newest ARG tracking poll of NH. Kerry losing a point a day

[CMT]

Here is the latest ARG tracking poll of New Hampshire. This is the fifth straight day and the trend for John Kerry is not good. He has lost a point each day.

Here are the latest:
Dean: 37% (same as every other day)
Kerry: 15% (Was at 19% on first day--lost 1-point each day)
Clark 13% (was at 12% on first day of tracking poll)
Lieberman 6% (no change)
Gephardt: 5% (down from 6% yesterday)
Edwards 3% (down from 4% yesterday)

Undecided has climbed from 16% yesterday to 19% today.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

The analysis of the results for Kerry is that it cooincides with a ad the Kerry campaign released about not sending American kids to Iraq to fight for oil. Women, in particular, turned off of Kerry due to this ad because, "Kerry voted to send them to Iraq."

When the tracking poll began Dean was leading Kerry among women by 39-23, now it is a 41-16 point lead for Kerry.

[Walt Starr]

1. Damn!

I may have to donate to the Kerry campaign, I want him to beat Clark in New Hampshire!

[Renew Deal]

4. Too late now

No amount of money is going to make a difference in NH now. Besides that, Lieberman is blowing $4 Million there. That is a lame enough attempt.

[SheilaT]

2. I wonder what the margin of error is. n/t

[HFishbine]

6. 4%

And all the movement since the tracking poll began has been within the MOE.

[ignatiusr]

3. Interesting numbers among women

That's obviously Clark's weakest point. He's preferred by 20% of men but only 6% of women. This helps to explain his newest ad to be aired in NH, with the black female army major praising him and talking about how sensitive he is to women.

[Renew Deal]

5. You know what's interesting...

The undeclared number. If that percentage is higher or lower than the percentage polled it will sway the vote.

[BootinUp]

7. Thats awesome

Clark second among men. We are making good progress me thinks.

[CMT]

9. doing pretty well with men, but big gender gap with women

Currently he has 20% and is in second place among men but is attracting only 6% of women with no change since tracking poll began. A 14-point gender gap between men/women.

On the other hand Dean has a bit of a gender gap too. He is attracting 41% of women and 32% of men. An 8-point gender gap between women/men.

[BootinUp]

10. Yes interesting

What issues are driving that do you think?

Is it mainly the war issue?

[CMT]

14. this is my take on it

Clark does better with men than with women due to the military image. Men seem to relate more to that than women.

[unfrigginreal]

8. Anyone have a link for the Kerry ad?

The drop coincides with Kerry's extensive use of a television spot in New Hampshire featuring children playing outdoors while Kerry delivers a message about not sending children to war for oil.

It's unbelievable that he doesn't realize what a political opportunist he is coming off as. Maybe it's time to look at some of his other "principled" stands over the years.

[virtualobserver]

12. it is pretty funny that they were voting for him until he brought it up...

He essentially mortgaged his house to air an attack ad against himself.

[wtmusic]

17. It upped the HL (Hypocrisy Level) to orange

primary voters use extreme caution!

:silly:

[polpilot]

25. looks red to me.

Dean '04...

[tsipple]

11. Just Want to Point Out Something Here...

1. Undecides tend to break with the leader. Not a guarantee, but it does often happen.

2. If a candidate fails to get at least 15% of the vote, there are no delegates awarded.

[virtualobserver]

13. it is also likely to break in the direction of the winner in IOWA

If Dean wins there, the dominos begin to fall.

[CMT]

15. true

yesterday in the ARG polling report it mentioned that after Gep won Iowa in '88 he gained 8-points in the tracking poll in NH and on primary day he got 22% of the NH vote coming in second to Dukakis who had 35%. So Gephardt initially only polled 3% in Iowa and ended up coming in second with 22% on primary day--a 19-point swing. IF Dean wins Iowa I can see him getting between 45-50 percent of the NH primary vote.

[JI7]

16. i still hope Kerry can improve

still hoping Kerry will improve.

[jumptheshadow]

18. What is truly stunning about this poll

There were zero votes for either of the black candidates.

No, that's not surprising about New Hampshire. But it sure highlights the weaknesses of the Democratic primary process when voters who are casting 100 percent of their ballots for white candidates play such an important role in deciding the nomination.

If we, as Democrats, are interested in energizing "the base" then we should start by giving a more substantial voice to the most loyal Democrats of them all -- black voters.

[BootinUp]

19. I'll agree with that n/t

[CMT]

20. that is an interesting finding

I agree with that.

[LiberalEconomist]

21. Perhaps New Hampshire

is not much of a "bell-weather" state afterall. If the NH primary is to reflect what is to come, then the absence of support for our African American candidates ought to be a concern. Then again, it could be that neither CMB or Sharpton do much to motivate the NH voter, regardless of race. It is my opinion, however, that the importance of NH is a myth held together by inertia. How can a state with a largely homogenous population reflect the voting preferences of Democratic voters? Afterall, Democratic voters represent the variety and diversity in this country. No, it more likely that what happens in New Hampshire ought to reflect the sentiments of the GOP.

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. It also says lot about the quality of the blacks that are running

The African-Americans that are running for President are hardly the cream of the crop. There are a lot of African-Americans that are head and shoulders above these two.

[CMT]

23. that's true too

Jesse Jackson did much better than 0 in NH. I'm surprised CMB isn't registering somewhat better though.

[jumptheshadow]

24. That's a good point

However, if you polled the same number people in my fiercely Democratic borough, Brooklyn, you would be guaranteed to find deeply committed support for the black candidates. And it would come from people who have been lifelong Democrats and have voted for nobody except Democrats. Where is their voice?

The same thing is true for many neighborhoods across the country, where loyal Democratic voters have essentially been gerrymanded out of representation in the primaries.

We need these votes. How do we energize the base when we may deny large parts of it a voice in the political process?

[stickdog]

26. The DLC has sent Kerry, Lieberman & Gephardt on a suicide "Stop Dean"

mission.

Forward he cried from the rear
and the front rank died.
And the General sat and the lines on the map
moved from side to side.