Hillary Will Withdraw, And Her Stature Soars - Brent Budowsky

[WillyT]

April 11, 2008
Hillary Will Withdraw and Her Stature Soars (Brent Budowsky)
@ 3:14 pm

<snip>

Ignore everything you hear on cable talk shows. This is what will happen, and why.

First, sometime between the days after the Pennsylvania primary and the days after North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton will drop out of the presidential campaign, endorse Obama, and watch her stature among Democrats and independents soar.

Second. The campaign is over. Period. The only way that Hillary can win is, to quote a former Louisiana governor, if Barack Obama gets caught in bed with a live man or dead woman. Nothing is impossible, bad news could strike either candidate, but is it highly unlikely and nothing Hillary can do would change this equation.

Third. The Clintons know this. Any pundit talk to the contrary is pathetically out of touch with reality, as most pundit talk on television is. What is happening now is a Clintonian exit strategy. If Hillary does withdraw as I predict, when I predict, her popularity skyrockets and her negatives among Democrats and many independents fall substantially. In the unlikely event lightning strikes against Obama, Hillary is still around with far higher positives.

Fourth, Hillary only hurts herself by attacking Obama with questionable tactics. Her negative ratings go through the roof. Presidents cannot be elected this way. Period. End of discussion.

Any ignorant or trite talk to the contary from the pundit class, who have so often praised negative tactics as brilliant that were totally destructive to Hillary, are nothing more than gaseous emissions that contribute to global warming.

I repeat: Hillary’s negative attacks against Obama hurt her numbers more than Obama’s.

Fifth, there is a very clear pattern to the polling over the last three months almost without exception. When Hillary takes cheap shots at Obama, Obama remains nearly even to slightly ahead of Hillary, while both candidates lose to McCain.
When Hillary avoids the cheap shots, which to her credit she has been doing the last few days, the Obama lead over Hillary rises, but both Hillary and Obama defeat McCain.

Sixth, any discussion that Hillary might prefer McCain defeat Obama, which some of her attacks give credence to, are politically deadly to Hillary’s ambitions long term and short term.

Conversly, if Hillary drops out as I predict, when I predict, not only do her favorables move far up and her negatives move far down, but she would get a fair share of credit for an Obama general election win, with no risk of blame for a McCain win that would be politically deadly to Hillary.

Many (but not all) Clinton insiders generally agree with these assessments, and anyone who says anything to the contrary on the talk shows is either lying or not wired in.

Obviously events can change the fortune of either candidate, any day, but the most likely scenario is that Hillary drops out within the month and later concludes it was the wisest decision she would ever make.

For Hillary the presidential dream is not dead. This is not her year. If Obama loses, with the scenario descibed here, she has a huge shot in 2012, without Hillary being blamed for 2008. If Obama wins, under my scenario, Hillary has a very good shot in 2016 and many very good career options between now and then.

<snip>

Link: http://pundits.thehill.com/2008/04/11/hillary-will-withdraw-and-her-stature-soars/

I think that's about right.

:shrug:

[Xipe Totec]

1. It's hard to make predictions

especially about the future.

What will happen will happen, when it happens and not before.

[Larkspur]

2. If Obama wins the nomination and presidency in 2008, Hillary's Prez ambitions die

that's why she's pulling the Tonya Harding act on him.

[ima_sinnic]

20. not so--there are presidential elections every 4 years, she can run again in 2016

I say 2016 because I am assuming that Obama will win in 2008, then win again easily in 2012.

[VolcanoJen]

31. And by then, I hope his Veep pick will run and win us another eight years.

And that person ain't gonna be Hillary. :-)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Hillary Will Withdraw But Her Stature Is Toast.

It's over.

Ever so slowly, we will close down the Evan Bayh Memorial wing of the Democratic party.

[WillyT]

4. Not Convinced About Her Stature Either, But...

there will a lot of gratitude.

For those not completely wired in, they will be thankful and see her as heroic for not taking this thing to the last dead dog.

If she wants political healing and rehabilitation, this is the path she must take.

:shrug:

[Asgaya Dihi]

28. I think she's done

I fully expect to see Clinton and Clinton supporter clips from what's already been said and done repeated in the general election, in either McCain or third party attack ads. If Obama loses with the help of soundbites from Hillary she's done, period. I can't see her coming off in those circumstances any better than Nader did as far as reputation goes.

If Obama wins she's still done as President though not otherwise, probably. She's got enough baggage now and adding another 8 years to her age before she starts the first day of the job is going to add that as an issue too. 4 years she could do if she were still electable, 8 I doubt more. Possible though I suppose.

I hope Obama does win and that she does come out of it ok by helping him, because that's really the only way she can. If she's seen as in any way even partially responsible for another 4-8 years of repubs she has no future that I can see.

[Demeter]

6. At Least In My Books It Is

I can't predict what my fellow citizens, Democratic or not, will think of the lady.

[City Lights]

14. That's my feeling as well. nt

[Cha]

37. I know America's memory is short and all of

hilary's lies and desperate pandering this election season will fade with time But hilary being hilary.. will make sure there's new shit on her toast.

And hilary and bil will have done their part in closing the wing of the "evan bayh memorial wing".

[roguevalley]

42. I agree on this, RUMMYisFROSTED. She can never make it up to

me or anyone I know. People in my area think she's awful.

[ekwhite]

44. If she withdraws and campaigns for Obama, she can regain her stature N/T

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

51. Perhaps.

If she does it sincerely and not with "book bag" sincerity. However, each passing day, with its comcomitant kitchen sink part, makes the sincerity less believable.

[ecstatic]

45. Maybe slight slight remorse that the female president idea is gone

for good, at least for now... But I got over that a long time ago. I wouldn't mind if I never heard from her again after this. She has no credibility with me anymore.

[DJ13]

5. I would like to believe that

But I doubt Hillary's stature "soars" after the way she's acted.

I think she'll have to remain out of sight through the GE in order for her to have any hope of repairing the damage to her reputation.

[WillyT]

9. That's Not The Way It's Gonna Work...

She'll withdraw, make her peace with her supporters, throw her support behind Obama, get a major speaking slot at the convention, and campaign with Obama where asked to for the GE.

She won't be his VP, but she'll be given some new leadership position in the Senate, or even the Governorship of New York.

Dat's da way these things roll.

I just want it over NOW!!!

:shrug:

[DJ13]

11. Yes, she'll announce her "support"

Yes she'll make a convention speech as a payoff for getting out of the race.

But I seriously doubt she (or Bill) campaigns for Obama in the GE.

She's infamously petty when she doesnt get her way, and I bet she slinks off to NY and the Senate and keeps as low a profile as she can.

[CatsDogsBabies]

7. I think her stature will improve if she withdraws

In fact, I don't think there is anything else she can do to imporve her stature but withdraw.

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Edwin Edwards, and the original quote referred to "girl" and "boy":

"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."

Budowsky needs to do some simple research or, if he thinks he should always use "man" and "woman" instead nowadays, then he should call it a paraphrase, not a quote.

Yes, this is off-topic, but it really bugs me when people change quotes because of contemporary tastes (and I suspect that's what Budowsky was in fact doing) and then say that they're using a quote. If you change it, it's not a quote.

[Eurobabe]

10. I think she's pretty much politically toasted

and Bill's reputation is permanently scarred.

I'm not sure it matters what she does at this point, maybe to the non-politically wired yes, but to the grassroots -- the Clintons are on my shitlist. I just don't like these people!

[WillyT]

13. Hell... I'm Wondering If Her Own Supporters Will Forgive Her...

if she withdraws???

:shrug:

[Eurobabe]

41. She is not going to withdraw

Unless she is forced out by party elders who can't be blind to the damage and divisiveness she is causing, she will be in this until the bitter end.

I hate her. I am not sure again whether I can vote for her. Her latest Bitter-gate/Gun-gate fauxrage has me furious.

[joeybee12]

12. Agree partially, but in 2016, she'll be 68...

...ain't gonna happen. If people have trouble with a man's age, imagine what they'll say about a woman running who is that old! If Hilary trounces BO in PA, then drops out, her numbers will soar because she'll go out on a high note.

[WillyT]

16. If Hillary Were To Trounce Obama In PA, Then She Can't Get Out...

which brings up an interesting point.

What's the tipping point for PA?

If Obama were to lose in single digits, I think the above scenario is still valid. But double digits ???

:shrug:

[Lisa0825]

17. Women's lifespans are generally longer than men's.

I'd feel much more comfortable voting for a 68 year old woman than a 72 year old man.

[SKKY]

15. "With a live man, or a dead woman."

Now THAT is rich!

[IDemo]

18. It's a bit annoying to read opinion stated as absolute fact

but Budowsky is probably correct on 80 percent of this, regardless. I just feel Clinton has permanently damaged her reputation with a good many more people than he realizes, and early withdrawal or no won't change that.

[Yurovsky]

19. But she did earn a bronze star for her heroic actions in Bosnia ...

12 years after the fact. It's nice that the military will go back and retroactively award her this well-deserved medal. Makes me proud to be an American.

[IDemo]

21. Was it a bronze star?

I thought it was a brass ball.

[Yurovsky]

22. lol! she does have a pair ...

too bad she only uses them for self-interest. Might've come in handy when the IWR came up for a vote.

[jbm]

23. She will be President in 2012..

Obama does not have the numbers to win the GE. I hate that we'll have to endure another 4 years of repub nonsense, but I don't believe McCain will be as bad as Bush. By 2012 the Dems will have realized that elections are a big picture game, and we'll send Hillary to the White House.

[Liberal Gramma]

25. And pigs will fly

[roseBudd]

26. "She will be President in 2012" are you saying sh'll be more likeable 4 years from now?

[guyanakoolaid]

27. She will never be President. Never.

She has burned too many bridges in this current scorched-earth campaign of hers. Some will never be rebuilt. She has continued to wage a nasty war against the person she knows is going to be the nominee, with nothing but self-interest in mind. It's bad enough she was a neocon-appeasing warmonger before this campaign, but now her words have left a bad taste in many Democrats mouths that will never go away.

[Cooley Hurd]

30. If Obama loses, yes, she has a great shot at 2012...

...but Obama is very unlikely to lose in November. You underestimate the bitterness of the electorate. Yep, I said BITTERNESS!:thumbsup:

[VolcanoJen]

36. See, you can't get elected President if nobody likes you.

That's always been her problem, but I did think she really had a shot at this thing in 2008. But every since, she has done nothing but exacerbate her negatives.

2008 was Hillary's "now or never" moment. It's looking like "never" to me.

[JVS]

40. No she won't.

[splat]

24. Let everybody run as long as they can -- that's traditional

I don't know where hounding people to quit came from -- scaredy cats?

[Armstead]

29. He apprently wrote this before her current Bash Barak Spree today

If she is looking to reconcile the two campaigns, she's doing a typical lousy fucking job of it.

Today she has been relentlessly doing McCain's job for him by branding Obama as an out-of-touch elitist.

[AllentownJake]

32. I think this has been disproven

By the events of the last 24 hours.

[TexasObserver]

33. Hillary is not that rational.

if she were, she'd already be out of the race and she wouldn't be trying to hobble Obama for the general

[Texas Hill Country]

34. If Obama wins... how is it that she has a shot in 20016 when there is a incumbent VP prolly running

I mean I understand that she will prolly win in 2012 if Barack looses now... but how does 2016 work if Barack is in for 8 with a VP that wants to be Prez?


This and 2012 are her last shots...


Conversely...Barack has TONS of time.

[Malvino]

35. Obama has no problem with Hillary running

Obama has said this publicly.

[Jim Sagle]

38. Hogwash!

[saltpoint]

39. I have posted over the past year several positive comments about Sen. Clinton.

This winter's primary/caucus match-ups have prompted a reconsideration.

If a candidate begins race-baiting other Democrats and is seen to be praising Pukes at the expense of other Democrats, THIS long-time Democrat stops sending flowers.

IMO Hillary Clinton has run one of the most embarrassing, ugly, chump-driven, and ego-fueled campaigns I've seen in the Democratic Party for many decades.

Agree with the article about unforeseeables, but absent such an unforeseeable, Barack Obama is our nominee and the next President of the United States.

[ekwhite]

43. This corresponds to what my boss told me the other day

He spent last week lobbying Congress for a bill our company supports. He mentioned to me that in every congressional office he went to, the idle conversation went to the rumor that Hillary Clinton was preparing to drop out of the race, and was looking for a way to do so while saving face. Every congressional staffer he talked to, whether in the House or Senate, was talking about WHEN Clinton would drop out of the race, not IF she would drop out of the race.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

46. Are the people at the Hill Scottish by any chance?

it would appear that most soothsayers are from the Scottish media?

[LiberalZrule]

47. Wow...

that is a lot of supposition and guesswork. Lets throw a monkey wrench in there..say Hillary wins and Obama endorses Hillary? Polls have showned that very few Obama supporters will backlash against Hillary if he loses...McCain will lose this election no matter what.

[FrenchieCat]

48. "few Obama supporters will backlash against Hillary if he loses"

You are in for a rude awakening, homie!

The difference is that Obama supporters won't shout it from the treetop, they just won't be showing up. Watch.

[LiberalZrule]

49. Then they

have no legitimacy as democrats....Party unity folks. Party unity. So what if Obama wins. Unify the party. So what if Hillary wins. Fight for what we believe in and get rid of selfish feelings others will have if their choice loses and takes it out on the winner. Party unity. Bill clinton said it best.."In the primaries you fall in love in november you fall in line."

[Name removed]

50. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[tekisui]

52. After PA, end it on a high note. She had that chance after OH, and blew it.

She' broke. Dropping after PA makes sense. NC will embarrass her again.

[SoFlaJet]

53. I truly hope she doesn't destroy her own stature

in the senate by tearing Obama to shreds in a futile endeavor. She has a great shot to lead the dem majority there, but NOT if she keeps making bumper stickers and doing what she's been doing as the desperate candidate. Jake said it in another thread that the senate could end up being a cold cold place for her in a couple of months