The Clark Scenario - Democratic Underground

mot78

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Fri Jan-02-04 06:58 PM
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The Clark Scenario

Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 07:01 PM by mot78

Here's my take on how Clark can get the nomination:

Iowa:
Although he's skipping Iowa, his chances of becoming the "anti-Dean" rest on knocking out Gephardt and Kerry. Gephardt needs to lose to Dean and drop out in order to winnow the field down. However, there's also been recent speculation into Kerry actually coming in second in Iowa, which could make him into the "anti-Dean". Kerry needs to come in third here to prevent himself from gaining any momentum in New Hampshire and beyond.

New Hampshire:
Clark could do fine with a third place finish that doesn't include Kerry or Gephardt picking up momentum from Iowa, but upsetting Kerry and coming in second is what we really want, because it gives him the needed momentum to run a stronger campaign. If he comes in second in NH, Kerry would probably be finished (unless you believe people who claim Kerry's mortage is so he can stay in longer than that) and Clark would effectively go on to become the "anti-Dean", although he'll still have Lieberman and Edwards to contend with.

February 3rd:
Clark has the best chance of winning South Carolina because of his background. Aside from that, he also has to fight Dean in Arizona, New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. It's hard to say how many of these states he'll get, because he he becomes the "anti-Dean" resulting from a strong NH showing, he can pick up money and volunteers needed to take on Dean. I think Clark could carry Oklahoma, Delaware, possibly new Mexico, and Missouri because I'm assuming that Gephardt's absence would benefit Clark. I don't know enough about South Dakota to stay who it would go to. I also feel that Liberman and Edwards will be finished on February 3rd, but I can't predict how DK, CMB, and Sharpton will fare, since they're not really running to win, but to give notice to their ideas and grievences.

Between February 3rd and Super Tuesday, I think Clark and Dean will be evenly split. I've heard some Dean supporters on DU argue that the majority of these states could go to Dean, and I say it's impossible to predict where they'll go, because if Clark becomes the "anti-Dean" then he picks up momentum and supporters from the other, defunct campaigns.
As they duke it out, the media will try everything they can to inflame their fight. Look for the SCLM to make this out to be the "DLC-Clintonista vs. McGovern II", which is something we can't afford to be escalated, because if Clark gets nominated with this caricature over his head, Nader and the Green candidate could benefit from disgruntled, ableit uninformed non-voters, who supported Dean and Kucinich, and are not ABB.

Super Tuesday:
This could very well be the final showdown. Whoever wins this may very well be the nominee. However, assuming Dean still has the robust organization, he could (although I could be wrong on this) drag the primaries out a few more weeks, my guess would be to please some of his supporters, who may feel like that because the primary schedule was set up by the DNC to annoint a winner instead of letting the Democratic process continue. If Dean doesn't persue this strategy, then Clark would be the nominee by mid-March.