New Gallup numbers: Kerry still leads

[Rowdyboy]

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=11941

49%-44%

[tritsofme]

1. This poll bucks conventional wisdom

because dubya's approval rating is up, and yet he moves down again in the horserace.

Also, Kerry's lead is the largest amongst "likely voters" in which he leads 50-44, whereas he leads bush by least amount among "adults" when usually the opposite would be true.

This is the first time any candidate held a lead outside of the MOE since April 16 when bush did, and the first time Kerry broke through 50% since March 5, coming off the primary wins.

Overall, I want to say this poll is very good news for Kerry, but the discrepency between *'s approval rating and his performance in the horserace leaves me wondering.

[DaveSZ]

2. His approval rating is still too high for comfort:

Bush Approval

The poll shows an evenly divided public in evaluating Bush's overall job performance, with 49% who approve and 49% who disapprove. Bush's approval has ranged from 46% to 49% in the past four weeks, and has hovered around the 50% level for the past five months. Since the middle of January, Bush's approval has fluctuated only within a narrow range from a low of 46% to a high of 53%, the last time at the latter level at the end of March.

[tritsofme]

3. Agreed

His approval rating puts him in the range of it going either way.

He's not in the range that Clinton, Reagan, or Nixon were at when they went on to win reelection handily, but he has neither slid down to the level where Carter and Bush41 were at when they lost big. However, his approval does slightly mirror Ford in 1976, where the race in the popular vote went on to be very close. I say this election will stay true to the conventional wisdom, and be a nail biter.

These are the May/ early June approval ratings and horse race numbers for the last 6 presidential elections involving incumbents.

(all info from the Gallup Organization)

June 3-6 2004
Bush Approval: 49%
Kerry 50% Bush 44%

May 28-29 1996
Clinton Approval: 53%
Clinton 47% Dole 30% Perot 16%

June 6-8 1992
Bush Approval: 36%
Perot 35% Bush 30% Clinton 22%

June 1-3 1984
Reagan Approval: 52%
Reagan 50% Mondale 42%

June 10 1980
Carter Approval 32%
Carter 33% Reagan 30% Anderson 21%

June 8 1976
Ford Approval: 45%
Carter 55% Ford 34%


June 13 1972
Nixon Approval: 59%
Nixon 42% McGovern 31% Wallace 19%

[WI_DEM]

6. interesting Mondale was within 8-points of Reagan in June '84

I guess it was after the GOP convention that year that Reagan opened up his insurmountable lead.

[flpoljunkie]

4. Kerry leads by 20 pts in blue states, but with Nader included, down to 15

As Gallup illustrates, it's even closer in the purple states with Nader included, down to a 2 point margin. Purple states are those in which either Bush or Gore won by 5 points or less.

And, in all three cases, Nader takes only 1 point away from Bush, but takes away 3 from Kerry in red states, 4 in purple states and 6 points in the blue states.

Nader, your delusional plan to take away conservative votes from Bush is not exactly working. A vote for Nader, is still a vote for Bush, no matter how you try to spin it.

[flpoljunkie]

5. Bush's numbers continue to be dismal, esp. in new areas, Rx drugs, energy

George W. Bush’s Approval Ratings

[tritsofme]

7. kick