FL: Clinton in stat. dead heat (-4) with McCain. Obama loses badly getting only 60% of the DEM vote

[jackson_dem]

Overall

McCain 47, Hill 43
McCain 50, Obama 39

The crosstabs are scary--especially with Obama, who looks increasingly like he will fracture the party if nominating (so much for being able to unite...).

Obama's problems

While Clinton wins the Democratic vote 74-10, Obama wins it only 60-25. That is a net difference of a whopping 29 points. This is consistent with other national polling that shows the evidently "polarizing" Obama fracturing the party. Obama gets a mere 31% of the white vote. He loses Latinos by 11 while Clinton ties. Obama gets only 35% of "other", presumably primarily Asian voters. On age Obama only ties among voters 18-29 and gets a scant 33% of senior citizens. The latter are a key group everywhere since they turnout at high rates but they are especially important in Florida.

For all the media/Obama machine hype about "Obamacons" this is yet another poll that shows Obama getting basically as much rethug support as Clinton. He wins 13% of the rethug vote, Clinton wins 10%. The 3% is within the margin of error and is definitely not worth coughing up 29 points among Democrats. He does do 10% better among indies, but even there he gets only 36% and that 10 point advantage should decline--and is declining--as he gets vetted.

Clinton's problem

In Florida Obama's swiftboating of the Clintons on race has done great damage. She wins blacks only 51-13 while Obama does 81-9. We will have to see if this is a trend. In the Pew nationall poll she still wins 93% of black Dems and 86% of blacks overall against McCain.

Issues

Clinton beats McCain by 4 on the war while Obama loses by 10. What explains this 14 point difference when they have the same Iraq position, the fairy tale notwithstanding? One word: experience. Many folks, even some who like him, simply do not believe Obama is ready to be president. Clinton trounces McCain by 14 on the economy while Obama beats him by only 3 on that measure. This advantage is likely due primarily to Clinton's association with the prosperous 8 years under Bill Clinton. Obama has no economic record or association. McCain wins big on taxes and "moral values". No surprise there. I was surprised to see Obama, who is running arguably the most religious Democratic presidential campaign since Jimmy Carter, does only four points better than Clinton on this issue. McCain wins big on immigration and that is surprising since his immigration views are very similar to both Clinton and Obama's. This is probably a reflection of party id and the rethug association with being "tough" on immigration, not because of McCain. On health care both Democratic candidates win by more than 2:1. Both candidates win on education but Obama wins by substantially more (59-33 versus 45-33). This on the face of it seems odd. What record does Obama have on education? He has none, unlike Clinton. However he has education policies that if proposed by any Democrat other than St. Obama would be termed "DINO" or "rethug lite". Since his "pay for performance" and being "open" to privatizing education were popular views in Florida when progressive icon Jeb Bush stood for them it is no surprise Obama benefits on the issue in this state.

The issues look good for us with Clinton. She wins on Iraq, wins comfortably on the economy, and beats McCain 50-21 on health care. These are likely to be the three biggest issues (probably with the economy #1, Iraq #2, and health care #3) of the election. She also wins on education, although that will be a minor issue again. Where she loses we expect to lose. Obama is problematic. He is essentially tied with McCain on the economy and loses by double digits on Iraq. It is obviously very difficult to win if you are Democrat unless you can win on both issues. He should be able to improve on the economy if nominated but he can't take How to be President 101 over the summer...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Florida_Release_031808.pdf

[book_worm]

1. Another recent FL poll shows the opposite

Obama running better than Hillary 47-43 against McCain while its 47-40 Hillary vs. McCain
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election

Of course you are going by PPP with all your poll stuff today and I'm going by Rasmussen.

[jackson_dem]

2. Anyone can cherry pick polls. The average is Obama does worse

The average is he does 4 points worse and that doesn't takes into account polls going as far back as February. The trend is clear: Obama's electability is slipping fast as folks learn more about him and he gets some bad press.

I am going by PPP simply because their stuff just came out today and yesterday. Rasmussen, which shows Obama's net favorability ratings tanked by 17% in less than a month, is a week old.

[Citizen Kang]

4. and what exactly are you doing?

cherry picking this poll?

[jackson_dem]

5. Posting the latest poll that just came out

The fact is only Obamites need to cherry pick these days because his electability is tanking.

[Yes We Did]

16. Don't feed his fire.

You know the kind of garbage this...thing spews, and you know not to even read it's bullshit.

[Forkboy]

26. "Anyone can cherry pick polls."

Jackson Dem 3-19-08

[hughee99]

3. Since neither was allowed to campaign in Florida

How valid are these numbers? Would they be the same in a GE after Clinton or Obama are given a better chance to make their case more directly to the voters?

[jackson_dem]

6. The main point is Clinton does 7 points better than Obama

Both candidates will catch McCain a bit when the primaries end and Dems start attacking him but Obama starts at a bigger deficit than Clinton in key states like Florida, Ohio, and Penn.

[rodeodance]

7. yes, Hillary does better on the imp. issues.

[rodeodance]

8. The Dems need FL to win the WH!

[Texas Hill Country]

17. and if they dont seat the delegates, why should FL ever vote Dem... STUPID STUPID STUPID

[pointsoflight]

9. Irrelevant. He has never campaigned there.

[jackson_dem]

11. Neither has Clinton

[pointsoflight]

21. She is well known and has the name recognition.

[jackson_dem]

24. 97% isn't? It was probably 99% in FL since he ran ads there

[pointsoflight]

28. Forget it, you're clearly not interested in reasonable debate and discussion.

[jackson_dem]

38. I put facts. It is reasonable to argue facts, not myths. Obama had 97% name id at the time

[RockaFowler]

12. How is it irrelevant?

We get CNN, MSNBC, Faux News, etc. We see what each candidate stands for. Oh yeah and Obama did air a commercial in Florida. Even if people want to dismiss that because it was a National Ad, he still did it.

[pointsoflight]

22. Irrelevant because we don't know how much Floridians would like him...

...if he campaigned there. There are numerous states in which he started out with low numbers, even lower than Florida, but then as he campaigned there, the numbers went way up and in many cases he even won. Do you deny that?

[qnr]

14. I see. Florida exists in a vacuum. n/t

[pointsoflight]

27. What? Your post makes no sense. I did NOT say Florida is irrelevant.

I said Obama's polling numbers in Florida are irrelevant. They're irrelevant because Floridians don't know him. He's never campaigned there. In other states, his numbers started out quite low and rose as much as 30 points in just a few weeks with campaigning. There is no basis for saying his numbers now, with no campaigning, reflect where they'd be if he did campaign there.

Do you deny that campaigning has dramatically changed his numbers in other states, including states THIS MONTH like Texas? Why, then, would Florida be different?

[qnr]

29. Sorry. Florida doesn't exist in a vacuum. Not my fault if you don't understand such

a simple concept.

[nickn777]

10. YUP. Florida and Ohio are FUCKING OUT if we nominate Obama. n/t

[Texas Hill Country]

18. Dont forget that Michigan will become battleground... Ridiculous.

[Upton]

13. Clinton will never regain the black vote

your poll says "bad feelings" appear to driving down the numbers. Do you honestly think blacks are going to flock to the polls to vote for HRC? Particularly if she's chosen over Obama by party insiders? You're kidding yourself.

[Texas Hill Country]

20. it is SHAMEFUL that the Clintons have been painted as racist. SHAMEFUL.

[judaspriestess]

15. Kick

[stevietheman]

19. This is Obama's Time. Enough with the primary -- time to get on with the General. n/t

n/t

[qnr]

30. You're right. It's Obama's time. To finally be vetted, and it's not working out well for him n/t

[kikiek]

23. Thanks for the update. Your poll is most recent so it is relevent.

[LordJFT]

25. nice cherry-picking but if you look at the averages they both get crushed

[PaDem]

31. Remind me why we're worried about Florida?

For the life of me I can't figure out why Florida keeps coming up on this forum as a critical state in '08. We aren't winning Florida in 2008 regardless of the nominee. No way no how.

[LordJFT]

32. and we don't need to

we can win ohio, colorado, iowa and new mexico

[PaDem]

40. agreed. VA is a possibility as well.

thought I think Ohio is a tough, uphill battle.

[LordJFT]

41. pollster.com still has obama leading and that's taking into account multiple polls

its certainly not a guarantee but chances look good if votes don't get stolen again

[Mezzo]

33. There's always hope. nt

[theredpen]

34. This is "pre-speech" data

That was so last week. ;)

We'll see what the numbers look like in next week's polls. There is no support for predictions. The situation is volitile.

[totodeinhere]

35. The OP only posts polls that show Clinton ahead.

They never post any polls showing Obama ahead. This obvious bias is disgusting.

[Barack_America]

37. That's what happens when you use Hillaryis44 as a credible source of information.

:eyes:

[Barack_America]

36. Both will lose Florida to McCain.

Accept that as fact and move on.

The big question is who can win Midwestern swing states over McCain. The answer is NOT Hillary Clinton.

[Alexander]

39. Haven't we learned to forget about trying to win Florida?

The corruption and vote-stealing means that no Democrat will win there in the near future. We need to quit wasting time on a state where we can't win due to electoral fraud. Gore and Kerry both spent millions on Florida, and what did it get them?

I like the 50-state strategy but the vote caging, Jim Crow, and Democrats teaming up with Republicans there means that Florida is a very *special* case.