New Composite Poll: Kerry 282-Bush 256 (6-15-04)

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

THE OSCILLATING RACE
Bush 47.17% - 256 | Kerry 48.66% - 282
June 15, 2004

Last week, Kerry lead the composite poll by 1.54% and this week, he leads by 1.49%, but the electoral vote picture has switched from last week's Bush lead of 281-257 to a Kerry lead of 282-256. While the state by state picture continues to oscillate between the candidates, there's been a clear trend in Kerry's favor in the national composite results, but that trend has slowed and for the last month, there hasn't been much change.

This week's composite poll includes the suspicious LA Times poll, showing a Kerry lead of 6 points. I discussed why it is suspicious here. Without that poll's results, the composite poll would show a dead even race.

This week's analysis includes 9 new state polls for Illinois (Kerry +13), Kentucky (Bush +13), Michigan (Kerry +2), Missouri (Bush +11), New Hampshire (Tied), Ohio (Kerry +3), Pennsylvania (Kerry +1), West Virginia (Kerry +6) and Wisconsin (Bush +2).

[dusty64]

1. Good news in WV and

Ohio, what could possibly be up in Wisconsin and Missouri. Other polls I've seen have it VERY Close in Missouri and Kerry slightly ahead in Wiscosin.

[Beetwasher]

4. Yeah, WTF IS Up With WI???

I'm hoping that's just an abberation...I thought Kerry was supposedly doing well in Nevada too...

[TNMOM]

14. Wisconsin's going to be tough, but winnable

I live in a Milwaukee suburb in the thick of Repugville. Good news, though, I'm seeing more and more Kerry stickers...

[Dying Eagle]

16. I wont let the Shrub get WI

I have been working my ass off, volunteering and talking to anyone who will listen. I have converted some people, including a girl who said "She loves Bush" now, she is "Not so sure"

[LynneSin]

2. We just got a major boost in Pennsylvania thanks to the Philly Daily News

This is on the cover of our major newspaper - the one that is read by all the commuters in the area. I found it promently displayed at the cashregister in the cafeteria where I work

Great news isn't it!!!

[phillybri]

3. They friggin rock...

I can't say enough good things about them now!!!

[Massacure]

5. That wisconsin seems fishy

Everybody in my school hates bush. Almost our entire class of 2004 is going to vote for Kerry.

Of course there will be a good chunk of them going off to other states for college.

[JohnLocke]

6. Wow... look at Virginia.

[phillybri]

7. NC and AR, too...

Edwards, Clark, Warner???

[DaveSZ]

8. What's up with Missouri?

Is it turning from a bellwether state into a red state?

[RummyTheDummy]

10. I'm starting to think it should be written off

It seems to be trending Bush which according to this site is exactly the opposite of where most of the other battleground states are heading. Doesn't look real good. If it's that way 6 weeks from now, I think you have to think about focusing energy and resources elswhere.

[fujiyama]

12. I wouldn't completely

write it off. The one thing we shoud learn from '00 is that several states came much closer than anticipated, and had Gore been able to campaign more in those states, he might have won.

However, you are correct that MO is a bit of a stretch...Gore didn't lose it by a very large margin. 3-4% if I remember correctly. It's about as likely that we'll win MO, as it is that Bush will win MI... Not very likely, but possible.

[janx]

9. This is still too close. We can't afford another election like

the one in 2000.

[sandnsea]

11. Oops

[dusty64]

13. Kick.

Just because.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

15. what really scazres me is that this thing is in DIEBOLD range

in a lot of states, setting the stage for dumbya's election night 'dewey defeats truman' upset