3/22/08 USA Today - GALLUP Poll Shows Obama ahead of Clinton as does RASMUSSEN!

[FrenchieCat]

Some folks keep posting the same Rasmussen poll in thread after thread. This outfit is not reliable, so take it with a grain of salt! It was posting a 4 day average which would have the lower numbers from prior to Friday...when Obama showed his biggest gain. Meanwhile Gallup has a 3 days average which would exclude the lower polling done on Obama. The Gallup sample is larger and has a lower margin of error.

Daily Rasmussen Graph shows Obama leading Hillary Clinton on 3/21 45% to 44%. That's the last day of the tracking poll, but the 4 day average is what keeps Clinton in the lead.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

Gallup: Obama recaptures edge over Clinton

Gallup reports:
Barack Obama has quickly made up the deficit he faced with Hillary Clinton earlier this week, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on Democratic presidential nomination preferences showing 48% of Democratic voters favoring Obama and 45% Clinton.

Obama fell behind Clinton on March 14 and stayed there until today. "Obama's campaign clearly suffered in recent days from negative press, mostly centering around his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright," wrote Gallup analyst Jeff Jones. "But Obama has now edged back ahead of Clinton due to a strong showing for him in Friday night's polling, perhaps in response to the endorsement he received from well-respected New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson."

The Gallup tracking poll is based on interviews with 1,264 Democratic or Democrat-leaning voters March 19-21. Its margin of error is +/-3 percentage points.

A tracking poll by Rasmussen Reports has shown a different trajectory. In that poll, Obama clung to leads of 1 to 5 percentage points all week and fell behind Clinton for the first time today, 46%-44%.

Rasmussen calculations are based on four nights of polling, compared to Gallup's three.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/polls/index.html

Rasmussen? You mean the Republican "talking point" poll.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2007/08/edwards_and_obama_camps_both_pushing_hillaryispolarizing_line.php

Rasmussen poll: Obama soars to a 10-point lead. NH Primary
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Rasmussen+poll%3A+Obama+soars+to+a+10-point+lead&articleId=e81b58c5-ec9a-415e-9b46-89d5bbf36eb2

Rasmussen Reports, whose polls consistently place George Bush's approval rating higher than other polls, published the first poll on impeaching Bush and removing him from office. Rasmussen found that 32% of Americans want President Bush impeached and removed, while 35% want Vice President Dick Cheney impeached and removed.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/?q=node/5596

Thus Rasmussen is increasingly oversampling the dwindling number of "Republicans" in their poll, causing the net support for Bush in the final tally to RISE - even as the real support for Bush among the population falls.

Based on this, I predict that Rasmussen is going to go down flaming in the next nationwide election, as the built in instability in their polling method finally turns around to bite them in the ass.http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/11/12/101416/07

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Princeton's Gallup Poll is more reliable!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105529/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Edges-Ahead-Clinton.aspx


The Gallup Organization (Princeton, NJ, USA) is the oldest, most accepted and probably the biggest management consulting, polling and market research company. Gallup's core expertise is in measuring and understanding human attitudes and behavior.
http://www.gallup.hu/english.htm

[FrenchieCat]

1. Remember that the Rasmussen Poll is to always be doubted......

When there is a citing of a poll, go look at behind the numbers, because sometimes it is tricky. Since some outfits include more days in their polls than others, that factor can skew the results....making someone losing when the last days are looked at alone, but winning a poll when more days are averaged. Also, Rasmussen appears to lag in trends when compared to Gallup.

[David Dunham]

2. But Rasmussen also has McCain trouncing Obama 49% to 41% in the general election

Obama is likely going to lose to McCain if he is nominated.

[FrenchieCat]

3. Why is that?

He won't lose. Hillary made the same mistake you did; underestimated Obama...which is why she is where she is today; in second place with a 10% change of winning. and don't forget about the Veeps choices......and in this case, Obama's Veep pick will make a difference. Plus, when Obama becomes the focus based on what he actually says as opposed to what Hillary Clinton says about him, he will skyrocket as people get to know him better, as opposed to what is said about him.

Plus, McCain is on his "foreign" policy trip getting positive coverage even as he fucks up, while Hillary the liar (story of her documented videotaped lie has not quite hit yet) tears at Obama while he is still recovering from guilt by association attacks.

With all of her advantages (that she had), if Hillary can't win the primaries, then she can't win the General Election.

Oh yeah; and she's broke.

Obama's doing damn well considering.

[dchill]

4. Also, I think the media are sitting on some...

major bad news for McCain - FEC problems, lobbyist problems, truth-mangling problems - just saving them for later when they'll have more "newsworthiness." The Obama-McCain polls of this minute are just meaningless.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Yep.......plus McCain is dollar limited.......and will take public financing.....

Obama will have to get out of that one, and I'm sure that he can.

[Umbram]

5. The GE is next week? We have a lot of work to do! (nt)

[loveangelc]

6. k

rasmussen seems to fudge things according to agenda when it comes to approval/disapproval ratings imo.

there's a reason republicans write articles on his website and he's always on fox news.

[upi402]

7. ZOGBY: McCain beats Hillary and Obama

"Survey finds McCain would defeat both Obama and Clinton in latest prospective General Election match-ups"

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1470

[FrenchieCat]

8. As long as she gets her ass out of the race......

we can fix what ails Obama.....if he can ever get center stage.

Wait till veep pick.
Wait till McCain's history comes out.

the poll you cite only shows the damage that Hillary is doing to Obama, and how ugly she looks doing it.

[SoCalDem]

11. Zogby admitted on C-span, that sometimes they don't know that the hell they're doing

and he's been wrong many many times..as they all have..

Polls are not very reliable these days..any of them

[FrenchieCat]

12. That's true.....with Rasmussen giving Obama NH by 10 points......

you are correct.

[quantass]

9. .

[quantass]

10. MCain has tons of crow in the closet

[FrenchieCat]

14. and is a gaffe a minute......

[Norrin Radd]

15. kr