New Hampshire poll: Clark 3 points shy of Kerry

[Dookus]

From http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

This is a rolling poll that's been running since 12/26. In that time, Kerry has dropped 4 points, while Clark has gone up 1. It now stands at:

Dean 37
Kerry 16
Clark 13
Lieberman 6
Gephardt 6
Edwards 4
Kucinich 2

[giantrobot_2000]

1. ...

Fuck it, I'm going to fly out and volunteer for a week. Good news, go Wes!

[MariaS]

8. I just

confirmed my flight to NH. Can't wait to help the General.

[giantrobot_2000]

Hey MariaS, when are you getting in?

[MariaS]

45. Hi

I'm flying in next thursday the 8th. I'm excited to be with all you great people. It's gonna be a blast.

[Dookus]

46. sigh...

I'm jealous. But NH is a LONG ways from California...

[lancdem]

2. I would love to see Clark pass Kerry and finish no worse

than second.

[jeter]

47. If Clark finishes second in NH

He will get a boost nationally.

[shivaji]

50. If Clark finishes anywhere close to Dean, he is then electable....

otherwise if he finishes a distant 2nd or 3rd to Dean in NH, IA, AZ & SC, then I am afraid it only means one thing....Clark can't excite the democratic base. So, if he loses a significant portion of the base, it is extremely unlikely that he can make up the deficit from republican votes.

If Clark finishes way behind Dean and still is nominated, I will stay at home in the GE totally discouraged, and save on gas and wear and tear on my car.

We will soon find out. My expectations are that Dean wins the nomination, and there will be much excitement on our side in November.

[KittyWampus]

3. There's Something Torturous About Following A Poll Daily

but thanks for posting! :)

Happy New Year Fellow DU'ers... we're going to kick Junior out on his :kick:

[Dookus]

5. lol...

nah, it's easy. Just click a link and the numbers are right there.

I'm mostly curious, naturally, to see how Clark's doing. I'm happy to see he's rising.

[Kathleen04]

4. Interesting poll.

Dean is holding steady at 37.

Kerry has been dropping one point each time the poll is conducted.

The number of undecideds is also on the decline.

I'm glad Clark is inching towards 2nd..Go Clark!

[Cheswick2.0]

6. Kerry is not playing it very smart here

It is obvious he needs to go after Clark not Dean. Clark is the one who makes him irrelevant.

[Dookus]

7. well

maybe he shouldn't go after anybody at all.

But I agree with you that if Kerry doesn't come in 2nd in NH, he's probably out of the race.

[Kathleen04]

12. I don't see a scenario where..

Kerry can remain in the race for long.

He looks like he may come in 3rd in Iowa, possibly still retain 2nd in NH. But, his organization in the February 3rd states doesn't seem good..he's polling 4th in many of them.

[IndianaGreen]

10. I have been saying for some time that Clark made Kerry irrelevant

Unlike Kerry, Clark is not tainted by the IWR vote and he is a true hero all the way around.

[JI7]

19. he isn't irrelevant to me

i'm sticking by him.

[IndianaGreen]

22. Good for you!

I will defend your right to stand by your candidate. I will even come to Kerry's defense if that scumbag Ted Koppel starts talking about Kerry's "vanity campaign" as he did Kucinich.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Bye, bye Kerry!

Go back to Georgetown and meditate on your IWR vote, and on the 10,000 dead and wounded that resulted from that vote.

[Brian_Expat]

11. Look for Kerry to hit Clark with attacks

Similar to what Kerry did to Dean last week.

[IndianaGreen]

13. If Kerry does that, he will sink further in the polls

Heck, Kerry is polling behind Sharpton in a nationwide poll!

[dae]

54. Kerry, Gephardt, and Leiberman still don't understand that the average

Democrat is PO'd, not over it, and wants to take it to the neoCONS, not molly coddle the twits.
:kick:

[Kathleen04]

14. Well..

I hope he comes up with something creative. ;)

[gulliver]

15. I doubt it really.

Kerry's best bet is to pry voters from Dean and undecideds. Kerry knows he has to erase the current Dean plurality or no one else has a chance.

Also, it's really hard to attack Clark legitimately. Clark is espousing exactly the values that Kerry stands for. If I had to bet, I would say Kerry and Clark probably respect each other a great deal.

[Turkw]

20. I think all the candidates like each other for the most part, that's good

[Northwind]

16. Golly!

Clark only 3 points behind the guy that is gettinbg beat 2-1! Miraculous!

[Dookus]

17. I honestly

don't understand the pleasure you derive in doing this.

Clearly, the 2nd place finish in NH is desired by both Clark and Kerry, and will have a strong impact on the rest of the race. What's wrong with discussing that here? Why do you have to crap on every thread? Do you think it helps your candidate? Clue: It doesn't!

[WillyBrandt]

23. Amen, brother (sister?)!

n/t

[Northwind]

25. And I do not understand

That you guys get so excited about your semi-democratic candidate battling it out for the place of first loser. :shrug:

And my candidate? He does not need any help. In case you had not noticed, he's that guy at the very top of the list. The one with more than a third of the support in a field of 9 people.

[Dookus]

26. Well that implies...

that the game's over now and we should all go home and wait for Dean's coronation. That's not going to happen. We're going to have primaries. Most political observers agree that if Kerry doesn't place 2nd in NH, he's in very serious trouble.

And YOUR candidate has lost 8 points in NH in the last two weeks. Things are fluid... things are changing... keep an open mind ;)

[Northwind]

28. Not a chance

Dean is the only possible option. Anyone else gets nominated, the Dean people stay home and watch all of you cringe in horror while Bush gets another 4 years.

Nominate Dean or give Bush the White House.

Your choice.

NBD '04

[Dookus]

30. No...

a handful of spiteful, petulant people will stay home. I'm not too concerned about them, to be totally honest. If Clark gets the nomination, he'll bring in 1000x the voters that stay home in a fit of pique.

[Northwind]

32. The number of Clark supporters

Does not even come close to the number of us "petulent, spiteful people."

This race is ours. You support Dean or you get Bush. Period.

NBD '04

[Dookus]

33. Ah...

election by fiat now. We tried that last time - I wasn't wild about the results.

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dookus]

36. Then I very strongly

urge you to put me on ignore.

You spend a lot of time following me around threads for someone who thinks my opinion is irrelevant.

[Northwind]

39. Frankly

I do not recall even speaking to you before.

But then all Clark supporters do is rehash the same tired drivel over and over, so who can tell them apart?

[Dookus]

41. Unlike

your thought-provoking posts. :eyes:


This is a new poll, with new data. Hardly re-hashed.

[Kool Kitty]

53. How gracious of you!

Yes, I've have noticed that your candidate is at the very top of the list. I have just chosen not to support him. (If he gets the nomination, then he gets my vote, though.) And until he gets the nomination (if and when), I'll vote for whoever I choose to. I know that your reply wasn't to me, but as a Clark supporter, I just wanted to let you know. Your candidate may not need our help now, but he may just need us later. Maybe a little less condescension would be better? It's just a thought.

[Dookus]

55. but... but...

don't you understand it's a one-way thing? If we don't support Dean AS OF TODAY, they'll take their ball and go home!

Oh wait... I think we can afford the couple dozen lost votes of the Nobody-But-Dean contingent.

[Walt Starr]

18. Damn

I'm routing for Kerry to take second in New Hampshire.

[0rganism]

21. Looks like Kerry's been dropping like a stone.

while Kucinich support doubled! (hehe, don't I wish it meant something)

CMB and Sharpton are dropping off the map, which is kind of a shame.

[Kathleen04]

24. Gephardt in '88:

Interesting info about the Gephardt campaign in 1988 underneath the NH poll in the link:

"At an equivalent point in time in 1988, Dick Gephardt was at 3% in the New Hampshire Poll daily tracking. After his win in Iowa on February 8, 1988, Gephardt jumped 8 percentage points in 2 days in New Hampshire to 11%. (If those with a favorable opinion of Gephardt but undecided in the 2004 race were to vote for Gephardt, he would pick up 8 percentage points.) Over the final weekend of the 1988 campaign, Gephardt picked up another 6 percentage points to end the final day of tracking at 17%. He finished second in New Hampshire with 20% of the vote (Michael Dukakis came in first with 36% of the vote - his ballot preference stayed at 35% in the week after Iowa - and Paul Simon came in third with 17% of the vote)."

I wonder how far a Gephardt win in Iowa could propell him in NH in 2004.

[Dookus]

35. That's a good point...

The downside to Clark not competing in Iowa is that he can't get a boost from it. Kerry and Gephardt can.

[DemDogs]

27. ARG - who cares

THE single most unreliable poll. Surprised that Braun is not winning.

[Dookus]

29. Why is it unreliable?

Are the trends it indicates wrong? Are they making up answers? Do you have anything to offer other than this?

[Clark4VotingRights]

31. How long has Kerry been in the race? He's refusing federal matching funds

How long as Clark been in the race?

Clark's standing, and fund raising, is nothing short of
extraordinary. He's a great and brilliant man, with a good
heart, a moral core, and the most impressive resume I've ever seen.

[Northwind]

37. If his fund raising is so great

Why is he stealing money from people who have no desire to support him?

[Dookus]

38. I saw you make this assertion elsewhere...

what do you mean by it? How is he stealing money? From whom? Should we call the FBI?

[Northwind]

40. He is taking federal funds

Tax money. From people that do not support him. That is stealing. It is not like taxes going towards good cause or public works, it is nothing more than stealing from the mouths of children in order for him to excercise his vanity.

Even Kerry did not stoop so low. He may be tanking, but at least he used his own money rather than stealing others.

[Name removed]

42. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LuminousX]

43. I disagree with this argument

Yes, by taking federal money, Clark is taking MY money and I don't support him, BUT I support public financed elections. I don't have a problem with this.

Just means I have to give Dean just a bit extra.

[Dookus]

44. No he's not taking YOUR money...

unless you specifically CHOSE to contribute to the fund.

[SahaleArm]

48. Yep, just don't check the three dollar box...

If you support public financing - check the box. If everyone was funded equally with only public financing, who would win? It won't happen but it is an interesting question.

[Nashyra]

49. I'm going to NH on the 23

and I'm from Nevada.

[Dookus]

51. good for you!

I'm envious.

[democratreformed]

52. Hope you have fun, Nashyra

I went Dec 5. It was a great experience.

[moz4prez]

57. what's a democratreformed, anyway?

is that like a reformed Jew? :)

[democratreformed]

58. I'm no good with nicknames

so I decided to steal my sisters :). Hers was ladyreformed (don't know what that means either). I put in the wrong e-mail so that account is floating out in cyberspace somewhere and I had to come up with a new one. This was the best I could do :).

[stickdog]

56. The moral to the story.

Attacking Dean of basically nothing hurts you a lot more than it hurts Dean.

The only ones it helps are the candidates who aren't constantly attacking.

[Padraig18]

61. Kerry is sinking like a stone.

The wagon's in the ditch, Senator...

[Sean Reynolds]

59. ...

[Kathleen04]

60. 2 points shy of Kerry now

New poll today: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Kerry, Edwards, and Gephardt have all lost 1 point--those points went straight into the undecided column.

Everyone else is holding steady.