Federal Review Composite Poll (6-8-04): Bush 281, Kerry 257

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

THERE'S THE DATA - NOT A LOT OF CHANGE
Bush 47.43% - 281 | Kerry 48.96% - 257
June 8, 2004

Although Kerry's lead in the national composite poll increased slightly this week, he lost ground in the electoral college as recent polls swung Oregon over to Bush - barely. Despite the top line EV prediction showing a bigger lead for Bush, most of the movement was in Kerry's favor. That's big, considering that there were 28 separate polls this week for individual states, covering 25 different states.

This Week’s Polls
Gallup (Bush 43 | Kerry 49)
Zogby (Bush 42 | Kerry 44)
American Research Group (Bush 45 | Kerry 46)
Investor's Business Daily (Bush 43 | Kerry 41)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 44.9 | Kerry 44.7)
Iowa Electronic Market (Bush 51.9 | 47.1)

Last Week’s Polls
Quinnipiac University (Bush 43 | Kerry 42)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 44.8 | Kerry 45.0)
Iowa Electronic Market (Bush 50.9 | Kerry 49.0)
Bush State Gains
Oregon

Kerry State Gains
None

Toss Ups (slight lead of less than 2%)
Florida (Bush)
Missouri (Bush) *NEW*
New Mexico (Kerry)
Ohio (Bush)
Oregon (Bush)
Pennsylvania (Kerry)

[bushwakker]

1. I saw a recent MO poll that had Bush up 10

not good news.

[lancdem]

2. Ohio should be leaning Kerry

L.A. Times poll has him up by 3. If you give Kerry Ohio, he has 277, enough to beat Bush.

BTW, what poll has Bush ahead, even slightly, in Florida?

[lancdem]

3. That was the L.A. Times poll

That's a red state, but Kerry may have an outside shot at winning there. Other recent polls there showed the race much closer.

This line is encouraging: "Despite the top line EV prediction showing a bigger lead for Bush, most of the movement was in Kerry's favor. That's big, considering that there were 28 separate polls this week for individual states, covering 25 different states."

[Zynx]

4. North Carolina

Should be a toss-up, as should West Virginia.

If you are going to give those to Shrub, give the Dems Florida, Oregon, Penn. and Ohio.

[bushwakker]

6. Starting to think of a popular vote win for JK and heaven forbid

a 2000 style elec vote "win" for AWOL.

[fujiyama]

5. The fact

that VA and NC are pink and not a dark red, means that Bush is hurting...