New NPR Poll: Bush Leads Kerry 49-48 Among Likely Voters

[TheStateChief]

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/polls/jun2004/interview.pdf

I believe this poll is from Stanley Greenberg's firm. Shows things very tight to say the least.

[returnable]

1. Key stat - Battleground States: Kerry 53 Bush 44

That's always nice to see :kick:

[lancdem]

5. That IS great

[MoonRiver]

8. Yes, indeed!

Where it counts, Kerry wins big!! :bounce:

[fujiyama]

2. This is good news

compared to the Harris and Pew polls which had Bush several points ahead.

It seems as though the race is still pretty much a dead heat.

[eaprez]

3. Damn ...

...that Nader! Will be interesting to see poll # after F 9/11 has been out for a few weeks.

[lancdem]

4. And this was actually done awhile ago

while the Reagan mourning was still going on.

[dolstein]

6. There's something wrong with the sample

Only 40% of those surveyed said they voted for Gore in 2000, whereas 48% said they voted for Bush in 2000. 6% said they voted for Nader or another third party candidate, and 2% either didn't know who they voted for or wouldn't say. Where did all the Gore voters go?

[Journeyman]

7. Look at some of the breakdowns, though. . .

2000 vote: 48% Bush, 40% Gore

Liberal, Moderate, Conservative: 19%, 37%, 41%

Education: 42% college or post-graduate degrees

Race: 80% White, 9% Black, 7% Hispanic


All of these factors are somewhat skewed from the national norm. They're in line with NPR's audience, but out of kilter with the rest of the nation.

Take this report with a grain of salt and a heaping teaspoon of incredulity.

[tritsofme]

10. But it is in line with who is more likely to vote

Conservatives, whites, and the elderly are more likely to vote than any other groups.

Conservatives and whites are also more likely to vote GOP.

Finding the likely voter is the best way to get actual results.

[Beetwasher]

9. What's W/ This "Likely" Voter Bullshit?

New WP/ABC poll:

--snip--

In a November ballot test, Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters, with 6 percent currently supporting independent candidate Ralph Nader. Last month, Kerry and Bush were tied. With Nader out of the race, Kerry's advantage swells to eight points, clear evidence of the continuing threat that the Nader candidacy poses to the Democrat.---snip--


But by a 52 percent to 39 percent margin, Kerry is seen as more honest and trustworthy -- a troubling finding for Bush whose truthfulness in the run up to the war in Iraq has been called into question.--snip--

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A58293-2004Jun21?language=printer

I'll take the WP/ABC poll, which has a pro-Bush slant to begin with over this likely voter bullshit anyday.

[TheStateChief]

11. WP/ABC poll is of adults

WP/ABC poll is of adults (not likely voters or even registered voters) I believe.

Good news nonetheless.

[Beetwasher]

12. Yeah, So? How Are They Determining "Likely"?

Every poll I've seen w/ the "likely" category, it essentially means more "Pro-Bush" as his numbers are withou fail better w/ "likely" voters, whomever they may be...Their certainly NOT voters who voted in the last election, the majority of whom voted for Gore and you'd be hard pressed to convince me their voting Bush this time around. As another poster pointed out, where did all the Gore voters go in this poll of "likely" voters?

[MontecitoDem]

13. Likely voters are usually

registered voters who actually voted in at least 2 of the last 4 elections (that's my understanding). Sometimes the definition varies. They do tend to be more conservative because for whatever reason a greater precentage of registered republicans vote regularly than registered democrats. Something for us to work on!!