Michigan: Kerry 47% - Bush 43%

[PSU84]

2004 SurveyUSA Election Polls

Updated:6/3/04

President, MI 6/3/2004

Kerry (D) 47%
Bush (R) 43%
Other/Undecided 11%
Data Collected 5/31/04 - 6/2/04

Sample Population 567 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.2%

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[UrbScotty]

1. MICHIGAN!! GO BLUE!!

;-)

[Leilani]

2. Surprised it is that close!

Any Michigan DUers know what the situation is?

Michigan always voted against Shrub; they voted McCain in the primaries, & voted Gore in 2000.

[lancdem]

3. It's not that close if you factor in 2/3 of the undecideds

going to Kerry, which is a conservative estimate. Bush got 46 percent of the vote in 2000. He's at 43 percent now, which is a dropoff.

[Lefty48197]

4. I think Michigan is a lock for Kerry this year

we take beatings from the Chamber of Commerce economies, like no other state, and that's bad news for Dubyah.
The McCain victory in the 2000 Republican primary was due in part to many Democrats going to the polls and voting for McCain. Gore was a near lock for the Democratic nomination by that time, so many used their votes for various other reasons. Some were said to try and embarrass Republican Governor John Engler, who had promised to deliver Michigan for Team Bush. (whoops - goodbye cabinet position!) Others (like me) were hoping to send a tempering message to the radicals that control the Michigan Republican party. The message was that we wouldn't hate Republicans if they nominated people like McCain who were honest, plain speakers. They didn't take our advice, and they lost. Too bad for them.

[JI7]

6. Kerry still hasn't picked a representative for Michigan yet

kerry still has to pick someone to head his campaign in michigan. he said he will probably appoint someone to run his campaign in the state in the next few days.

[Doosh]

7. Gore won it by 5 in 2000

so it's not surprising Kerry is up 4 with five months to go, when he picks a VP and really gets the campaign going, you'll see him pull away in Michigan and win by at least 7 points.

[fujiyama]

5. That's better

I know some were freaked out about that Detroit News poll that had Bush ahead...I knew that wasn't the case.

4% makes sense. Gore won it by about 5...so that's pretty close to the same margin. Plus, even if half of the undecideds (that's a low estimate) go with Kerry, he'll win this by around 10%.

I don't think Kerry should worry too much about MI (OH is much more worrisome), but of course there is absolutely no way Kerry can win without MI, so it's important that it stays blue.

[noonwitch]

8. The Detroit News is a right wing paper

The Free Press used to be the liberal paper. Both have gone down-hill in quality since Ed Meese approved the joint operating agreement.