWS01/803120426/1056/COL02

BTW OVER 20,000 IN EACH OF FRANKLIN (COLUMBUS) AND CUYAHOGA (CLEVELAND)

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. Interesting, thanks! (nt)

[phrigndumass]

4. Go to my journal to compare today's info with prior reports

Link to journal:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

- Phrig

[stahbrett]

6. good stuff!!! (nt)

[phrigndumass]

7. Thanks, love your sig line

Yoko Ono, LOL!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Off to work, please keep it bumped

Have a good day!

:D

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. 2+2=4 kick

[yellerpup]

12. Thanks for this comprehensive compilation.

Your work is truly appreciated. Kicking for recognition.

[skipos]

13. Great info

So IA,ME,NV,WA, finally reported their popular vote totals? Or is this an estimate?

[phrigndumass]

19. IA,ME,NV,WA ...

Although the counts are "unofficial", what they have so far has been tallied and reported. What I've included in the OP figures is what has been tallied so far. These tallies are on the state pages under the Wikipedia source linked in the OP. Click on the state name for more detail about that state.

Thanks skipos!

[Yurovsky]

14. Beware the cornered beast ...

I expect the ferocity of the racist attacks from Kamp Klinton to escalate in the coming weeks leading up to PA.

[ORDem]

15. Impressive work! K&R n/t

:kick:

[elixir]

16. This article from the BG outlines some of the delegate progress...

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/13/clinton_obama_add_to_delegate_numbers/

[phrigndumass]

20. Good quote from Obama at your link

Thanks elixir!

From your link:
"My bottom line is, I do want to make sure that the Florida and Michigan delegations have an opportunity to participate in the convention," Obama said. "And we want to figure out an equitable way to do that."

from boston.com, the official website of The Boston Globe

Good info about delegate process as well.

[snooper2]

17. kick and rec...

I bet you wont' see many Clinton supports on this thread..

:rofl:

[samrock]

18. Sooo based on the above numbers..

Obama has 4% more delegates than Hillary.. Thats nice.. I do not want EITHER out of this race.. I want events to play themselves out and let all the states get there chance to vote/re-vote than we can see where we stand, epically in relationship to McCain and national/world events.. I want the candidate with the strongest chance to win in November to still be around.. It looks like the super delegates will be deciding this

[skipos]

23. "I want the candidate with the strongest chance to win in November"

Check out the extensive SUSA head to head polls. Look at the number of states that Obama outperforms Clinton against McCain. Look at the realclearpolitics averages of Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain.

What is your conclusion?

As Hillary decends into more ugliness and lies in her futile attempt to try to get the superdelegates to give the nomination to her even though Obama has won more primaries, more caucuses, more blue states, more red states, more swing states, more pledged delegates and more votes... I ABSOLUTELY want her out of the race. It is pretty obvious if she can't be the nominee, then she doesn't want a Dem president. She is free to prefer McCain over Obama, and I am free to think she is the worst Dem candidate in a long, long time.

[bigbrother05]

21. K and R

[phrigndumass]

22. bump

[phrigndumass]

24. bump

[phrigndumass]

50. bump

[hogwyld]

25. I looks like they will seat the FL and MI delegations

So, I guess any lead that Obama had, is going to evaporate.

[phrigndumass]

26. Do you have a source for that?

Please give us a link. Thanks!

[Buzz Clik]

38. Both sides have to agree to that. Why would Obama agree to seating MI when he wasn't on the ballot?

I, too, would like to see some verification for this.

======================

EDIT:

Here's the latest I've seen:

Obama camp raises flags about Florida revote

posted by Tammy Lytle on Mar 12, 2008 11:32:05 AM

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is raising red flags about the idea of a revote in Florida to solve the mess over the state's delegates to the presidential nominating convention.

David Plouffle, campaign manager to Obama, noted that the lead advocate for a mail-in revote is Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida, is a supporter of his opponent Sen. Hillary Clinton. Plouffle said any revote would need to get U.S. Justice Department approval.

Plouffle again floated the idea of seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan - which were stripped of their delegates because they held their primaries too early - through some sort of negotiated "arrangement." One idea that has been tossed around is to evenly split the delegates between the two Democratic presidential candidates. If Florida's Jan. 29 vote were counted, Clinton would get a net of about 38 more pledged delegates than Obama.

"The easiest...is an arrangement that allows those delegates to be seated,"
Plouffle said. "But not based on those elections. That would not be fair."

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2008/03/obama-campaises.html

[phrigndumass]

42. Thanks for that, Buzz Clik

I read a broadcast email today from the Obama campaign that says pretty much the same. They're willing to allow re-voting in Florida and Michigan.

But seating Florida and Michigan as is, from January results, is out of the question.

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

27. More tasty superdelegate statistics

Adding scenarios to the expanded Superdelegate section in OP ...

Under Status Quo:

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,532.0 Pledged, 249 Super, 244 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,695.0 Pledged, 212 Super, 118 more superdelegates needed

There are only 334 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 244 of 334 – 72.8% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 118 of 334 – 35.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

**********************

Or, with new elections in Florida and Michigan:

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,688.5 Pledged, 262 Super, 258 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,851.5 Pledged, 216 Super, 141 more superdelegates needed

There are only 351 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 258 of 351 – 73.4% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 141 of 351 – 40.0% of remaining superdelegates needed

**********************

Or, with Florida and Michigan seated as is, from January results:

Number of Additional Superdelegates Needed if Remaining Pledged is 50/50:
Hillary Clinton – 1,711.0 Pledged, 262 Super, 235 more superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 1,762.0 Pledged, 216 Super, 230 more superdelegates needed

There are only 351 superdelegates left, so these would be the percentages needed:
Hillary Clinton – 235 of 351 – 67.0% of remaining superdelegates needed
Barack Obama – 230 of 351 – 65.5% of remaining superdelegates needed

**********************

To summarize it a different way:

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
Status Quo – Clinton needs 244 of 334, or 72.8%
New elections FL/MI – Clinton needs 258 of 351, or 73.4%
FL/MI seated as is – Clinton needs 235 of 351, or 67.0%

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
Status Quo – Obama needs 118 of 334, or 35.3%
New elections FL/MI – Obama needs 141 of 351, or 40.0%
FL/MI seated as is – Obama needs 230 of 351, or 65.5%

[cindyw]

28. Kick

:kick:

[TheDoorbellRang]

29. The new math is here!!! Thanks, phrigndumass

Something else to consider: the super D's could end this agony long before the convention:

Right now using the AP totals, Clinton is at 1497 and Obama at 1602.

Let's say she wins PA 58-42%, netting 92 delegates to Obama's 62.

Then Obama takes NC 54-46%, netting Clinton 53 delegates to Obama's 62.
The same day, Obama takes IN 51-49%, netting each candidate 36 delegates.

Their totals would now be 1678 for Clinton; 1762 for Obama. If the remaining 336 super D's chose to, they could put Obama over the top at this point.

Not saying they would, but I think that's the point of critical mass where the super d's can seal the deal. It's more likely that they'll keep trickling in a day or two at a time so it's less obvious, but I don't think they'll let this hang in the air all the way to the convention.

[phrigndumass]

31. Careful with those numbers, I might propose marriage again LOL

Those projected takes are very close to the polling numbers, too. Wouldn't be surprised if it falls in line exactly like that.

Thanks!!!

:dunce:

[TheDoorbellRang]

37. ROFL. And they say math is boring

I've been having a lot of fun with all these math scenarios. :D

[phrigndumass]

41. Math is addictive when it's enlightening!

It helps you see the "why" behind the campaign decisions.

And it's more fun when others are addicted, too!

:toast:

[adoraz]

30. excellent job!

[Megahurtz]

32. Yes We Can!!!

[RiverStone]

33. kicking

Thanks for your work!

[FedoraLV]

34. Thank you!

Solid work.

-FedoraLV

[phrigndumass]

35. Plush vote LOL

Cute kitteh at your sig link!

[tabasco]

36. Thank you for putting this together.

Really nice work!

Very helpful information.

[quantass]

39. Now those are FACTS

[Buzz Clik]

40. Many thanks for this.

I spent a couple of hours yesterday chasing numbers around a spreadsheet. It's dizzying.

The various scenarios will drive you absolutely insane, but the bottom line remains pretty consist: As long as Obama doesn't unthinkably cave and give Hillary FL and MI as they voted earlier (particularly MI), then Hillary has a very tough go of it.

[phrigndumass]

43. Ugh ... Spreadsheets!

With all the scenarios, it's been tricky! The hardest part has been setting them up, and then double-checking it all to make sure it's all accurate.

And then automating it to update the figures when new data comes, so you don't have to do all the work over again.

I think I got it licked, though! Now all I need is a place to store it where others can download it and play with it.

[Buzz Clik]

45. I would love to have your file!

This place is pretty straight forward for free storage:

http://www.box.net/

[phrigndumass]

48. I'll definitely check on this, thanks!

Someone else mentioned googledocs, but I don't want to sign up for an email address. This one looks like a thumbs up.

[phrigndumass]

44. Speak confidently, without apprehension; you have the truth on your side!

This is the big stick you can carry as you walk softly.

Good night!

:dunce:

[grantcart]

47. good night

[Scurrilous]

46. Kick

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

49. THE MATH - FRIDAY edition will be posted later Friday

All the scenarios for superdelegates will be extra tasty, I promise!

Working on each candidate's superdelegate needs for two master-scenarios at the moment:
1. If pledged delegates remaining are split 50/50
2. If pledged delegates remaining are split 55/45 in Senator Clinton's favor

There'll be 9 sub-scenario in each master-scenario, concerning Florida and Michigan.

- Phrig