Surge in PA registration looks good for Obama; has a chance to pull off an upset

[TeamJordan23]

Although the final numbers are not yet in, so far registration has swelled 84,801 since the 2006 elections — that's 11 percent of the 790,000 people who voted in the 2004 Democratic primary. Last week alone 50,347 people became Democratic voters, according to Pennsylvania's State Department, bringing the state party's total to over 4 million for the first time ever. Since the beginning of the year, 86,711 Republicans and independents have switched affiliations, and in just the last three weeks 34,104 new voters registered as Democrats.

Significantly, 64 percent of those who changed parties were in the 12 largest counties — urban areas that have large African-American and educated white populations, demographics that are Obama's strength. "I think he has a chance to pull off an upset here," said Ray Owen, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. "The rates of changes in registration and new registrations indicate that some independents are joining the new voters in registering Democratic."

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1725397,00.html

[democrattotheend]

1. He's not going to win PA

The registration data is encouraging, but I was up there last weekend and even the staff at the campaign HQ admit that he's not going to win there. Let's not start upping the ante by letting people believe otherwise.

[anonymous171]

3. Correct, but he needs to avoid a Clinton blow-out

Or else she will claim some BS Mandate to go on until the election. If he makes it within 10% the media's narrative will be disrupted.

[JimGinPA]

5. It's Very Unlikely He'll Win, But Not Impossible...

I think now there will be less than a 10 delegate difference between them in PA. We have done better than expected in our registrations and for the next four weeks we'll be working to GOTV. We'll have to wait and see.

[roguevalley]

32. she's supposed to be ahead so far in this state -its a big one don't

you know- and if she wins be even a smaller margin its a bad thing. People will find it hard to take her using soldiers in Bosnia to gin up her 'experience' in this state because they've lost a lot of soldiers

[monmouth]

2. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won by PA by a good margin..n/t

[olkaz]

7. Basing that on anything concrete?

All I've heard for weeks is that Pennsylvania is a Clinton lock and that just keeping it close is a victory for Obama.

But winning?

[TwilightGardener]

4. I doubt he'll win PA, but he'll make it closer than the polls are now--

I have family there who have changed their minds recently and decided to support him, even though they have always liked the Clintons. That's a good sign.

[billbuckhead]

6. Once again Hillary's soullesss opponent looks to Republicans for help

[GarbagemanLB]

8. I'm sorry...did Obama or Michelle go on Rush before TX/Ohio? OH WAIT! That was BILL!!

[creeksneakers2]

45. That isn't true

Bill never went on Rush. That misinformation has been debunked.

[Lucky 13]

26. JUSTIFY YOUR STATEMENT... NOW

HILLARY is the one touting McCain's experience
BILL goes on Limbaugh
HILLARY met with SCAIFE

This whole, "Accuse the other side of your own wrongs" thing is getting OLD.

So justify or back up that statement....

[SoonerPride]

36. Now you know why I have that person on Ignore

I no longer see them

[roguevalley]

33. once more you confuse your candidates.

[Pirate Smile]

9. No. Hillary will win Penn - she needs to win by 20+.

[BenDavid]

10. excuse me but a lot happened that was negative obama,

and the loses in ohio, texas, rhode island, and the racist preacher could have made up peoples minds and went and registered and will vote for HRC.

even a dumb peckerhead knows if a man listens to a preacher speak, vile, bile against anything white that person would in many ways be influenced by this preacher. Even so far as having two books written in the 90's bragging on this same racist preacher that he was my mentor, my advisor, etc. etc..

I would say many of those new folks will vote hrc and folks have the answers already as why obama gave a frank talk about race and even ask: When the Duke rape case come up, Obama didn't think we needed to have a "frank talk" about race. When the Jena 6 had that little noose problem in Louisiana, Obama didn't think we needed to have a "frank talk" about race. But when his pastor made the news, Obama thought it was high time we had a "frank talk" about race.uh huh folks know why?

[anonymous171]

14. Hillary's lies are catching up to her.

[JimGinPA]

Funny, Since About 95% Of The New Voters Were Registered By Obama Volunteers

:hi:

[knixphan]

46. exactly what I was thinking....

[BumRushDaShow]

20. For some reason, I have left you off my ignore list. But your vile sputum has gotten worse

as the weeks have progressed. You have ignored all the posts that proved your ad hominem attacks wrong, including this most recent one regarding Jena and Duke U., and you have continued to chose the low road in your discourse.

So hasta la vista baby! :eyes:

[yodermon]

21. why in the bloody fuck would the clintons let a "racist preacher" into their whitehouse

to service willie in his hour of need?

[roguevalley]

34. okay, ben david, name one action that shows he was influenced

by Wright for evil. You can't.

[goclark]

39. Ring, Ring, Ring

No one was sliming him for any of those issues that you mentioned.
If anyone had a problem with it, it should have been African Americans and we showed what we think of him in the Primary.

He didn't dream up the talk about Race, he has enough intelligence to realize that Race needed to be addressed to his supporters and to the world.

He was /is smart enough to know that those that support HCMC would have their eyes wide shut.

He knew that the MSM would keep repeating the same old Retired Minister tape over and over so he was brilliant and wrote his thoughts -- please visit youtube, his speech is being rated one of the top hits of all times.

Oh yes, and there is another one that should be up there -- the one with the little girl getting the flowers and everyone smiling in Bosnia.

I'm off to donate to Barack. I want to be one of the five people to have dinner with him! :bounce: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

Thanks for inspiring me.

Edit: I wanted to give the exact site for the Dinner with Barack Obama!

[roseBudd]

41. "vile, bile against anything white" umm I must have missed the sermon against anything white

[Hawkeye-X]

42. You need to go see your rabbi

and have a frank talk about your insanity, BenDavid.

Hawkeye-X

[malta blue]

11. THIS IS HUGH!!!1!!

[EFerrari]

12. That's really interesting. It would be great to see him do better

than the predictions. With the campaign he's run, he deserves it. :)

[joanski0]

13. I will be voting for Obama on April 22.

So will my brother and sister-in-law, and all his kids and their families. I will be putting out my Obama yard signs very soon.

[FatDave]

15. the polls are all over the place, but the trend is that he's tightening the gap

But not fast enough. Then again, I think he's just starting to campaign in the state, so I wouldn't rule an upset out completely. Definitely a longshot though.

[greyghost]

16. Having been born and raised in PA I have a strong feeling Obama

will do well.

[shomino]

17. I certainly hope this is the case.

We will just have to wait and see... and hope.

Obama '08!!!

[babylonsister]

18. Unless Rush is involved in this 'surge'. I hope not. nt

[Blue_In_AK]

25. I wondered that myself, Sister.

Can we be sure who all these new "Democrats" are?

[babylonsister]

28. No, I don't think we can. Blue. And OT,

:hi: long time, no see!

I read there was an investigation to deal with it, but there wasn't much hope of anything being done.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ari-melber/limbaughs-lying-voters-u_b_93288.html

[Blue_In_AK]

31. Oh, I've been around,

just pretty much avoiding GD: P because I'm a lover, not a fighter. :)

As for Rush, he should be prosecuted for attempting to subvert our political process. People are going to do this kind of thing individually, of course, on their own (we used to sometimes vote for unpopular Republicans up here to confuse things, since the Dems had no power otherwise, back in the days when we had open primaries) but for a public figure like Rush to openly call for this kind of mischief is just wrong.

[AZ Criminal JD]

47. What if that public firgure is Obama? Should he be prosecuted?

"Barack Obama is initiating a program to flip registrations of independent and Republican voters to Democrat." http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9020.html He is trying to get voters to "switch for a day" to support him.

[Blue_In_AK]

48. I guess I sort of have a problem

with any candidate or supporter (or detractor) asking people to "switch for a day," but there's apparently not much that can be done about it. I have thought that it's kind of unfair for people to assume that Republicans who vote for Hillary in the primaries are presumed to all be mischief-makers while Obama's Republican supporters are apparently all viewed as "converts" and welcome to our party. My guess is there are mischief-makers and converts on both sides. We really have no idea how these Republican turncoats are going to vote in the general.

[Vinca]

19. The best thing that could happen right now would be a PA upset.

Followed by a win in NC.

[powergirl]

22. Increased number of voters help Obama and hurt Clinton

The Obama campaign strategy has always been this. In Texas, where I live, a national Obama worker told me that voter suppression worked to Clinton's advantage. Those, who are motivated for the first time to actually vote, go for Obama, period. This is great news.

[1776Forever]

23. Congressman Patrick J. Murphy (D) PA on TV this morning said he is hopeful for Obama lead..-

He is getting 1,000's of people ready to vote for Obama. It will be people like him, an Iraq War Veteran, to spread the word and get the vote out! He introduced the following last year with Obama and Congressman Mike Thompson:

http://www.patrickmurphy.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=179&Itemid=62

Obama, Thompson and Murphy Introduce Plan to De-Escalate and End the War in Iraq
Tuesday, 06 February 2007

Senator Barack Obama Along With Congressmen Mike Thompson and Patrick Murphy Introduced Legislation That Stops President Bush’s Escalation and Sets a Timeline for Redeployment From Iraq

(Washington, D.C.) – Today, Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), Congressman Mike Thompson (D-CA) and Congressman Patrick Murphy (D-PA) called for a stop to President Bush’s escalation in Iraq and for an end to the war. At a press conference in the U.S. Capitol, Senator Obama and Reps. Thompson and Murphy discussed the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007 – legislation they introduced in the Senate and the House which puts forward a plan to stop the recent escalation in forces and a plan to redeploy American troops from Iraq starting May 1, 2007. Senator Obama introduced the bill in the Senate and Reps. Thompson and Murphy introduced the companion legislation in the House of Representatives. Congressman Thompson is a Vietnam Veteran and a former U.S. Army staff sergeant/platoon leader with the 173rd Airborne Brigade and Congressman Murphy is a former U.S. Army Captain and Iraq war veteran.

“Our troops have preformed brilliantly in Iraq, but no amount of American soldiers can solve the political differences at the heart of somebody else’s civil war,” Senator Obama said. “That’s why our plan not only stops the escalation of this war, but begins a phased redeployment that can pressure the Iraqis to finally reach a political settlement and brings all U.S. combat troops home by March of next year.”

“Our troops have done an amazing job, but success in Iraq will only be achieved by the Iraqis themselves,” said Congressman Mike Thompson. “Sending more troops into the heart of Iraq’s civil war will only put more American lives at risk. This legislation provides a practical plan for ending the war as safely and quickly as possible.”

“As someone who served in Baghdad with the 82nd Airborne, I can tell you that what’s needed in Iraq is a surge in diplomacy, not an escalation of force. This legislation seeks a much-needed political solution and puts forward a tough and sensible plan to end the war,” said Congressman Patrick Murphy. “We shouldn’t be sending American men and women to referee a civil war. Our troops have done their job, now it’s time to start bringing them home and to force more Iraqis to come off the sidelines and fight for their country.”

...........

Thank you Congressman Murphy!

:patriot:

[futureliveshere]

24. wow..didnt know this. good one

[Lucky 13]

27. Hell Yeah! Who's excited?! nt

[InsultComicDog]

29. I'm not convinced of the effect either way

And I don't trust polls much either. There are too many adjustments made in poll results that are based on assumptions that might not be true. There are also a lot of really bad polls - not biased, but done on the cheap - and it is sometimes difficult to sort out the good polls from the bad polls.

That being said, there is still lots of time before the primary. I'm not feeling a lot of energy yet as far as campaign efforts in the neighborhood. I drove around the neighborhood today, (Central Montgomery County, PA) and the only candidate lawn signs are for Ron Paul. I don't see bumper stickers or car magnets or campaign buttons for either candidate. Most conversation I overhear is non-political, except for some guy I heard ranting about illegal immigrants at the gym. Most people seemed to be annoyed with him.

Hillary has had ads playing today, I hadn't seen any prior to today. Obama has had ads playing for the last several days. I'm not sure if either has any impact.

The local news is covering Hillary a bit more but that seems to be only because she's here and Obama isn't. Obama is coming to the state in a couple of days for a 6 day bus tour through the state, I hear.

I personally think that Obama connects a lot more with younger voters than with older voters. And PA has a lot of senior voters. And the key to winning PA is to cut Hillary's margins among those voters, who, incidentally, vote more than any other age demographic. If I see some movement in this area, I think Obama can do very well here, otherwise Hillary will probably carry the state by about 15 points.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. I think there is potential for a Missouri squeaker here when all is said and done...

Alot has happened just over the past couple weeks and we have a month to go. Clinton is finally (albeit reluctantly, based on the initially tepid M$M response) being vetted. Many of the polls are doing "likely" voters and that tends to miss the newest generation of voters being energized at the moment - the college crowd and young people in their 20s & 30s.

PA has the 2nd highest concentration of colleges and universities in the U.S. and if these students can be encouraged to vote here in PA (despite their state of origin), then this will definitely help Obama. As a side note, Philadelphia has the highest concentration of colleges and universities in the state, and for an urban area, is 2nd in the country behind Boston. And note that Obama did win the city of Boston.

http://www.dotnews.com/obamawins.html

Philadelphia is approx. 3 times the size of Boston.

In the recent past, people kept bringing up the Fast Eddie Rendell "machine". But what they don't realize is that the main reason why he is governor right now is because probably 80% of his vote came from what are strong Obama areas - the urban counties, most notably Philadelphia where he was mayor. The cental and western part of the state didn't want to have anything to do with him. And now that he has been firmly identified as corporate-backed DLC, any progressives will be less likely to follow along with his exhortations.

[Orangepeel]

35. I'm hoping he gets within 10.

IMO, that's a stretch, but realistic goal. I don't see any value in setting expectations higher than is realistic.

[mmonk]

44. Latest polling had him down by 10 in PA and up by 21 in NC.

[galaxy21]

37. The more it's acknowlged Hillary has 10% of winning the nomination, the better for Obama,

people like to back a winner.

[Kahuna]

38. I don't know. I'm thinking those repukes registering as Dems as up to no good.

:scared:

[TTUBatfan2008]

40. He won't win...

but he doesn't need to. This is like California and Ohio. Keep it within 10 and with the proportionate delegate system, she won't be able to pick up much because he will likely get some or all of it back with North Carolina, Indiana, and Oregon.

[Medusa]

43. He doesn't have to.

All he has to do is beat expectations and if he can close that gap on HRC, then he's golden.