Don't even fret about Florida.. since 1968 it's gone dem

[SoCalDem]

TWICE ..1976 & 1996


so all the Sturm und Drang about Florida is just nonsense..

We don't routinely win there..and even when we "do", we don't :(


I'm not saying to just cede it over willingly, but there's no need to get all bent out of shape about the "we better get a re-do, or we'll let McCain have it" stuff.. Mc cain's likely to get it anyway

http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida

[lligrd]

1. Agreed. Floridians Need To Clean Up Their Own Politics

before I fight to count their votes anywhere.

[MonkeyFunk]

2. ah, it's all part of Dean's

48-state strategy.

[SoCalDem]

3. and Ohio...?? only 3 times since 1968

[better tomorrow]

4. yeah, but we've voted in two Repub. Governors.....

and one was a Bush....

[ossman]

6. At least this one is a gay Republican. Closeted, but progress!

[better tomorrow]

8. that must be Jeb.....

:rofl:

[LulaMay]

5. Hillary got 300,000 more votes, total overall, than McCain! Taking FLfor granted is not smart.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. That's not the way to look at it

Florida is a very vital state that absolutely is within reach. And winning its 26 electoral votes is worth the same as Colorado (8), Iowa (7) and Missouri (11) combined.

I'll continue to assert the ludicrous nature of emphasizing math in Obama's favor regarding delegate relationship to Hillary, yet being content to ignore mathematical realities if our nominee has demographic vulnerability in Florida and Ohio. Those are the trump card states, the ones that avoid the necessity of a straight flush of lesser populated states to reach 270.

Here is Florida's partisan index chart, the relationship between statewide vote and national margin:

Florida:
'88: Bush (60.87 - 38.51) = + 14.64% Republican
'92: Bush (40.89 - 39.00) = + 7.45% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.02 - 42.32) = + 2.83% Republican
'00: Bush* (48.85 - 48.84) = + 0.52% Republican
* (my estimated adjustment, after elongated analysis and plenty of admitted guesswork, is Gore 49.18 - Bush 48.53 = + 0.14% Democrat)

Note the trend in our favor. Bush 41 carried Florida in '92 only because it was still a heavily red state, 7+ points more GOP leaning than the nation as a whole. But the state has steadily become more balanced. My 2004 number is missing from this chart (my political math is in Las Vegas while I'm stuck in Miami) but it was about +2.5 Republican, since Bush carried the state by about 5 points while winning nationally by roughly 2.5. Someone may have the specific number but +2.5 red is certainly ballpark.

And you damn sure don't give up on a critical state with only a 2.5 point unfriendly nature. Theoretically, if our nominee leads the national polling by 2.5 points we should be virtually even in Florida. Besides, the Florida economy was much better than the national economy in '04, accounting for Bush's margin in the state, along with Republican registration emphasis in Florida post-2000. We did not defeat them in new registers from 2000 to 2004. It was virtually even.

I know, voting machines. Another way to dismiss a topic if it becomes uncomfy.

In a pro-Democratic year like '08 Florida will absolutely be in play. Obviously I believe Hillary is the superior vehicle toward those 26 electoral votes. The demographics favor her above Obama. In 2004 Betty Castor ran several points better against Martinez than Kerry managed vs. Bush. If you check the exit polls, the difference was white women. They backed Castor and Martinez evenly at 49%, but in the presidential race Bush wiped out Kerry among white women, 56-43.

The Obama hoopla is swell but we're ignoring fundamental math in too many states. I'm a Miami native and have been here steadily since December 13. Hillary can win here but Obama would be running straight uphill, even at sea level.

[Birthmark]

9. Let's see...

We've had *two* Democratic Presidents since 1968. One elected in...well, 1976. The other elected in 1992...and re-elected in 1996. So in two of the three elections that a Democrat was elected, the Dems carried FL.

Of course, the reverse of that is that every time but one when the Democrat *lost* FL, they lost the election.

[glowing]

10. Note to most: The people who do the leg work and put their hearts into

this are fading away. Maybe its just the oldies that are tired, but many progressive foot soldiers don't seem to have the energy to fight the good old fight. Many I know will not work for the Presidential nominee whoever it is that is left. They'll hang their hat on a progressive in local races if there are any to be had, and most have returned to the cause that most impassions them when its not a magical election year. The war, homeless, and regular injustices. Its a sloppy mess of progressives dotted along suburbia hell. The gas prices, living costs, and lack of any jobs is making it harder for all of us. I'm already watching my house of cards fall onto a ugly little pile on the floor. Municipalities are cutting back services, the state is cutting programs, and the cops are handing out record amounts of traffic violations to keep their numbers from being cut.

Meanwhile the Gay Gov., who ran a campaign on insurance and property tax reform, is running around hanging on the coatails of McCain hoping for a AG or VP nod. Seems rather ludicrous now that the man ran against Davis with commercial after commercial about Davis and his empty seat. Guess its becoming quite impossible for Crist to even continue lying for his predecessor. Thank God at the last minute a third party candidate was invited to a debate and made a really close election tighter. By the way, the election results for Gov of FL were disputed, but of course, that didn't make any news at all.

Anyway, don't count on Florida for much. The state is in a Recession. Most people who can leave are going. I'd be gone if it wasn't for my step-son. Everything that was done on a National level was tried first here in FL. We now have one of the worst educational programs in the nation. Free-market is tried and true.. and its broke. Interns turn up dead, cocaine is smuggled onto little tiny airstrips with markings that would make one think that Air Force One had just landed. AND guess where ole' Bush was when 9/11 happened? Sitting in his Brother's state reading My Pet Goat.

I applaud anyone who still has any hope left for turning things around with Fiddle Dee or Fiddle Dum. As much as GD:P disgusts me, its great to see anyone with hard core passion left. I know I've become jaded. The whole system is a fraud and manipulated. The 1% is herding the cattle.. everything is designed to keep people in slavery. America is enslaved with debt. Other's are enslaved into wars, poverty, and other atrocious injustices. AND where are these top 1% hiding, on their compounds, behind thick gates and massive amounts of security. The greatest thing this world could do for itself is to stop.. stop working, stop moving, stop fighting, stop lying, stop cheating, JUST STOP... Its so silly to run around, doing things we hate, for a peice of paper someone has told you has worth.

[JoFerret]

11. But it won't with Obama as nominee

and the GOP hammering at his character, background, patriotism, loyalty, trustworthiness all courtesy of Wright.

[slampoet]

12. Two times since 68? We have only won Three Times since 68.

Sounds like you are proving it is Crucial.