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Violence is on the rise again in Iraq and we have yet to see any real political progress there. The economy is in dire shape, and could get much worse in the next few months. McCain is tied to Bush on the war and the economy, the only area he has any daylight between Bush and him is on social issues. That basically covers the 3 meta-issues of any presidential campaign, McCain will be losing the economy and national security debate and will not have strong backing on social issues. It would seem to foretell a landslide victory for the Democrats, especially after the initial excitement and high voter turnout among Democrats in the primaries. But predictable results are not good for ratings, the MSM needs a close race. So they will do their best to make one. The media wants the story to be basically that the Democrats should be unbeatable, but will lose because they are divided. In many ways both campaigns are playing into this narrative, but I am not sure if they have much of a choice. Clinton is too far behind now to be truly ahead of Obama before the convention, and unless Obama returns to winning the way he did in late February, Clinton will be too close to drop out. Even if Obama has enough superdelegate endorsements to give him a majority of convention delegates, I believe Clinton will continue to lobby for them to switch to her side. No matter what happens at or after the convention, if the nomination is not settled until then, we will come out of it more divided than united.
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