If Democrats don't defeat Bush this year, look for a third party movement

[Brian_Expat]

It's simple. If Dean is the nominee and loses, the Dem establishment will come out of the woodwork, scream "we told you so," and chase all the new Dean folks out of the party. They'll want somewhere else to go.

If Dean isn't the nominee and the nominee loses, all the angry Dean people will say "we told you so," and will be tempted to set up a home outside of the DNC.

[BeyondGeography]

1. Yeah, I know

It's all about Howard.

Yawn.

[BeatleBoot]

8. Haven't you heard?

The world revolves around him.

After all these years, to think that Galileo was wrong.

[BeyondGeography]

9. Galileo?

He was Copernicus-Lite.

[IA_Seth]

44. LOL - I have to say Clark supporters are the most witty!

Ever since seeing General Clark appear on the Bill Maher show on HBO I have noticed his supporters (to me) seem to be the wittiest group around.

Has anyone found any stats on the age ranges or other demographics and how that relates to the nominee they support?

I would be very interested.

Seth

[BobbyJay]

2. If Clark is elected,

I see the Democrats being in power for a long, long time.

[meow mix]

42. me too

a clark victory would be like winning the war.
america comes together... and we actually get some stuff done.
im kinda sick of the fighting and id like someone special.
clark plz =)
its a rare opportunity..

[hope42mro]

43. me three

[Walt Starr]

3. Yep, this year is critical for the Democrats

This is what a decade of party establishment elitist insiders have wrought.

[Democrats unite]

4. Thank God Bill Clinton was a "party establishment elitist"

Or the Republicans would have had th 90's also!

[BobbyJay]

5. No kidding

Let's shoot ourselves in the foot, here.

[Walt Starr]

6. Clinton lost the Congress in 1994

I consider that a major failure because that is the reason he was opened up to an impeachment.

Impeachment proceedings are 100% political, and losing the Congress allowed it to happen.

Impeachment directly lead to the conditions by which the sitting Vice President was in close enough of a race to have it stolen from him.

Party Establishment Elitists won the battle of 1992, but they are severely losing the war, so badly that the Democratic Party stands on the brink of obsolescence.

[sandnsea]

21. health care reform lost the Congress

It's kind of important to remember that.

[knight_of_the_star]

25. And so did

Trying to undo "Don't ask don't tell" and contract with America.

Say what you want about Newt Gingrich, he's a good political strategist and a good opportunist.

[mouse7]

26. Moynihan lost health care AND the Congress

Moynihan was a sellout obstructionist that cased the health care debacle, which led to the loss of Congress.

[cryofan]

35. 70% of Americans WANT universal healthcare

More than one poll shows that.

What the Democrats lost back in the 90s was the PROPAGANDA BATTLE. Everything hinges off of that.....

Win the propaganda battle and you can push damn near ANYTHING through....

[worldgonekrazy]

37. Assault Weapons Ban contributed to loss as well

It really mobilized the right wing against the Democrats in '94.

It was a fucking stupid thing to do, IMO. Gun control is not a winning issue, and I don't think it is important enough to pursue despite being unpopular. It took Clinton a while to learn how to pick his battles.

[IA_Seth]

47. And here comes my conservatism....

While I am a mere 25 years old and certainly do not profess to know everything, I am pretty firm in my conviction that gun-control is actually a deciding factor on whether or not MANY blue collar non-union Americans decide whether or not they are Republican or Democrat.

The National Rifle Association is a very large, very powerful, propaganda machine. I am an avid hunter and gun collector and receive countless junk-mail pleas from the NRA each year spouting off about how the Democrats are trying to burn the Bill of Rights and this and that.

I am a Democrat. I am pro-choice, I am against tax breaks for the wealthy (even if I win that dang Powerball jackpot one of these days), and I support initiatives to improve the environment world-wide. But I am also a 'typical' Iowan. I hunt. I grew up around guns and I don't think that guns are a cause of crime in America. If someone is willing to kill they will kill with a knife, a bat, a freakin rock or whatever. To me, the gun control issue is a unnecessary 'Democratic' view that pushes people away.

Any thoughts?

Seth

[Northwind]

7. Correction

If the Democrats do not nominate Dean this year (which would be synonymous with a win anyway) look for a third party movement. If the Dems nominate anyone except Dean, the Democratic Party will die, period.

[Alice Franken]

22. Really?

Link, please.

:eyes:

[PissedOffPollyana]

27. Wow!

That has got to be one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read here and that's saying a lot!

It really does not matter one whit who the nominee is if the Democratic party does not work to serve its base constituency. That is what will damage the party, not kill it by the way... there will always be a strong constituency for semi-liberal centrist policies (maybe not enough to win national elections, but enough to still be a national force).

I wonder often how old some of the posters here are and how much reading into politics & history goes into some of these ridiculous blanket assertions. Anyone with half a wit in their head would know that the survival of any entrenched political system does not revolve around your flavor of the moment. It is a coalition of millions of people who think similarly enough to vote based upon their interests and that of the country. One candidate in one election will make nary a blip in its pulse. Millions would have to find an alternative that may not exist for something so remarkably unprecedented in modern history to occur.

It seems there are a lot of either really young, immature people who have finally gotten to an age that politics exists or a lot of people that have finally decided to care enough to do their 'small pond pundit routine' without the benefit of actually knowing anything about what they're talking about. Either way, it reeks of the lemming-like response and lack of reasoned intellect that is repeatedly criticized in the general public and GOP on this very board. I truly & humbly request that anyone who is apt to make sweeping, inane statements of this kind, please, please, please do a little sound reading before vomitting your hare-brained opinions all over the rest of us.

A mind moored in reality is a terrible thing to waste.

Getting back to the original statement, sure the Dems will have problems if they keep to the center and ignore their base for yet another election cycle. They need the minority of the party to effect a national majority and a needed mandate to get anything substantial done. If progressive members of the party see no progress or attempt at progress, they will possibly look elsewhere for other options. It could strengthen a 3rd party that "adopts" these disenfranchised voters and weaken the Dem position, but certainly would not result in the death of the party or anything quite so dire as that.

This place, more & more, is reminding me of Jr. High & early HS with all the invented histrionics.

Perspective, anyone?
**edit for spelling...oops**

[waylon]

32. I think you are correct

That is the probably the hardest to swallow, and most overlooked fact in this particular election cycle. Although Dean et al were brilliant in organizing through the web, I think it tends to narrowly focus his campaign on the younger crowd. They may turn out to vote, but they dont comprise the whole base, maybe not even half.

Hate to beat a dead horse but Hillary, please run.

[WillyT]

10. Well... I'm ABB To The Bitter End This Time Around, But...

While I support Dean, and while I'm still ABB, if we Dems lose THIS time around, I do not believe that I can go through this self-inflicted massacre again. I will most likely go Independent\Third Party. Or go hiking in New Zealand for what remains of my life!

I've been votin Dem since 1974. (Jerry Brown-CA Gov.) I was 18.

I realize that for many here, this is just another in a couple of hundred years of national elections. But for me, and many others I know both here, and around my neck of the woods, this is NO ORDINARY Presidential election.

It started with the Theft of 2000 (well before that, in fact)... And, well, if you don't know the rest by now...Heaven help us all!!!

[Brian_Expat]

12. I'm in the same camp, Willy

I'm going to find it very, very hard to support Clark if he is the nominee, and I suspect the Clark people feel the same way about Dean. If I feel like Dean was undermined, and the people doing the undermining expect me to "hang around anyway," I'm going to prove them wrong -- especially if they're folks who voted for war or said Dubya's team was just dandy.

And I'm a long-term Democrat. There's not much more betrayal and lack of principle I can stomach from this party. :P

[Alice Franken]

23. I'm ABB To The Bitter End This Time As Well,

but I have voted Nader before.

This time it really is different!

If Bush gets back in, first we try to recall him; then we set up a new 3rd party. Personally, I would like it to be called 'labor' or 'liberal' or 'progressive'. Any other thoughts on names?

Waitjustadarnminute!

We WILL win in 2004, ok?

[WillyT]

30. Right On Alice, Right On Brian !!!

It doesn't have to be Dean, BUT IT CANNOT BE BUSH!!!

If we Dems lose this time, and it's because of our own internal squabbles, then I really can't see what the point of continuing with the Dems would be.

Hillary in '08??? And just how would THAT, be any different then now?

:shrug:

[quinnox]

11. It's possible Dean will run as third party candidate in 2008

Should Dean win the nomination and lose, or lose the nomination, I suspect he will try a third party run in 2008.

Nader will have some competition next time. But I doubt Dean will get anything more than Nader numbers, maybe 2% or so.

[MercutioATC]

13. It's possible that monkeys will fly out of my ass in 2008.

...and no, I'm not looking forward to the experience.

Just thought I'd post a response as relevant as yours, Quinnox. There are NO indications that Dean will run in 2008 as a third-party candidate and there are NO indications that Dean supporters will desert the Democratic party if Dean isn't nominated. This is just another of your asinine, inflammatory posts, and it should be ignored.

[quinnox]

14. I was responding to the initial post

I'm not the one who brought up the subject of a third party movement involving Dean.

[MercutioATC]

15. Well, I was responding to YOUR post that said THIS:

"Should Dean win the nomination and lose, or lose the nomination, I suspect he will try a third party run in 2008."

You might not have brought it up, but you supported it. Aside from Dean's comment that some of his supporters might not support just ANY Dem candidate, what evidence do you have that Dean would seek a 3rd party nomination in 2008?

[mouse7]

28. No,if Dean loses, probably run for Jeffords seat whem he retires

If Dean loses, he'll run for the Senate when Jeffords retires. Jeffords is almost 70.

[Dookus]

16. good...

the democratic party will be better off without the spiteful, blackmailing NBD crowd.

on edit:

Oh, and we'll survive the loss of a few dozen votes.

[xultar]

17. My predictions and .03 cents change...

Dean will win the nomination
Dean will lose the GE
Dean will become the new leader of the Dem party

A new "progressive party" will become more established.

The Grean party will become more entrenched because a large population of the Dean supporters will find out he's not as "liberal" as they thought and move Green.

[AntiCoup2K4]

18. If Dean is not the nominee, and the Dems lose...

There will be no third parties, or even second parties, in 2008. Just "pResident for Life" Junior and global corporate fascism :scared:

[Dookus]

19. and if Dean *IS* the nominee...

and the Dems lose... what's different?

Plus, I disagree with your premise. I don't think American democracy is going away if Bush wins. That kind of hyperbole is something I outgrew after witnessing Reagan and Bush for 12 years, followed by the best president of the later 20th century.

[Alice Franken]

24. I think that

Dookus ain't just talking out her ass!

[AntiCoup2K4]

38. Reagan and Poppy didn't have the other 2 branches of government.

...Nor did they have 90% of the media spinning lies for them. Nor did they have massive corporate deregulation of the kind which exists today. Nor did they have systems like Diebold with which a national election could be outright stolen and made to appear "legit" to those who refuse to question. And worst of all, they didn't have the "leadership" of the opposition party willingly kissing their asses. You think Reagan could have gotten a 95% yes vote on something as sickening as the "Patriot Act"??

This is not the same world as 1984. Things have gotten much much darker since then, and if you can't see that then I would suggest a visit to the eye doctor.

[Dookus]

39. We've survived bad administrations before...

we'll survive this. I still have some degree of faith in my country.

[WillyT]

48. Be Very Careful When You SayThat !!!

YOU'VE survived bad administrations before.

I'VE survived bad administrations before.

But there are a lot of folks locked up in prison on nonviolent charges for way too long because we had to 'get tough on crime' to get elected. There are probably innocent people who got the needle of death for the same reason. There are people who froze to death in Northern cities during the winter because 'they were too lazy too find a job'. There have been old people, people who built this country and fought in its wars, who have had their heat turned off during winter because they couldn't pay their bills, have been forced to eat cat food to survive, who have to choose between medicine and rent. There have been minorities, and women, and gays, and the handicapped, and a whole host of other bright souls who have been diminished or extinguished during these 'bad administrations'.

Please, for the love of humanity, BE CAREFUL WHEN YOU SAY...

WE have survived bad administrations before!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:mad:

[WillyT]

20. Kick !!!

:kick:

[knight_of_the_star]

29. If we lose in '04

Expect the California Secessionist Party to explode in numbers and try to get us the hell out of this country.

[takebackthewh]

31. Oh yeah

That'll really get us into the WH.

:eyes:

[cryofan]

33. A fiscally liberal, low-immigration, anti-globalization 3rd party would...

....dominate the Democratic and Republican parties. There would be at least 5 million people interested in donating small amounts to such a party. You could get $50 Million for a campaign that way.

The problem is that you need a highly visible or highly credible frontsperson(s) for such a party in order to bootstrap the initial media propaganda for it. And of course you would need several million dollars for that initial bootstrapping....

Such a party would be for making the tax rates much more progressive (i,e., taxing rich people and high income earners more); also would have a plan for universal healthcare, wider access to welfare and unemployment funds for a greater range of people, and other fiscally liberal social spending. This new party would de-emphasize race-based social spending and social programs (i.e., affirmative action, etc) in favor of making social safety net programs available for all races based on income (this is already somewhat the case, but the new party would come right out and make that a goal). More time off for all workers would be a major plank as well.

and they would be in favor of much stricter enforcement of illegal immigration and for lower legal immigration, and also for ending white collar visas (h1b and L1 visas). They would also be for slowing down "free" trade in favor or fair trade.

This party would, I predict, wipe up the floor with the Democratic and GOP parties.

[ErasureAcer]

34. If Dean is the nominee

look for a 3rd party movement...I'll be leading the way.

[cryofan]

36. The Green Party IS the major 3rd party in the USA

see you at the meeting if DEan is the Dems nominee.....

[ErasureAcer]

52. I should go to the convention

It's in Milwaukee...I'm in Saint Paul.

[stickdog]

40. No. We are Democrats. We want to stay Democrats. We just want our

party and our country back.

[Gloria]

41. Isn't Dean already doing the third party thing?? I mean, he's not

a Republican (I guess) and he's a self-proclaimed "outsider" among Democrats, so in effect, isn't he doing a "third party" sort of thing in the primaries?

It's a posturing which is designed to mask the fact that he's probably less liberal than some of the other candidates.

But posturing leads to inconsistencies and overcompensating, which I'm sure the Rove machine will gladly point out to us in the general election.

[ozone_man]

45. It seems like a 3rd party,

but really it's just the Democratic Party of old, not the Clinton right wing party. Dean is an old fashioned Democrat, but includes new thinking to the party. I believe in evolution and I hold out great hopes that we can reshape the old Democratic party, so that we won't need a 3rd party.

If Dean does not make it in to office, then it very well could lead to a 3rd party, because the present path is a collision course with the Republican party.

[Gloria]

49. Dean is an "old-fashioned" Democrat???

Really? What does that mean? Old-fashioned Democrats were all centrists?

Please explain this. I want to know how Dean is an "old-fashioned" Democrat at the same time he is "new?"

This is just getting too ridiculous. Wake me when it's over.

[ozone_man]

53. A New Deal Democrat closer to FDR than Clinton.

Clinton is the DLC, the New Democrats, closer to Republicans in my opinion. The new ideas that Dean has are the evolution that I was referring to. Some of these new ideas are really old ideas made appropriate for the modern era.

The Social Security and Medicare programs established in the New Deal are in great jeopardy due to massive deficit spending. Dean wants to reign that, realizing the great threat. Anyway, I say he is an old fashioned Democrat with Vermont Yankee common sense that he has acquired over the past 25 years, and he is using both old and new ideas to reshape the Democratic party.

[molly]

46. Goodbye to bad DEMS!

if Dean isn't the nominee - too bad and good riddance to ya!

[Forkboy]

50. A uniter till the end!

[dogman]

51. It's all in the math

Unless the center breaks out no third party will be successful. The Rs are smart enough to hold their moderates close. We have to capture more of their moderates to come up with the super majority required by the SCOTUS to win an election.