I don't think it will be Vilsak--probably someone from south

[WI_DEM]

I don't think Vilsak will be Kerry's VP. The recent polls which show opportunities for Kerry in the south--West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Louisiana make me think that Kerry will go the traiditional route and select a running mate from the south to run with a Northeasterner. So in the end it probably will be who we think: Edwards, Clark or maybe Graham.

[Padraig18]

1. It just makes sense, really.

Every EV we get in the South is TWO * has to get elsewhere, and the picking for * are pretty darned slim elsewhere...

[TexasSissy]

2. You may be right. I hope not Graham.

I like Graham, myself, but I don't know if he'd have broad appeal. He's sort of milky, wishy-washy himself.

But then Graham might appeal to Florida, which is a very important state.

Kerry is hitting Louisiana hard, even though it has only six electoral votes, I think.

I like Edwards.....but I don't think Edwards would pull in a NC vote for the Dem. Party. But Edwards might appeal to other southern states. Young-looking, enthusiastic, optimistic, has a message. But will Kerry choose someone who might steal his thunder when they're on the same stage? Is Edwards capable enough and experienced enough to be President, which is a criteria for VP?

And being a former Clark supporter, I think Clark would make a great anything in the executive administration. I think Clark would have appeal in some southern states and maybe even some northern states. I think Clark would play well in several areas. But Clark cannot debate, as we saw. How important is that, I wonder? It's not a plus, but is it important?

[AP]

4. If you want to win FL, I don't know why Kerry'd pick Graham over Edwards.

I don't know how many times it has to be repeated, but exit polls at the FL primary in which Edwards came in second with 10% of the vote showed that 40% of primary voters wanted Edwards to be the VP. IIRC, neither FL senator broke 10%.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

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[TexasSissy]

38. You're talking about Dems only, I think. To win FL we need ALL voters'

To win FL it's what ALL voters think, incl. Independents and moderate Republicans. We already know that the Dem. voters who voted in the primary are voting for Kerry, no matter WHO he selects as VP.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. A one on one debate is a very different animal

With 9 or 10 candidates sharing the spotlight, like they were in the Democratic primary "debates", you get a contest featuring "sound bites" and best at hijacking questions to say whatever you wanted to say in the first place regardless of what was asked. A one on one format would be much more conducive to Clark. He would actually have the time needed to make points and drive them home as he has gotten so good at doing during TV interviews.

Aside from that, I see it much as you do; Clark, Edwards, Graham, just maybe Nelson or Nunn or Cleland. Graham is a straight shot to win Florida (Nelson too I suppose). Both Edwards and Clark, for their different reasons, can play well in the South and in selected States, and to selective audiences, outside of the South. Clark and Edwards have become legitimate National figures.

[TexasSissy]

3. You may be right. I hope not Graham.

I like Graham, myself, but I don't know if he'd have broad appeal. He's sort of milky, wishy-washy himself.

But then Graham might appeal to Florida, which is a very important state.

Kerry is hitting Louisiana hard, even though it has only six electoral votes, I think.

I like Edwards.....but I don't think Edwards would pull in a NC vote for the Dem. Party. But Edwards might appeal to other southern states. Young-looking, enthusiastic, optimistic, has a message. But will Kerry choose someone who might steal his thunder when they're on the same stage? Is Edwards capable enough and experienced enough to be President, which is a criteria for VP?

And being a former Clark supporter, I think Clark would make a great anything in the executive administration. I think Clark would have appeal in some southern states and maybe even some northern states. I think Clark would play well in several areas. But Clark cannot debate, as we saw. How important is that, I wonder? It's not a plus, but is it important?

[mzmolly]

6. I agree. The only other sensible conclusion is Dean as he has some

ability to counter the Nader factor?

I wonder if there are any polls that show what effect Dean would have on the issue of Nader???

[salonghorn70]

7. Dean

Any Nadar votes that Kerry would pick up would also mean many more votes lost because the average voter does not consider Dean ready for prime team. The old rule of picking a VP who does no harm would be violated. All you would hear from the Republicans is Dean, Dean, Dean. How many times do you think the Iowa speech would be replayed?

[mzmolly]

8. The Iowa speech? I think the media has been outed for distortion

and would think twice about re-hashing that misleading/slanderous crap.

Have you seen any polls that show Deans effect on the Nader factor?

www.dontvoteralph.org as you can see he's having a major impact.

[Still_Loves_John]

9. The simple truth is

that Dean would turn off more moderates than he would pick up Nader-voters, and the Naderites probably consider Dean too conservative anyways.

Face it, and I say this with all due respect, the undecideds don't like Dean. I'm not saying there's any good reason for this, and if they knew about Dean they would probably like him more, but you don't want to pick a vice president that you have to teach the voters to like. It's pretty much a figurehead position, and the general rule is to pick someone as noncontroversial as possible. Let's face it: the people who are still undecided are generally not undecided because they are well-informed but conflicted, they are undecided because they don't follow politics at all, and are EXACTLY the type of people who would be swayed by something as innocuous as the "I have a scream" speech.

[mzmolly]

11. I don't think moderates would flock to Bush if a moderate like Dean

were on the ticket.

I also think people are getting to know Dean (outside of the media caricature) and they like what they see.

As I said, I would be interested in polling data that shows his impact on the ticket. We can speculate all day long, but I think he would bring more passion/people to Kerry then he would lose.

[Still_Loves_John]

30. The problem with that is

""I don't think moderates would flock to Bush if a moderate like Dean""

The problem with that is that Dean doesn't really come off as a moderate. The stregnth of the moderates is that they seem like levelheaded voices of reason, and Dean, at least in people's minds, does not fit that mold.

[mzmolly]

34. "People with a mind, know Dean is a moderate"

He's a "fighting centrist" is what he is.

Thank Molly Ivins for that description. :)

[WI_DEM]

12. Dean has hardly been discredited

In just the last few months since he withdrew from race he has been vindicated time and again on Iraq. He has a good, moderate record as a long serving Governor. With the exception of Kerry and Edwards he has gotten more votes than anyone in the primaries/caucuses. In fact, since dropping out of the race over 600,000 people have still voted for Howard Dean.

[cosmokramer]

13. I don't know what effect he would have on the Nadar factor...

...but adding him to the ticket would have a lot of democrats pulling their hair out in disgust. The problem with Dean is not his ideas...it's Dean.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. I like Dean. A lot

And many Dems would also cheer having Dean on the ticket. But I think he wouldn't add as many votes for Kerry as some other choices would, nor would he attract enough new votes from any key battleground state. Dean would probably alienate SOME potential swing voters, and the new votes he also WOULD attract wouldn't adequately compensate for that loss COMPARED to how a few other potential VP choices might fare in that sum total regard.

I think we could do far worse than nominate Dean for VP, in terms of winning this election, but we can do better also.

[mzmolly]

16. Unless we see some data, all anyone can do is quess.

If we consider the states that Nader could swing the wrong way? Also, I really don't think moderates (once considering Dean's 12 years Governing Vermont) without one scream speech ;) would run away?

[cosmokramer]

19. Party insiders...

...have shunned him. All the talk in my state is "Thank God Dean didn't get the nomination". And OHIO is so important.

Like I said, I do not oppose his ideas at all. Fact of the matter is, he is already pegged as 'nuts' by the GOP, and there is simply no advantage whatsoever of having him on a ticket. Lots of other contenders out there without the image of an unpredictable 'lunatic', whether or not that assessment of Dean is true. He is simply not a good mouth piece for the VP slot.

[mzmolly]

21. Many would disagree with you.

http://www.draftdeanforvp.org/updates.html

Including Sherman from Ohio ...

In 2004, a Kerry/Dean ticket would be the most perfect balance of foreign and domestic policy in U.S. presidential history. – Sherman in Ohio ;)

[cosmokramer]

26. So Sherman wants to lose Ohio to Bush?

I am one of those "party" people...Dean would never, ever, EVER help Kerry win Ohio...not in a million years. I would be my mortgage on it.

[mzmolly]

27. So your a 'party person' in Ohio. I know the 'party people' don't speak

for 'the people' in most cases.

I'm not convinced that Ohioans would shun Dean, and unless I see *data* to that effect, your opinion is just that.

Some "Party People" who support Dean in Ohio.

http://ohio.fordean.org/OH/endorsements/

Dean has much support in Ohio from what I gather-even from 'Party People.' :party:

[cosmokramer]

28. You are just plain wrong on this, sorry.

Did he have a relatively strong base here during the primaries? SURE! Still, Clark had more delegate candidates than Dean BECAUSE he is more moderate, and he had a broader volunteer base. Actually, Kerry and Edwards had the LEAST amount of ground support and financial support of all the candidates. Gephardt was the party-insider darling, and is still desperately wanted as the VP choice by all of the Ohio unions, and many of the insiders.

Ohio is a 50/50 state (check the Secretary of State website). It is industrial/farm land, and home to many, many veterans and military. Many more moderates live here than do liberals. And there isn't a republican in this state who would cross over and vote for Dean, which would be absolutely necessary for Kerry to win.

The 'data' you seek is easy to find as it is in the demographics for the State of Ohio. (And in case you are wondering, Clark had MORE political endorsements in the state than any other candidate.)

Kerry will do well here, provided he chooses a running mate who is positioned more towards the center. Right now, the vote is split well within the margin of error between Kerry and Bush. His VP choice could mean the difference between winning Ohio and losing Ohio. If he is smart, and I believe he is, he will go with the easy win and choose a moderate with which to share the ticket...it may not be Clark, and it may not be Gephardt, but it definitely ain't Dean.

[mzmolly]

29. Again that's your *opinion* others in the party disagree with you.

:hi:

Can you show me the Clark endorsements, I've showed you Deans? I don't doubt you, but I will ask for your documentation. Also, Im in Minnesota, and I think Dean will do better then Clark here, so perhaps it's a toss up huh?

Also consider Pennsylvania and New Jersey - which go from the Kerry column to the Bush column with Nader in the race. Dean would help in that situation. I don't think Clark would.

[Still_Loves_John]

32. And just one more thing

because this bothers me:

"Can you show me the Clark endorsements, I've showed you Deans? I don't doubt you, but I will ask for your documentation. Also, Im in Minnesota, and I think Dean will do better then Clark here, so perhaps it's a toss up huh? "

Whooo, so many problems here. One, yes, there are people in Oklahoma who like Dean, but they are by no means the majority. You have a little anecdotal evidence backing up your idea, but thats it. And you want documentation that Clark will do well in Oklahoma? He won their primary! And its certainly not a toss up if Dean is doing well in Minnesota. Minnesota is solidly democratic. We're going to win Minnesota. If we don't win Minnesota, we seriously screwed up somehow. You don't choose a VP who would help us win Minnesota by a larger margin, you choose a VP who can let us win a battleground state like...Oklahoma (I feel like Bill Schneider).

[mzmolly]

33. No you misunderstood my request. I asked for documentation regarding

the claim that Clark had the most endorsements in "OHIO" ... The person I asked for documenation was responding to a list of Dean endorsements...

Minnesota is a proverbial 'swing state' there are certainly no guarantees.

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. I agree with you about the guessing part

And I could be enthusiastic about a Kerry/Dean ticket. If he ended up on the ticket I would work hard to make sure my misgivings were proved wrong.

[mzmolly]

25. Thanks man!

:hi:

[Still_Loves_John]

31. I hate to feel like I'm picking on you, but

once more, the problem is that the undecides at this point aren't really well informed people. They are the type of people who decide that they like one guy's ad more than another. They would not care at all about Dean's record as a governor, they would just know that he was that angry guy who yelled.

[JayS]

37. "the undecideds at this point aren't really well informed people"

There are a lot of undecided voters that fit that description but there are a lot of them also that are perhaps too well informed. I could only make a wild guess as to the mix and have yet to see any decent studies that look at this issue. I guess you could call the well informed voters the "both candidates suck" crowd.

The latter are still biding their time waiting for a better picture of where things stand closer to the election.

[mzmolly]

15. Somehow I doubt we'd have a bald constituency?

;)

People have issues with Clark as well ya know?

In fact, Dean (as WI-DEM) pointed out continues to rake in the votes today. Clark didn't have near the votes Dean did, but I dont poo poo the idea of having him on the ticket.

I look to what each man would bring to the race, and I think Dean would offer much that isn't being considered.

[Padraig18]

17. Gov. Dean is a 'wild card' choice.

On the one hand, he could prove to be a HUGE boost to the Kerry campaign for the many reasons people have stated; on the other hand, he could prove disastrous for the reasons other people have put forward. As a Dean supporter, I'd be thrilled if he were offered the spot, but I can certainly understand why some might be leery of him as the VP nominee.

[JI7]

18. it's a northeasterner thing

i think it's a pretty common understanding among many that for democrats being from the northeast is seen as a liability in certain parts of the country in a presidential race. so if the presidential candidate is from there they pick someone from another part of the country. i don't like this myself but it's a reality we have to deal with and take into consideration if we want to win.

so it's not really the speech or any of the other things which are keeping dean from being considered as vp. it's the geography thing.

notice that of those on kerry's possible vp list we know of so far none of them are from the northeast . and even those rumored of are not from there either. in fact i believe all of those we know of are either from the midwest or the south. and it makes sense when you look at history and what the best strategy is to win.

[mzmolly]

20. I agree that is the bigger issue. However, I think Nader may require

a change of strategy?

http://www.draftdeanforvp.org/

• Mobilizes a base of 700,000 progressive supporters for the Kerry/Dean ticket.

• Proven appeal to crucial Nader supporters, independents, moderate Republicans and disaffected Democrats.

• As one of the strongest voices against the Bush administration’s reckless policies in Iraq, Dean complements Kerry’s wise strategy for internationalizing the occupation and bringing America’s troops home.

• Dean’s 11 year record of success as Governor of Vermont perfectly complements John Kerry’s 21 year record of bi-partisan leadership in the Senate.

:hi:

[JI7]

22. it would be more helpful if there were some polls

especially in swing states . and to compare those polls to ones with edwards, gephardt and others as vp.

personally i think we can win with two northeasterners but i do think it will be tougher than with more regional balance on the ticket. i don't think we would have much chance in the south outside of florida and west virginia. but i do think it's possible to win.

[mzmolly]

24. I agree, polls would be very helpful. But, if Dean isn't a consideration

'yet' I spose there won't be any. I do hope they consider him and poll, especially given the fact that Nader could do such damage in swing states.

http://dontvoteralph.org/start.htm

We answered this question by completing a comprehensive study of every poll that measures Bush/Kerry head-to-head and Bush/Kerry/Nader in a three-way race. Through May 14, there have been 37 such polls taken since Nader declared his 2004 candidacy. Using the authoritative, non-partisan website www.PollingReport.com, plus all other polls found through a search at Google1 , the results are conclusive.

Of the 37 polls reviewed, 32 show Nader hurting Kerry, 4 show no effect, and 1 shows Nader hurting Bush (and that by a scant 1%).

The table at right, “How Much Nader Helps Bush,” shows all 37 polls, and for each how much Bush gains in his margin vs. Kerry when Nader is included. While the percentage swings to Bush are all single-digit, the consensus is overwhelming, directly discrediting Nader’s claims.

In addition to national polls, we found state and special-interest polls that similarly compared Bush and Kerry head-to-head and with Nader added to the mix. Here the results were even more striking. Among other things, these polls (the first six in the above table) show Nader flipping New Jersey and Pennsylvania from Kerry to Bush, and causing an 8% surge for Bush among the large Arab-American vote in four critical swing states. These results alone would almost certainly swing the election to Bush.

The above highlites why I think Dean needs *serious* consideration.
:shrug:

I just noticed the "New Strategies For New Threats" sign under Kerry in your sig line ... I think it's fitting for the subject matter, don't you? ;)

[Warren DeMontague]

35. Edwards

is the obvious choice. Maybe too obvious, but- what the hell. Just please don't saddle us with someone uncharismatic and plodding and dull, like Dick Gephardt, god bless 'im.. I'm sure Gore thought Lieberman was a choice that made sense, but I think that fell back into the "safety" calculations that ended up hurting him in the election-- and, man, was he unpleasant to watch on t.v..

I've been saying Kerry-Edwards all along.

[Moloch]

36. I really hope it isn't Vislack...

Polls show that Kerry would LOSE Iowa if Vislack was his running mate.