Is that they are basing a large number of state going to Bush base on a recent alnket of state polling by FOX NEWS which has polls giving BUsh a large lead in a number os states where evert other poll places either Kerry with a slight lead, or Kerry and Bush running neck and neck or stae were Kerry had clear leads like Michigan. I have been developing a by watching the polls that whenver states start looking too strongly in favor of Kerry, a conservative grou pays for a poll in that state in order to keep public opinion in those states from the appearance that the state is lost to Bush. State level polls are one of the strongest influences on the undecided, and if too many polls crop upshowing one person in the lead, the undecided are more likely to vote for the lead candidate than the person who is not leading (the old no one wants to back a certain loser effect). One of the tendancies of the undecided is that they are wishy washy (they have no strong political conviction one way or the other, so they are most often swayed by appearances and not platforms. 9 out of 10 of the recent polls that have turned states from leaning towards Kerry to slightly leaning to Bush have been done by Fox, so I am rather skeotical of this electoral vote count.
Thats exactly what happened with the Pennsylvania situation. The last poll was done by FOXm and their p
For Example DC's Political Report does the same thing, but more accurately decides the leaning of a state, not by considering the last poll, but by an average of the last few polls to determins who is really ahead, and who is trying to skew the polls. So in this poll the latest Electora college votes are as such:
Kerry lead in 14 states with 195 Electoral Votes
Bush Leads in 18 states for 168 Electoral Votes
12 States too close to call for 151 Electoral Votes
7 states with no polling date for 24 electoral votes:
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm
Fox's political desires are clear to anyone who watches them and they were notorious for the efforts they made to sway the 200 election and were criticized for calling the election for Bush before the polls had closed, leading many people who would have voted late to call it a night.
If you compare Fox's National Polls to other pollsters, you will see a clear differencein Fox;s results compared to GAllop. ABC. CBS, Rassmussen. all of who have polls having Kerry and Bush running neck and neck:
• CBS/NYT: Bush 43, Kerry 42, Nader 5
• Rasmussen 6/28: Bush 45, Kerry 45
• FOX News: Bush 47, Kerry 40, Nader 3
• Gallup: Bush 48, Kerry 47, Nader 3
• ABC/WP: Kerry 48, Bush 44, Nader 6
If you check out the differnce between Fox and everyone else, you will note that Fox is the only pollster that has Bush winning by multiples ofthe MoE of its polls.
THey are trying to sway the opinion of the undecided. Hopefully this can be prevented.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
