Latest Federal Review Composite Poll Kerry 48.52 Bush 47.77

[boneygrey]

<img src="">

I don't buy this, but if true there's a lot of work to do.

KERRY SURGE FALLS SHORT
Bush 47.77% - 274 | Kerry 48.52% - 264
From the May 11 to the May 18 Composite Polls, there was a net change of 4.13% in favor of Kerry, taking him from a deficit of 1.41% to a lead of 2.72% -- the highest lead for either candidate since I began tracking the numbers on March 8. Since the Composite Poll methodology constrains weekly swings by factoring in the previous week's composite result, this should be seen as a significant swing to Kerry. That week, Kerry led by 5 in the CNN/Time poll, 4 in the Zogby poll and 1 in the Newsweek poll.

Since then, his lead has shrunk each week. To 2.38% on May 25, and now to 0.75%. What looked like a real surge for Kerry has pulled back to dead even.

And the Electoral Vote prediction is back to 2000, with Kerry gaining only New Hampshire. Welcome to the status quo.

During Kerry's surge, he had taken a lead in the Electoral Vote Prediction, 284-254. But this week, Bush jumps back ahead by the slimmest of margins, 274-264. The difference was the recent Mason Dixon Ohio Poll, showing a Bush lead in that all important Battleground of 6 points. Coming two weeks after an American Research Group poll giving Kerry a 7 point lead in Ohio, and therefore, weighted more heavily, the Composite Poll analysis gives Bush a meaningless lead in Ohio of 0.27%. If Ohio is that close on November 2, you better hope you paced yourself and didn't take too many shots early that night.

And Ohio is why I've changed the map coloring scheme. Any state in which I predict a margin of less than 2%, I'll color white. What's the use in calling it Lean Kerry or Lean Bush when it's going to continue to fluctuate like Cesium 133? The bottom line numbers will still predict a fully allocated electoral vote, but you'll be able to get the details, as usually, at the bottom of the Composite Poll page.

I'll also start reporting a few more numbers this week from the Composite Poll. In the numbers that I highlight, I allocate the undecideds. From now on, I'll give you the raw numbers before that allocation. In addition, I'll also give you an estimated actual popular vote based on the individual state analysis. As I explain in the methodology, the Composite Poll avergage of national polls is used to help determine the margin of lead in each state. But state polls are also used. Thus, the Resulting Popular Vote includes not just national polls, but also the effect of state polls. Here are the numbers.

<a href="http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm">Here is the link with the details</a>

[freetobegay]

1. I will believe this link much more.

Polls in the battleground States, which is clearly in Kerry's favor!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

[boneygrey]

2. Poll

If you read his web site he is clearly for Bush(Although not all of the people are wingnuts, the smart guy doesn't blog often). However, I've read his methodolgy, and it seems he takes great pains to try not to favor Bush. It gives me pause to be concerned by the results.

[papau]

3. That is a great site for state polls! - thanks for posting :-) n/t

:-)

[Nicholas_J]

8. You might also try:

http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Which has the following final results:

Current Projected Tally:

Electoral Votes: Bush 201, Kerry 337
Popular Vote: Bush 45.30%, Kerry 52.87%

The guy who runs this site is a mathematician and statistician.

[JaySherman]

4. What are the credentials of this federalreview?

Is it a credible source? My bullshit antennae are up.

[boneygrey]

5. Credentials

I really don't know. Go read his poll methodology and judge for yourself. He seems to have put a lot of thought into it, whether you agree with his conclusions or not.

[dusty64]

6. The last few polls I've seen

have it a deadheat in Arkansas and Arizona. I expect New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, and PA to go blue again (as I can think of not ONE reason why they shouldn't) and Florida and Ohio are going back and forth. I would hope both are contested, but would prefer to see more resources in Ohio cause every indication is that jebbie and the gang are pulling the exact same shit this time around (only this time with electronic paperless machines).

[cindyw]

7. There is something seriously wrong when someone can lose the popular vote

twice and still gets to be president. It means that electoral votes are not being portioned out properly. That in some states your votes are worth less than in other states.

If you live in Montana you share a single electoral vote with about 303,000 people.

If you live in California you share a single electoral vote with about 658,000 people.

So in Montana your vote is worth twice as much. This why Bush can continue to lose and still be president. The states he wins may have less electoral votes, but those electoral votes are worth more bang for the buck.