Elections 2004 Update - Dean On The Way Down

[meow mix]

http://www.moderateindependent.com/v1i17elections2004.htm

New Hampshire was already looking like the possible launching pad for a Clark victory if he were to get a second or strong third place showing there – a state where, with local boys Dean and Kerry duking it out, Clark was not expected to make much of a show. Originally, the thought was that Dean would take Iowa and New Hampshire, but Clark could get some notice and momentum and then catch up on February 3 with wins in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and some other southern and western states in play that day.

Dean having a close battle with Iowa favorite Gephardt was a sign of strength for Dean, showing he could rise from nothing and stand toe-to-toe with the man who was supposed to run away with both the labor endorsements and the Iowa title.

But now, with it being a three way race, Dean is being seen, once again, to have peaked, while other candidates seen as stronger on defense issues are rising. Kerry’s jump in Iowa is a huge step forward and a huge momentum stopper for Dean.

he's toast =)

[mot78]

1. To defend Dean here

He's not "peaking", as his poll numbers continue.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. Yup. Dean is still doing well

and Clark is rising. That about covers it.

[Padraig18]

3. *cough, cough, bullshit, cough, cough*

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=53912&mesg_id=53912

:hi:

[xultar]

29. Funny, when Clark supporters were actually being fair and positive re HD

you have to go and be negative.

Interesting

[TrueAmerican]

4. Toast?

Come to think of it, the picture does look like him. Same expressions and hair style.

[TrueAmerican]

5. "I had toast in Vietnam" says General Wesley Clark

"while Howard Dean was skiing. Howard Dean is not toast."

[lurk_no_more]

13. LOL

” JAFO”

[WillyT]

6. I'm Sure The Other Candidates Are Glad They're Not In Dean's Position !!!

"If I come in third or fourth, I win."

Or some such nonsense.

:hurts:

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. Yes, Dean is still the favorite. n/t

[bitchkitty]

8. Spin, ballerina, spin!

Dean's still going strong, and his momentum will only keep building despite attempts to stop him. It's laughable, really. Reconcile this silly article with this DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=53912&mesg_id=53912

Dean's going to win, I know it!

[stickdog]

9. NOT THE MODERATE INDEPENDENT!!!

If only wishing could make stuff true ...

[jonnyblitz]

19. stop

I am trying real hard not to laugh. :silly:

[dfong63]

10. meanwhile, Dean is doing surprisingly well in OK and SC

[unfrigginreal]

11. More about what's *coming* from Clark?

Like "He'll start surging in the polls in 2 weeks" - Early December
Like "Big endorsement on December 20" - Who was that again?
Like "Big idea coming next week"- I can hardly wait.

Does Clark ever deliver?

[lurk_no_more]

14. Truth is a little harder to deliver

than made up reinvented crap, but he's doing OK.


” JAFO”

[BeyondGeography]

12. Dean's problem

is that he has offended three people who are capable of hitting back hard and they will: Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman.

Now Dean supporters will say he has "offended" them because he is beating them, and that's partly true. But the Dean supporters' continued inability to accept the downside of his tactics; i.e. mocking the very nature of these lifetime Democrats' commitment to the party, baffles me. He has created real animosity, and he will be on the top of the attack chart in Iowa for the next two weeks.

They will hit him on his tax policy (Edwards will also clean up there), his tendency to have to explain himself whenever he makes a foreign policy statement, and they will question HIS loyalty to the party, given his implication that his supporters are non-transferable. Kucinich may even jump in and mention the continued lies about being the only antiwar candidate. There will be a steady drumbeat about his qualifications and electability, and it will come from all sides.

And how will Dean counter all of this? It's hard for me to see how he does it on substance. He ran a DLC governorship in Vermont, a fiscal conservative who, apart from civil unions, really can't point to much that separates him from the pack as a progressive. So he'll probably have to lash out at some point, which will only lose him more support.

Now, sitting in New Hampshire and avoiding all this mess is Wes Clark, who will be able to devote his attention to connecting with voters there, passing Kerry for second place and positioning himself as the anti-Dean. As a Clark supporter, the decision to sit out Iowa looks better and better to me, because the Hawkeye State is just going to turn into a Howard Hatefest.

If Howard survives all of this, he will have posted a well-earned victory. I still wouldn't consider it the best result for our party and our ability to win in November. Not by a longshot.

[w13rd0]

15. I don't even know how to do the yawning icon...

...but it doesn't matter...

yeah, dang Dean, peaking again, he's so toast. he was toast twice last week in a ten minute period. please let me know when you clean the spittle from your crystal ball...

[meow mix]

27. lol

i know,
just thought it was a fun article thats all =)

back to drooling on ouija board! heehee

[quaker bill]

16. oops

Per CNN poll Dean has gained 9 points on Bush since Christmas and easily defeats all dem candidates in a one on one.

You have the movement right just in the wrong direction.


Dean vs. Clark: 46% to 32%
Dean vs. Lieberman, 50% to 32%
Dean vs. Kerry, 51% to 29%
Dean vs. Gephardt 53% to 28%

[HFishbine]

17. Reality Check

Latest National Poll -- CNN/Time, Dec. 30 (Previous month in parentheses)
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dean: 22 (14)
Kerry: 10 (9)
Lieberman: 9 (11)
Clark: 8 (12)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Latest Iowa Poll
---------------
Dean: 42%
Gephardt: 23%
Kerry: 15%
Edwards: 10%

http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031211demcaucuses.pdf

NH Daily Tracking Poll
(Previous days in parentheses, newest to oldest)
---------------
Dean: 37 (37, 37, 37, 37)
Kerry: 15 (16, 17, 18, 19)
Clark: 13 (13, 12, 12, 12)
Undecided: 19 (16, 17, 18, 18)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[goobergunch]

18. We now return you to your reguarly scheduled reality.

Looking forward to the 2004 Dean Convention in Boston!

[Cheswick2.0]

20. Clark says "Howard Dean was eating toast on the ski slopes, when I was

turning people into toast in Viet Nam".

Just kidding, couldn't resist!

[slinkerwink]

21. a case of myopia, perhaps, in your case......

because it's painfully clear that Dean isn't in a downward spiral no matter how much you might hop for that to happen.

[Scott Lee]

22. He's peaked! He's peaked! He's peaked!

Oh wait....he was supposed to have peaked months ago....

Dang that Dean, he just won't quit peaking!

[Padraig18]

24. "Dang that Dean, he just won't quit peaking!"

I know, and it's annoying the holy crap out of everyone else! :evilgrin:

[SheilaT]

23. Where's a link

to the cartoon that shows Dean being sworn in as President while someone is saying something about he's peaked too soon?

[babzilla]

25. we already did this one last week

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=30174

dear god, not the 'Moderate Independent'
that will surely be the final nail in Dean's coffin.

After all, those of us who have been following the honorable Betsy R. Vasquez for lo these many years know






a motto for politics and porridge alike, goldilocks would love it.


edited to repost my response to last week's thread on this very same blog entry because everyone loved it the first time.

[meow mix]

28. whups

missed it sorry =)

[farmbo]

26. Err...care to correct your post line?

New CNN poll shows Dean has surged from 37% in a head-to-head with Bush, to 46%... from a 21% spread to a 5% spread.

Your man Clark is still in single digits nationally against other Dems:

http://drudgereport.com/flash.htm