State polls thread! If you have a state poll please post here.

[CalebHayes]

I want to try to get an electoral college snapshot of where we are right now. Please help.

[bluestateguy]

1. VA and PA polls

From Rasmussen:

Virginia (good news)

Bush 47%
Kerry 45%

Pennslyvania (not so good)

Bush 45%
Kerry 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[CalebHayes]

2. Both "to close to call" so Bush: 265 Kerry: 239

kerry's 260-21=239
bush's 278-13=265

[Mattforclark]

3. Virginia is for lovers

which is why I am currently loving it.

Not so sure about Pennsylvania, though.

West Virginia (5 electoral votes) was once solidly D, and is now in play. Virginia was once solidly R (13 electoral votes), and is now in play. Given the disparity in electoral votes between the two, I'm quite happy with that. The important question is whether Bush will make the same mistake about Virginia in 2004 that Gore made about West Virginia in 2000 - assuming that it is his, and that he doesn't have to work for it. I sure hope he does.

This poll is basically from before Kerry's new blitz in VA. Bush has not countered that blitz. Good.

[CalebHayes]

4. I think Mark Warner could make all the difference with Virginia

[Mattforclark]

5. Rasmussen has a NC poll that boosts Edwards, a VA poll that boosts Warner

I'm waiting for the Arkansas poll (the most recent one has a Bush-Kerry tie).

An interesting thing about these polls is that they are taken from the Rasmussen tracking poll, which is showing roughly a dead heat between Bush and Kerry, yet is showing VA and NC significantly closer than in 2000.

[ed_vadem]

6. Well VA Dems will

dancing in the aisles and corridors of the Hotel Roanoke at their state convention today and tomorrow.

This result, if credible, is of course great news, but I would like to see a better confirmation of the trends in a few other states.

The GOPers are fighting in VA like cats and dogs and Mark Warner's legislative victory was very positve, but the new ad campaign only started 2 days ago.

[fujiyama]

7. Worry not

two or three polls have had Kerry with a 4-5 point lead in Penn.

I'm not worried. Likewise, we should be cautious about the VA and NC polls (as I'm sure you know). Either way, I'm glad Kerry is running ads in VA.

Overall, we should be optimistic (but cautious of course).

[WFF]

8. Check these sites:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

http://2.004k.com/

It all boils down to Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.