Good news from West Virginia Mason-Dixon poll

[Anarcho-Socialist]

From http://www.swingstateproject.com

The last few polls in West Virginia have either given Bush the lead or shown the race to be neck-and-neck. Mason-Dixon offers up a new poll which shows Kerry with a pretty sizable lead:

Kerry: 47
Bush: 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)

This is quite an amazing poll if accurate.

[Nicholas_J]

1. Interesting

But I have little faith in Mason Dixon. There polls are notiously lacing in minority voters, and so far, Kerry has been doing far less well in them than he is in other polls. In most cases, Mason Dixon has been polling in direct opposition to all other polls. If Polls hafe Kerry with a double digit lead, Mason Dixin reverses them and places Bush with a double digit lead. They are so far off in realtion to other polls for the most part, that I am sceptical of any results from them.

[Frances]

3. According to your logic,

Kerry is ahead by even more points then.

I am really glad that West Virginia is coming to its senses.

I wonder why.

[mom cat]

4. Maybe they don't like the fact that the administration tried to blame

the prison scandal on the people at the bottom of the heap. Bush has had the corner on populism for a while, but his actions are clear. He is seriously messing with the troops, most of whom come from economically abused regions of the country. The chickens are coming home to roost.

[King of New Orleans]

6. I've never been crazy about M-D polls either

And alot of polls in the South have trouble gauging minority voters this far out in advance.

Of course, W.Virginia is about 97% White so it really shouldn't be a problem there.

[demosincebirth]

2. good news!

[yellowcanine]

5. I don't trust Mason-Dixon. They seem to have some screwy

methodology that causes a lot of wild gyrations - probably better than Rasmussen, though (not saying much).

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Great, I save poll data and Mason-Dixon is pretty good

They are extremely reliable in ballot measures, and generally better in heavily populated states than smaller ones in regard to candidate vs. candidate.

Still, this is excellent news. It's not like West Virginia has flopped dependably Republican. In 2000 they dumped an incumbent Republican governor in favor of a Democrat on the same day as the Bush over Gore fiasco.

I don't understand the lack of emphasis on West Virginia among DUers. The numbers were so heavily in our favor until 2000 that I have to believe, with proper emphasis and finance, it's probably a greater favorite we can retrieve WV than sway Ohio or Florida.

[dusty64]

8. West Virginia is a tossup

this year, that is good news. However, if Kerry just keeps all the "blue" states and adds NH and WV the result is a 269-269 tie. We all know what would happen then.