The gamble that is Howard Dean

[absyntheNsugar]

As it stands right now Dean IS poised to win the nomination. Although I'm a Clark supporter, those of you know me know I was a Dean supporter and still support him to some extent.

Anyway, none of us should kid ourselves. Dean is a gamble, but despite the long shot it may look like, there are some cards in Dean's hand that could just win the entire kitty.

- Old Fashioned Republican support. Exactly as was mentioned, the "Dean Republicans" could give us the biggest edge on this one. If this is to be true, expect the Northeast to be his biggest bump. I actually see Dean taking the ENTIRE Northeast. Including PA and NH.

- Neo-Libertarian support. Some of these guys supported Perot. A lot of them backed Bush I. They're pissed about the Patriot act and the budget. Expect this in CA, and a surprise state like TX or NC.

- The 18-25 set. Although not *the* straw that broke the Camel formerly known as Bush I's back, they did help in getting Clinton elected. Every little bit counts in this election, and IF these guys surpassed the numbers they did in '92 they could very well be that straw. Expect them everywhere, and with full strength Dean could even bag some solidly southern states.

All in all though, I think Dean cannot pull a Gore and must concentrate in the states where he can win. (You really can't blame Gore for that one though - he was doing cleanup after Nader.)

Of course, part of me fears the worst - that the Republicans are supporting Dean because they think he'll pull a McGovern - and they want to ensure that.

But I have met lots of Republicans who I know don't play dirty like that - and going to meetups just to pose as a Dean supporter seems like a lot to go through just to rig things.


ON EDIT: one last note - if Dean can pull this off, Victory would be oh so sweet.

[stickdog]

1. And Clark is a gamble. And Kerry is a gamble.

And Lieberman is a disgrace.

[slinkerwink]

2. thanks for saying Dean's electable as anybody....

:hi:

[absyntheNsugar]

6. This time around we have some good candidates

Dean and Clark both can stand against Bush (if they only would work together tho.....ARGGGHHH!)

Kerry - I dunno. I don't want to Kerry bash, but I just don't see him sweeping the nation. Same with Gephardt. Same with any of the others.

Also, just because we caught Sadaam doesn't mean half the country likes the war now. The anti-war stance that Clark and Dean are sticking with will serve them well.

[tedoll78]

3. I think it's a good gamble.

First, Dean's doing something right as far as the "bringing new people into the process" category is concerned. People who have never donated to a campaign, people under 30 giving to a campaign, the number of small donors, press reports of Democratic events being boosted in attendance via new people attending, new participants attending the monthly MeetUps, etc. If this pattern holds, look for larger-than-usual turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire connected to Dean victories. That would be confirmation that these symptoms can be connected to a rise in voter turnout. Dean's been claiming that he can get 3 or 4 million new voters to the polls. If the race comes-down to another 2000-style 50-50 affair, those few extra million votes will come in handy. Very handy.

Second, any of the top-tier contenders are a good gamble because of the huge non-party organizations preparing for this election. George Soros (Americans Coming Together) comes to mind immediately, along with MoveOn. These groups can help us overcome the financial advantage that the Chimp will have over our nominee's campaign. Advertising, get-out-the-vote campaigns in 17 electorally key states, etc. And even if they succeed in bumping-up turnout by a mere 1 or 2%, that could be the difference in November.

Third, the Greens will not be as much of a factor as they were in 2000. Again.. another 1 or 2% could be the difference.

Fourth, Dean isn't as liberal as many would portray him. That 'A' from the NRA is one thing that makes me think he's more electable than some of the other candidates. The NRA was a huge factor in the last election, giving WV to Bush over Gore, and making many Great Lakes states too close for comfort. With the NRA neutered, Dean has a chance to wrap-up most Gore states a bit earlier so that he can concentrate on some swing states.

I think Dean's a decent bet. Anyone we put-up can give Bush a good run for his money. But no matter whom we nominate, we're going to have to work our @sses off..

[rumguy]

4. good analysis

[rumguy]

5. and you're right if Dean does win- oh man, it would be sweet

just imagine what Faux and the freeps would do...they'd be struck speechless for the first time in their miserable lives...

[Shanty Oilish]

7. I hope you're right

Wish I could see it. I'm backing Kerry (for the time being) as the best all-around in the race. I really think Gore was the right man for us all, true liberal, experienced, knows his way around the Hill. An idealist with practical abilities. Proven vote-getter. That the race would have been a rehash of 2000, doesn't seem so unattractive now. But...he's not in the race :(
Dean has his shortcomings, that's for sure, but I'll overlook it all if he wins! I suspect his campaign is going to be stunned at the ferocity of the opposition, they (and Dean himself) don't seem prepared as yet. That "outsider" shtick is good up to a point, but then you need insiders to help you along.
(And perhaps that is why Gore is out...)

[KaraokeKarlton]

8. Dean will definitely bring in a lot of votes Democrats don't typically get

He always did this in Vermont. He neutralized the argument on guns. There are a ton of voters who only vote Republican because they don't trust Democrats on guns. Dean can win those voters easily. If you look at past Vermont elections as an indicator, there is no way Bush can even hope to beat Dean. Dean easily took at least around 20% of the Republican vote in Vermont and most of the Independent and Democratic votes as well. Some elections he got darn near half the Republican votes (over 40%). If you count all Democrats, all the greens who are going to vote against Bush, all the new voters Dean has attracted (there are tons of these folks too), all the single issue gun voters who are mad at Bush, moderate Republicans disgusted with Bush, Libertarians disgusted, etc.... if you REALLY think about it, there is NO WAY Bush can win this against Dean...NONE, Bush will be toast, period.